Today ‘mask' is probably the most-used word across the globe after corona happened. Facemasks are most effective shields against flu viruses. Mask-wearing is now health-safety culture. Even as governments are struggling to keep citizens healthy and safe, there is a lot of heartening news coming from around the globe. Social distancing, though difficult to practise at all times, will remain live in human minds for always as flu viruses will keep attacking the human race one after the other.
British science, economics and environment journalist Mark Ridley says, “From vaccine triumphs to leadership learning curves, we can finally dare to hope for a breakthrough in containing the unruly speck of a fat substance called virus. The nightmare will end this year or at least by the spring in 2021.”
Ridley sounds logical. The quickly-produced vaccine trials have been promising. They seem to be safe and capable of raising both a T-cell response and an antibody response. Behind the pioneer Oxford vaccine, comes a stream of other vaccines, some of which will surely work. The second big reason for hope is that herd immunity may be achieved more easily than experts first thought. Infections have begun to dwindle in developed countries despite‘social distancing' protocol isbeing ignored by many people. ‘Herd immunity' has already been achieved in London as a recent study indicates. Half the population may have already turned immune because of exposure to coronavirus colds while children seem to resist catching Covid-19. Senior medical officer Chris Whitty has conceded that the epidemic is already in retreat. That has happened because the virus has had a few super spreaders before imposition of measures like lockdowns, ‘no handshakes', ‘frequent hand washing', ‘no large gatherings' and strict ‘social distancing'. The third reason for optimism is that as long as people continue with the preventive measures, the virus will struggle to keep spreading.
Unfortunately, at the beginning, the virus did spread with horrible ease in care homes and hospitals. Since T-cell senescence is a critical issue, old people’s immune systems are just not as good at coping with this kind of infection. Further, there were dreadful policy mistakes like stopping testing people, clearing patients out of hospitals to care homes without tests and assuming no asymptomatic transmission. Besides, healthcare and care home staffs were not protected properly. Many of them were infected and had become potent carriers. The fourth cause for cheer is, therefore, that now experts know about asymptomatic transmission, people have more protective equipment and also a better, if still imperfect, capacity to test, track and isolate cases, it is likely that the hospital-acquired epidemic of the last spring will not be repeated. The fifth excuse is that doctors and scientists now know better how to treat serious patients. Ventilation is not necessarily the answer; blood clotting is a real threat making patients lie face down; dexamethasone can save lives and some antiviral drugs are showing promise.
These are reasons that even if a lot of people catch the virus this winter, fewer will die. Colds and flu viruses usually peak in mid-winter when we are indoors. Viruses survive longer in colder and drier conditions; and centrally heated air dries out our protective mucus membranes. Only 21,000 Australians were diagnosed with flu; 132,000 people were diagnosed in the same period last year. Social distancing had worked wonders. And this winter in Australia, fewer people will die of flu of any kind. Behaviour change has virtually thrown off flu viruses there.
Authorities and employers have to show zero tolerance to cold-spreaders. Mocking them for taking a day off and praising them for trudging into work while feeling miserable has to stop.
So, having learnt top grade lessons, ten years from now, people will not only have defeated Covid-19 but made common colds rarer too.
The bigger challenge this winter will be to tackle the backlog of treating cancer and other medical problems delayed by Covid. And to unleash economic growth to help those who lost their jobs.
Japan is the smartest nation on good-health behaviour which is part of the Japanese culture. Now, the Japanese have happily decided to coexist with the new corona virus! The Japanese know too well that ‘bad’ things can't be forsaken for all times. So, using risk assessment models in principle, humans can continue to live well. The Japanese have learnt never to violate the three basic principles: Keep a distance between people; wear a mask unfailingly; and wash hands frequently. The moment they return home, they wash face and clothes immediately. They religiously wash hands as soon as they touch someone's hand. Citizens are encouraged to go for online shopping and electronic settlement. They don't talk on public transportation systems. They are encouraged to go to work by bicycle or on foot. They are constantly requested to use electronic business cards. They are using videoconference for meetings. They work in spaces with open windows for ventilation thereby avoiding air-conditioned interiors. No Japanese is allowed to go to countries where the virus is endemic. Even visiting relatives is also avoided in Japan. They chat less at meals, eat more vegetables. While eating, they sit side by side, and never face to face.
The Japanese are genetically disciplined. The rest of the world can become immensely immune by following them.
