Patient can infect 406 in 30 days if lockdown not followed: ICMR

| | New Delhi
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Patient can infect 406 in 30 days if lockdown not followed: ICMR

Wednesday, 08 April 2020 | PNS | New Delhi

Patient can infect 406 in 30 days if lockdown not followed: ICMR

Union Health Ministry on Tuesday cited a study by ICMR to claim that one COVID-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days if s/he does not follow lockdown measures, implying that spread of the infection in the country cannot be curbed without strictly adhering to social distancing recommendations. 

“The affected person can infect more than 400 people in 30 days. The analysis is based on a mathematical model of coronavirus transmission done by the ICMR. In medical terms —  this phenomenon is known as R-naught or R0, a virus’s basic reproductive number — an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness of infectious agents,” Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary, Union Health Ministry, said at a routine Press briefing here.

“If we follow the proper measures and social distancing, the infection rate can be cut down to just 2.5 people per patient in 30 days,” Agarwal said.

Lockdown is a very important intervention in terms of management of COVID19, he said on the day India entered the third week of the lockdown.

The official, however, refused to comment on a query that whether the Government plans to extend or end the lockdown.

Agarwal said the Government’s cluster containment strategy to tackle Covid-19 has yielded good results. “The strategy for cluster containment which are amenable to management and adopted by the Government are showing positive results, especially in Agra, Gautam Buddh Nagar (Uttar Pradesh), Pathanamthitta (Kerala), Bhilwara (Rajasthan) and East Delhi. The same strategy has been adopted in Mumbai and other districts also,” he said.

He also said the Smart Cities are ensuring collaborated efforts to monitor the suspected cases of COVID-19.

Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, Chief Scientist of ICMR, said 107,006 tests have been conducted so far. “As many as 11,795 tests have been conducted in 24 hours, of which 2,530 have been done in private labs. As many as 136 Government labs are working and 59 private labs have been given permission,” Gangakhedkar said.

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