The Delhi Assembly election campaign which started as a three-corner fight among the incumbent AAP, the BJP and the Congress has now narrowed down to a direct fight between the AAP and the BJP with the Congress appearing to have given up hope with its low-key canvassing for the February 8 election.
Hard-selling its five years of development works and freebies provided to Delhiites, AAP convener and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejrwial is hopeful of retaining power.
However, the AAP is facing a stiff challenge from the BJP under the stewardship of Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Besides promising freebies like Rs 2/kg atta, the BJP tried to capitalise on the anti-CAA protests in Shaheen Bagh.
The AAP throughout the poll campaign played safe by not getting drawn into the Shaheen Bagh debate and kept its focus on development works and freebies. It used other tactics to corner the BJP by raising the question of the saffron party’s inability in not announcing its CM candidate.
It is too early to jump to any conclusion about the election outcome, poll pundits think the AAP is likely to retain majority in the Assembly.
However, observers feel that aggressive campaigning by the BJP is likely to help it improve on its 2015 tally of three seats. A few even predict that the saffron party may get closer to the half-way mark in the Assembly.
The Congress, whose prospects are dim, is likely to increase its vote share in five boroughs, including Delhi Cant, Kasturba Nagar, and Muslim-majority Mustafabad, where party workers hope to gain strength.
The action packed political battle of the national Capital's turf has transformed into rich versus poor as the BJP's trump card — Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) has not been accepted by the majority populace.
Despite different social demography — national Capital has been divided in three groups which are: Higher income group, middle and lower. As per the data analysis of previous results of the Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabha elections both, it is estimated that 60-70 per cent vote share will of higher income group may go to BJP, 20-25 per cent with AAP and 5-10 per cent to the Congress and other parties. In the middle income group, 50-60 per cent of voters appear to be inclined towards the BJP while 40 per cent are with AAP and 5-10 percent with Congress and others. However, in lower income group, a high 85 percent of vote is very likely to go to AAP, 10 percent to BJP and five percent with congress and others.
Delhi plays host to people from 'different socio-economic background and from different region of the country. What is pretty discernible in the highly surcharges political arena, is the changed in narrative among the common people.
Previously, Delhi was primarily a city of Punjabis, Sikh, Baniya, Muslims, Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and,Hindi speaking Poorvanchalis from Uttar Pardesh and Bihar ). Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) Badal is not fighting elections with the BJP, due to its differences on CAA, the hardcore Sikhs and Punjabi (Khatri) voters appear to have tilted towards AAP.
According to Delhi Sikh Gurdwara Parabandhak Committee, Sikhs have glorious past of battles with Mughals, and at the community has this confidence to take on Muslims if there was a need. Sikh sangat is miffed with the thought of Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sagh (RSS) that Sikhs are part of Hinduism. With statements of BJP's political leaders, like - 'shoot the traitors' have developed a sense of fear among Punjabi Sikhs and refugees too. Punjab Assembly had recently passed a resolution against CAA. Hari Nagar, Rajouri Garden, Tilak Nagar , Jangpura and few other Punjbai dominated seats are witnessing a tough battle.
Baniya plays a crucial role in Dehi's politics but the low cash flow in market, sealing of shops in market areas have broken local economy in streets. While watching this contest a close fight between Modi and Kejriwal, Baniyas have maintained the subtle balance with Kejriwal for Delhi and Narendra Modi in Centre. Moreover - Kejriwal who himself is a Baniya, has a strong networking with the community here.
Thirdly, the Poorvanchal factor has become dominant in Delhi elections. AAP had won 13 seats by fielding Poorvanchali leaders in 2015 elections. Analysis of the available trends indicate that the 'upper caste ' among poorvanchali migrants to Delhi have shown their unconditional support to the BJP in Lok Sabha elections and this time also, Barhamins and upper castes may go with BJP. Poorvanchalis other the upper castes may go the AAP.
Kejriwal's 'governance model' and his ability to convince the people by the delivery of the promises made in the party manifesto. Construction of more than 12 attached community bathrooms/washrooms which were one or two in Shiela Dikshit's regime, free electricity and water, availability of doctors for primary health services in Mohalla clinics, improvements in Delhi government run hospitals, accreditation of parents in government school as a vital board member have strengthened AAP and people are showing unconditional support to the party irrespective of national concern as a family is saving Rs 2000 -3000 per month with free DTC travel in buses plus water/electricity.
Another important factor which is expansion of EWS quota in high end private schools possible due to active participation of Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia.
Fourth - Musilm and SC voters both contain 22 assembly seats in Delhi. In previous 2015 assembly elections, the overall vote hare for AAP was 54 percent. Interestingly SC and Muslim vote share was highest overall with vote percentage 68 and 77 percent respectively while OBC vote are was 60 percent, Sikhs - 57 , non -literates - 67 , poor 66 and migrants from Bihar and Jharkahnd vote share was 64 percent while 59 percent of vote percentage was from young people(18 -35 years), on contrary - overall BJP's vote percentage share was 33 percentage where Baniya vote percentage was 60, Jat -59 ,Brahmin -49 , Rajputs -44 , Upper Class 43 , migrants from Punjab , Haryana - 42 , college educated 39 and elderly (60 + years ) was 36 percent. In 1993 elections, BJP gained maximum support of SC community. Delhi has 12 constituencies reserved for SC candidates. Interestingly, In 1993, BJP won with 42.80 percent of votes while Congress was first runner with vote percentage -34.50, In 1998, BJP managed to get 34 percent vote while Congress attained power with 47 percent vote share. In 2003 , Congress won with 48.10 percent vote share while BJP got 35.20 percent vote while in 2008, Congress again won with vote share percentage 40.30 while BJP got 36.30 percent, In 2013 with induction of AAP , BJP won in triangular fight and managed to gain 33.30 percent and AAP was first runner with 29.70 followed by Congress. In 2015, AAP managed to win with 54.50 percent of vote and BJP was first runner with overall vote percentage -32.30 percent.
While BJP's stakes are high in these elections but no projection of Chief Ministerial candidate has put voters in dilemma who are unwilling to cast their vote to Congress and Kejriwal is the only choice for them and keeping this fight between class versus class as like Modi in Center , Kejriwal also has ended caste politics in Delhi. The elections results would provide fodders of the pollsters as they sit back to analyse the overall poll data of Delhi.
