Defeating corona, reviving economy: Challenges galore

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Defeating corona, reviving economy: Challenges galore

Saturday, 28 March 2020 | S JYOTIRANJAN

The lockdown in India to contain the Novel Corona virus situation is the largest of such exercises in the world, even though it may not be enough to contain the spread of the virus in the country but undoubtedly, for now it is the wisest of the decisions taken.

However, it has  affected 1.3 billion Indian population, at a time when the economy was struggling, when India's gross domestic product grew 4.7 percent in the last three months of 2019. Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has not been very kind towards this decision of the Government.

According to him, "This is a serious concern because not only does the lockdown keep people from going to work, it keeps them at home which is not necessarily that pristine isolated place, but can also be a slum where people live together”.  There can be no denying that this has paralysed businesses across the country and has put millions of people out of work, leaving them struggle with basic requirements like food.

One of the major challenges that India faces is providing money and other resources to people without livelihoods so that they have money to spend, have access to food  and medicines and keep public services running. The Government has however taken a slew of measures to ease the burden of the citizens. After first easing tax deadlines and business regulations, the Fianance Minister announced a Rs 1.7 lakh crore relief package for the poor.

On the other hand, India’s public health sector is hindered in tackling the corona virus pandemic  as many healthcare organisations are facing a severe shortage of basic protective gear and ventilator support.

On a global front, amid such a situation the confusion and lack of coordination between countries is very obvious. But the real concern is, it has to be eradicated from all parts of the world, and it demands coherence among the countries in strategising to defeat the outbreak. This requires rich countries to mobilise resources to under-developed nations so that they have a better chance to fight the pandemic.

India, that is the Asia's third largest economy has shut borders and close down businesses; its equity market also witnessed massive selloff. It has now become clear that there is every chance that it shall be contributing to a global recession along with other nations. And now we have to worry, as this public health emergency and lockdown has made  the revival of consumer demand and private investment a near difficult goal. It is quite clear now, that this lockdown will have serious implications for the country's economic growth, and  the Government must take serious steps to free the economy and use its limited financial  resources prudently.

The picture is quite saddening, from aviation, tourism to food, all sectors  of industry are hit. Workers in the informal sector who comprise four-fifth of India’s workforce will suffer, mainly because, in view of huge revenue losses, the businesses will be either  closed down or go for wholesale retrenchment of workers. Apart from that, roughly 350 million informal workers in service sector shall suffer, which includes waiters, truck drivers and taxi drivers. And there is no wonder the banks will suffer, as borrowers  will postpone repayment or default. But with people keeping indoors, the internet companies and online shows shall continue to do some business.

The major challenge before the Government is now to deal with the corona-induced economic challenges, and it should ideally combine financial and non-financial measures to heal the economy, since the fiscal deficit for the year is almost 30 percent beyond budget. A national lockdown for 21 days may reduce the transmission of the deadly virus, but what is awaited to be seen is, what happens after 21 days? It is a fact that the virus won’t disappear after that, until and unless we have a vaccine in place. Even if we have a vaccine it shall take many months to vaccinate every Indian.

The 21-days national lockdown should be used to create a massive testing infrastructure, so that every asymptomatic person could be tested and quarantined. And this perhaps is the only way to manage the coronavirus outbreak before we get proper drugs and vaccines. The absence of widespread testing and dearth of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for doctors and medical staff is a real bad news, which should be ideally fixed in between this lockdown period.

(The writer is a lawyer and he can be reached at sjyotiranjan3@gmail.com)

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