Finally, if the fear of Covid-19 remains as intense as at present, there will be a significant reduction in the costs incurred by political parties — an unintended but desirable consequence
On Tuesday morning, Home Minister Amit Shah is scheduled to address a “massive rally” aimed at the BJP’s supporters in West Bengal. The posters for the meeting are already circulating on social media and the State BJP has encouraged individual leaders, MLAs and MPs to post posters of the meeting with their faces.
It is unlikely that any of these posters will be in evidence on the walls of houses in either Kolkata or other urban clusters of West Bengal. This absence is significant because the political culture of the State deems that a public meeting addressed by a political stalwart is preceded by posters, buntings and wall writings. There is a thriving industry in West Bengal that is centred on agitprop and there is fierce competition between political parties over high attendance. The biggest meetings are traditionally held at the Brigade Parade Ground in the Kolkata Maidan, just adjoining the iconic Victoria Memorial. Slightly smaller meetings — although huge by national standards — are held either at the Shahid Minar or the crossing of Chittaranjan Avenue and Bentinck Street. There is a set drill for public meetings and, by and large, political parties of all shades adhere to the rules.
On Tuesday morning, however, there will be no crowds either at the Kolkata Maidan or the Chowringhee crossing. BJP flags will not be in evidence and there will be no saffron-draped manch where the local leaders will wait the arrival of Amit Shah. That’s because the whole event will be virtual. The Home Minister will be speaking from his residence in Lutyens’ Delhi and the party faithful will watch the proceeding from either a computer, a tablet or a smart phone. At best, some enterprising local leader will install a giant screen in the mohulla and a crowd will watch the speech from there. But even here, there will at least be a pretence of social distancing for the cameras, although, as a rule, the citizenry of West Bengal tend to remarkably casual about adhering to the norms of either a lockdown or social distancing.
Amit Shah’s speech will be closely scrutinised by the entire class. What he has to say about the BJP’s aggressive campaign to oust Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress from power will no doubt be interesting. After all, the leader from Gujarat has acquired a formidable reputation as a doughty political campaigner and shrewd strategist. The importance of the Tuesday meeting will, however, be different. The entire political class, cutting across parties, and all political observers will be trying to assess the impact of this new form of virtual campaigning that has been forced on the country by the Covid-19 crisis. Will grand events such as this one have the same impact and, indeed, appeal as a traditional public meeting? What will be the online viewership? Will it have to be supplemented by live telecasts on local channels? Will people view it in real time, keeping in mind that internet connectivity is still erratic, or will they view a recorded version at leisure? These are unanswered questions that need further probing.
At this point I can only narrate my own experiences of political engagement using video calls and other social media platforms. Since the lockdown began on March 25 and I found myself stranded in Delhi, unable to get back to the scene of action in West Bengal, I have spoken and participated in at least 20 programmes, big and small. Since Zoom — the platform that despite its China connections offers the best service — can accommodate only a maximum of 100 participants — if you want more, the charges are quite prohibitive — there is the tendency to link it with some other social media platform that has facilities for live broadcast. The only disadvantage is that while Zoom allows interaction with the audience, the other live broadcasts involve a silent audience. This can be disconcerting to speakers who depend, as I do, on audience reactions to mould a speech.
At the same time, Zoom has been invaluable in communicating with smaller and more targeted audiences. It has become the best substitute for face-to-face meetings with, say, 50 to 60 people. The additional advantage is that the audience is spared the trouble of commuting — and all the hassles that involves. My feeling is that these conference calls and small webinars have managed quite successfully to overcome the problems caused by the restrictions on travel. However, while these can maintain the activist network and bolster morale, they are of little use in communicating directly with ordinary people, particularly those uninvolved in day-to-day politics.
The issue is relevant in the context of the Assembly election in Bihar that is due by September-October this year. The elections in Assam and West Bengal are due by May 2021. If the Election Commission deems that the elections will go ahead as scheduled — despite the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic — there will have to be many adjustments. At one level there will have to be administrative modifications, keeping in mind social distancing. I believe that if the levels of participation are to be ensured, the EC should consider extending voting hours, even contemplating two-day voting. This would have presented huge logistical problems in the case of a general election but a State Assembly election is more manageable.
As for the political issues, I feel that the importance of TV is certain to be enhanced considerably. Secondly, because contacts with individual voters are certain to be more restricted, there will be a renewed emphasis on the existing local networks of parties and candidates. The incumbent may even enjoy a modest advantage, unless there is fierce anti-incumbency. Finally, if the fear of Covid-19 remains as intense as at present, there will be a significant reduction in the costs incurred by political parties — an unintended but desirable consequence.
