The international system till now has been shaped by greed of the powerful, which hardly plans for an inclusive healthy global order. The only country which deserves to be the superpower for a sustainable world is India whose ancient wisdom is based on ‘Vashudhaiv Kutumbakam’ (the world is the family)

There has been much talk about the wishful shifting of power from the West to the East. The rise of China, along with India and Japan, was showcased as a precursor that the 21st Century is destined to be an Asian century. But there’s many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip. The moot point is whether China can become a superpower like the erstwhile Colonial Britain and the present day America to control the international system. And if Beijing can’t, who can be. According to Richard Haass, one of the thinkers of world politics, a superpower needs to have, besides economic and military prowess, an ability to intervene politically in any part of the world and prove its unparalleled strength. Another qualification is to use nuclear weapons and its access to any entity across the globe. China flatly fails on both the parameters to become a superpower. The second problem for the rising China theory is that there are more than two powers emerging on the landscape of international system. The middle powers like India, Germany, Japan, South Africa are inching up to shape the world system together. Chinese aggressions in many parts of Asia have exposed Beijing’s desperation to become the unparalleled power in the region.

In these situation if there is a world order which could be developed beyond the conventional theory of world system, it can be a Green World Order that creates a pitch for non-fossil free energy system which can preclude catastrophic situations. This looks more promising for a sustainable world order. The world is sitting on the brink of catastrophe. Neither the US nor China is keen to safeguard the world through its roadmap for the Green World Order.  

We have heard of a Panchtantra story: In the extreme exigencies of flood, a tree becomes a shelter for a tiger, a human, a serpent and a peacock. None of them harm each other; they hang on calmly. The reason for this unthinkable habitation in the peculiar condition is the existential threat for each. The disruptions in climate have pushed countries in the same situation: to shelter on the same tree.  The corona pandemic is a harsh reminder of the undergoing change. The beginning of industrial revolutions in the early nineteenth century in Europe, along with the political ideology of an unchallenged charter of individualism, created a world order which was based on more consumption, better development and highly racial and geographical superiority. One after another geopolitical theorists from Henry Mackinder to TH Mahan, Heartland theory to Rim Land postulated to justify the western interventions and shaping the world system that keeps the western interests intact. This is how the two hundred years of history of the world is with us which has created a threat of existence not merely for Asians and Africans but for Europeans and Americans as well.

Now the larger question is which country has the ability to shelter like a tree in the universal flood. America is absolutely odd man out. It has been the biggest disrupter of the Green World. It did not sign the Kyoto Protocol and withdrew from the Paris Climate. China is developing huge infrastructure of green energy, especially wind and solar. China produced almost 170 GW of solar energy in 2018, but China has a dubious character. Dragon wants to keep its house clean but litters other parts of the world with fossil fuels. The Chinese system does not think magnanimously to safeguard the planet with an inclusive approach.

The Covid-19 pandemic has completely eclipsed the Chinese credentials in the international system. The way China manipulated the World Health Organization which led to an exponential spread of pandemic in the globe, its anti-green and anti-humanitarian face has been unmasked. The Climate Action Tracker gives China a very poor grade because of its continued reliance on coal. China has failed to stop the building of the new coal-based plants. China is financing coal-fired power plants outside the country, and increasing emissions elsewhere. China remains the world’s largest producer of carbon emissions. It is planning to finance and build roads, railways, bridges, ports, and industrial parks abroad, beginning with China’s neighbours in Central, South, and Southeast Asia and eventually reaching Western Europe and across the Pacific to Latin America. While China has imposed a cap on coal consumption at home, its coal and energy companies are on a building spree overseas. Chinese companies are involved in at least 240 coal projects in 25 of the Belt and Road countries, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Serbia, Kenya, Ghana, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. It has a particular eye on the coal resources of South Asia, Southeast Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, the West Asia, and the Russian Far East. Secondly, Chinese political system is not transparent. Its next move is unpredictable. Third, China is very keen to settle the historical scores after becoming the largest economy. Therefore, its intentions are based on self-interests which would generate more conflicts in the international system.

So far world politics was driven by the greed for oil and gas. Churchill after the end of the First World War ventured to use imported oil in place of coal for British fleets, since then the oil became the driving force of world politics. Geopolitics of oil embargos are common. Oil and gas have not only been used as sticks to hurt or deter foes, but also as carrots to reward allies and ensure their allegiance. The climate conferences of the UN have been consistently reminding the world to switch over from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy. But things are not moving. American President Donald Trump, in meeting with CEOs of the companies during the pandemic, assured them of carbon-led economic development in future. The impact of fossil-fuel economy is visible. The trade war between America and China is pitching for carbon-led energy system. The climate disruption has reached the tipping point. The whole world is severely under its grip. But certain parts of the world are more prone to climatic change. Like Southeast Asia and South Asia will face more severe consequences of climate change than other parts of the world.

The only country which shines out in the crisis is India. It will have the largest world population of the world by 2024. It has tested democratic credentials and strong constitutional framework. The ancient Indian wisdom is based on “Vashudhaiv Kutumbakam” which encapsulates each country in its fold. India has displayed its commitment for the resolutions of Paris Commitment. The 8 folds jump in solar energy in the last six years proved a point. India is going to generate more than 450 GW of energy through renewable sources by 2030. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was awarded the “Champion of Earth” by the UN Secretary General in 2018. He started to lead the International Solar Alliance. India has made important progress towards meeting the United Nations Sustainable Developmental Goals, notably Goal-7 on delivering energy access. India’s per capita emissions today are 1.6 tonnes of CO2, well below the global average of 4.4 tonnes.

Inequality and climate change are parts of the same coin. Therefore, climate change is also related to lifestyle. Western economist Thorestein Veblen, who coined the terms “invidious consumption” pointed out how individuals use luxury goods to show off their status. The US top ten per cent emits six times more than 50 per cent of the bottom at the household level. Adam Smith, the father of economics, explained in his path-breaking book “the Wealth of Nations”: It is the industry which is going to make the country rich. But ancient Indian wisdom is contrary to the views of Adam Smith. Mahatma Gandhi once said that India cannot afford to follow the British economic policy of greed. If two-thirds of planet failed to satisfy the greed of Britain, India had four times the population of Britain, so it would need four planets like earth to fulfil the greed. Unfortunately during the early decades after Independence, India became a copy cat of western pattern of development. That is why the Modi Government is working on to reintroduce the ancient wisdom. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has also said that Climate Change is not merely a fuel issue but it has a larger context. Unsustainable consumption is the fundamental cause of pollution and ecological destruction. India has increased its solar-energy capacity more than twelve fold since 2014. The Indian stand is not contradictory. It says what it does. The democratic credentials are well respected. This Government has prepared a blue print of Green World Order. According to PM Modi it is secure, sure and pure.

(The writer is a professor of political science)