Many say that Thailand enjoys a ‘coup season’. Therefore, the country has not been able to be either governed by a democratic leadership or a full-fledged military regime for a long time. The power-tussle between the urban and elite minority and the poor urban majority is there at the heart of the Thai politics
Thialand s currently gripped by a wave of students’ protests. Though initially the demonstrators raised the banner of revolt against the Government of Prayuth Chan-ocha, gradually they are trying to bring forth an alternative to the existing political system. The young protesters are venting their ire against the Thai royalty as well. This is quite serious as it may embolden other political actors like the supporters and sympathisers of former Prime Ministers Thaksin Shinawatra and Yingluck Shinawatra. However Thaksin’s party, known as Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT), has been banned in the country after his political exile in Dubai since 2008. But Yingluck’s Pheu Thai Party is fully active in Thailand. Moreover, the Red Shirt Movement volunteers who have been rallying behind the fight against the Bangkok elite might give the protests a new twist.
Today the students are voicing their rage against the two eternal symbols of power in Thailand i.e. two M’s — the monarchy and the military. But why?
The long held demands and frustration of the people have finally surfaced, but this time, the Thai students have taken the lead. The student movement, known as “Free Youth”, has been able to gather thousands at the Democracy Monument in the heart of Bangkok.
The protesters have outlined broadly three main demands: First, the dissolution of the Parliament i.e. resignation of the Prayuth Government and new election; second, amendments to the Constitution of Thailand; and third, an end to intimidation and persecution of political opponents.
Apart from other demands, the new movement also highlights two very striking issues: One is the reversal of a 2019 order that allowed two army units to be positioned right under the King’s own command, and second, another law passed in 2017 which gave the King complete control over the crown’s all property holdings. These laws, along with other unpopular initiatives launched by the Prayuth regime time and again have irked the public. The students and other youth in Thailand have really acted as agents of change. The movement, started in January, has however witnessed slight loss in momentum due to the Covid pandemic.
In fact, there has been a marked decline on the power, prestige and long arm of reverence of the Thai Monarchy with the death of truly people’s king Bhumibol Adulaydej in 2016. And when the mantle passed on to his lesser known and very unpopular son Maha Vajiralongkorn, the aura and charisma around the palace and the King gradually declined. King Maha Vajiralongkorn today mostly lives in Germany and he can rightly be called as a King-in-absentia who simply wants stability and peace back home. And for these compulsions of the King, the nominally civilian Government of Prayuth is ruling the country with the full backing of the armed forces.
Since the coup of 2014, the activists ranging from the Red Shirts to the present have been accusing Prayuth of using the Thai military’s proximity to the monarchy to enhance his own grip on power. However, Prayuth and his cronies deny such allegations; what cements his closeness with the King is the sustained stability that he has guaranteed so far to the country. After overthrowing the popularly elected Government of Yingluck Shinawatra, the men-in-uniform took over under the leadership of Prayuth. And he has ruled the country with the National Council for Peace and Order since then to 2019, when he nominally ended the junta rule, with a blatantly rigged election to shed his uniform. And it is very clear to all that the military retains full control over all political institutions across the country.
Lately, Prayuth is seriously concerned about the growing demonstrations around the country, particularly in the capital city. What is aggravating his problem is the call by another student group who issued an unusually clear 10-point demand for reform in the political system. Thousands of demonstrators are chanting “Long live democracy” and demanding the resignation of Prayuth who took over in 2014 coup and to put an end to military domination in politics. In fact, these students have set an example by questioning the actual role and powers of the monarchy that used to be a taboo for decades in Thailand. But whsat surprises the international community is how anyone within Thailand dares to question or criticise the King or the monarchy. It is a country that zealously guards the royalty. Hence, the unique law called “Lese Majeste” is in action in the country which leads to severe punishments to anyone who tries to defame the monarchy. This law might land a person who criticises the King in prison for 15 years. It is considered one of the strictest in the world. It has been increasingly enforced since the coming of the Prayuth regime simply to clamp down free speech and anti-government protesters. Even the top global governance bodies such as the UN have been repeatedly calling Bangkok to amend these draconian laws.
Meanwhile Prayuth has warned the protesters against dragging the monarchy into the movement. But what comes as a big relief to the demonstrators is that the King has asked the Government not to book anyone under the infamous “Lese Majeste” law.
Around the same time, Thailand’s economy is on free fall. It is witnessing the worst-ever economic downturn since the Asian financial crisis 2008. The political crisis in Thailand shows the grotesque inefficiency crept long into the civil-military set-up of the country. The student movement might lead to a showdown between the military-backed Prayuth Government and the student groups who are demanding immediate reforms.
International human rights organisations such as the Amnesty International say that the Thai Government is using the police forces to suppress the students’ movement. And the group argue that this appear to be a new crackdown on freedom of expression.
Political instability in Thailand has its roots in the turbulent past of the country. Many say that Thailand enjoys a “coup season” now and then. Therefore the country has not been able to be either governed by a democratic leadership or a full-fledged military regime for a long time. The power-tussle between the urban and elite minority and the poor urban majority is there at the heart of Thai politics. It seems to be a permanent stalemate for this middle income group East Asian nation. Other two factors that strongly influence the country are — coups as a means to resolve political crisis and the indecisive perennial role of the royalty in politics.
Youngsters played key roles in a multitude of political, economic and social movements around the world. What they look for and demand is change. Fiercely reclaiming their spaces in public squares, the young people are literally threatening the very existence and relevance of ones who are at the threshold of power. However, unseating the governors would not herald any immediate solution to the governed, including the young. The road ahead for stability and peace could only be an earmarked plan for piecemeal engineering i.e. gradual change. Probably accompanied by constitutional amendment or change in due course of time.
The fragile democracy in Thailand has always been under threat. Its breathing space is limited. In fact, the assault of assorted collectivist ideologies such as militarism, socialism, imperialism, authoritarianism, etc, has carefully hastened the march of liberalism in the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries all along. And Thailand has not been an exception. Is it leading to an Arab Spring kind of scenario in Thailand? Like all those protest movements marked by the absence of charismatic leaders and a definite agenda and propelled by young anger and social media activism, if the current Thai movement quickly passes into oblivion, then it would be very depressing for the movement itself.
Questioning the King and the military-backed Government of the country has highlighted the current movement around the world. But then the protesters need to realise that the deep symbiosis between the Thai palace and the military is still intact. Though the political representatives who are in power disdain the very system they are running, they are not dislodged from the seat of power by anyone. It indicates how weak and unorganised the opposition political forces are in Thailand. Certainly, the student activism has altered the political scenario in the country. And it is the right moment for the Opposition, including the Thaksin followers, to rally behind the youngsters. This might force the King and the power brokers in Bangkok to rethink opening of political dialogues involving all competing forces. This might restore the lost democratic heritage of Thailand.
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)
