The sudden spike in Covid-19 cases in Chandigarh has set alarm bells ringing, not just because of UT Administration’s mismanagement to contain the spread of infection but also, due to the significant gaps in the city’s existing capacity to accommodate a potential surge in the caseload.
With some studies pointing out that the Covid-19 cases will peak by October end, the medical experts warn that the crisis could get worse in the union territory. Chandigarh, which is a joint capital of Punjab and Haryana, has an estimated population of 12 lakh.
The contingency plan for the management of COVID-19 crisis prepared by the UT Administration had estimated that about 1 percent population of Chandigarh may be tested as positive even in the worst case scenario for the city. Hence, a plan was prepared in case of about 12000 positive cases and for the management of about 3600 active cases of Covid-19 on the worst day of the spread.
The city based health experts however foresee a scenario where the active cases would soon cross 3600-mark on a day, considering a high growth rate of infection in Chandigarh.
At present, the average growth rate of new infections in Chandigarh is recorded at 4.2 percent, double than the national growth rate of 2.1 percent. As far as recoveries are concerned, Chandigarh has reported a recovery rate of 65 percent against the national average of around 78 percent.
The fatality rate in the city was 1.14 percent while the active ratio of cases stood at 33.3 percent which means for every 100 confirmed cases, 33 are currently infected in the city.
The Pioneer spoke to several medical experts regarding their opinion on the measures that the city needs to take to stem the spread of COVID-19
Dr Ramneek Singh Bedi, Advisor, World Medical Association and former national vice-president of the Indian Medical Association (IMA)
We are in the middle of deepening of COVID-19 crisis as the cases are now rising at an alarming rate in Chandigarh. There is a need to impose periodic, stringent or strategic lockdown to break the chain of infection in the community. Currently, a strategic lockdown is the most scientific practice to break the chain and save the economic downturn. India went for a stringent lockdown earlier but that has proven to be an exercise in futility. Since the incubation period of the virus is five-seven days, a complete lockdown of seven-days is required to be imposed in the city. A weekend lockdown as imposed in Punjab earlier does not make any sense or serve any purpose. Despite having tertiary care medical institutions, Chandigarh is now struggling to provide effective and efficient treatment to the patients from the city and facing shortcomings in the infrastructure. So the tricity including Chandigarh, Mohali and Panchkula should jointly go for a complete lockdown or impose a uniform policy to stop the spread of infection. We cannot afford to avoid taking strict measures and let the infection spread further in the name of saving the economy. It is the time to take a considerate decision in striking a balance between economy and human lives, lest it will be too late in a country of 130 crore population to save either. Israel had also recently announced to re-impose the countrywide lockdown amid a stubborn surge in positive cases.
Dr Yogesh Kumar Chawla, Former PGIMER Director
There is no need to allow the shops to open till 9 PM when the cases are surging at a rapid pace in the city. People have become very casual and are gathering in the markets on a daily basis, violating the COVID-19 safety protocols. As a complete lockdown is not acceptable now, the timings of shops with non-essential items can be restricted to 7-7:30 pm. There was also no need to withdraw the decision of weekend closure of Sukhna Lake, which draws a huge crowd every day. Since people including the vulnerable group of senior citizens are gathering at parks and markets and are also, violating the norms of masking and social distancing, voluntary groups should be formed to report such violations and police should be more vigilant and responsive on any reports of violations. The penalty of Rs 500 for not wearing a mask should also be increased in the city. People need to understand that a vaccine is yet to be introduced for this virus and even if it is introduced, we are not sure for how long it would work as this is a mutating virus. We should never forget that prevention is better than cure.
Dr Neeraj Nagpal, Convenor, Medicos Legal Action Group, Chandigarh
Declaring a few houses as a micro-containment zone will not help to contain the infection. Things are beyond our control and we should now focus on facilitating the infected people who need hospitalization. People have been complaining about not getting a bed in government hospitals here. The UT Administration should put up the current status of beds in government facilities for COVID patients on its website and come out with a mechanism to ensure that at least those who need hospitalization get a bed in a government hospital without any hassle. Also, as the hospitals are now brimming with positive patients, we need to rope in hotels to increase the bed capacity in Chandigarh. The local Administration should also address the issue of black-marketing of Remdesivir, which is being sold for multiple times its retail price now. Prices of masks and gloves have also increased. People are making crores by indulging in black marketing amid the pandemic.
Dr AK Mandal, Director, Intensive Care and Critical Care, Pulmonology, Fortis Hospital, Mohali
We do not know how long the battle with COVID-19 would continue. In such a scenario, what people need to understand is that their actions have consequences not only for them but for their family members also. I understand there is a sense of fear and stigma surrounding COVID-19 but if someone is symptomatic, he or she should go for testing. As most of the medical institutions have reached their capacity in the city, there is also a need to develop an effective mechanism for home isolation of positive patients. Everyone does not need hospitalization for COVID-19. A coordinated policy for hospitals should be put in place for keeping a check on all patients in home isolation.
A dedicated team from hospitals should also reach out to them over a call on a daily basis. Apart from this, as senior citizens and those with co-morbidities have emerged as a vulnerable group in the COVID-19 pandemic, the authorities should efficiently monitor them to reduce the COVID fatality rate. We should understand that the cornerstone of a pandemic response is finding those infected, conducting tests, isolating the infected people and taking care of every case besides following the safety protocols.
Dr Rajesh Dhir, Government Multi Speciality Hospital Sector 16 and former IMA president, Chandigarh
First and foremost, people have to make changes in personal behavior. We expect the government to do everything for us but socially irresponsible behavior by educated people will cost us dear and would also take a heavy toll on our community. An ICMR study has found that a COVID-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days if preventive measures such as masking, social distancing are not implemented. The United States (US) is an example of how ignoring safety protocols can lead to serious consequences. We have to follow the simple rules of ‘washing hands, wearing a mask and maintain social distancing.’ The violators should be dealt with strictly and intensive challaning drives by police and local Administration should be conducted across the city to ensure that the safety measures are followed by the residents.
