India’s GDP is expected to record a year-on-year rise of 0.7 per cent in Q3FY21, thereby ending the recession created by the nationwide lockdown imposed last year to curb the spread of Covid-19, rating agaency ICRA said on Tuesday.
The forecast shows a turnaround from the 7.5 per cent contraction in Q2FY21, benefitting from a pickup in private consumption and government spending. Besides, the mild forecasted growth in Q3FY21 signifies that the economy has exited the Covid-19 pandemic-induced recession after two quarters.
ICRA expects the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices to have risen by 0.7 per cent in Q3FY21, in contrast to the 7 per cent contraction in Q2FY21.
According to ICRA’s Principal Economist Aditi Nayar: “Encouragingly, almost all the non-agricultural lead indicators that we track, recorded a continued, albeit uneven, improvement in volume terms in Q3 FY2021. This pickup benefitted from the continued unlocking of the economy, uptick in consumption during the festive season, as well as higher Central government spending. Moreover, most of the tracked indicators rebounded to a growth on a YoY basis in that quarter, although this was on the low base of Q3 FY2020.”
But sectors such as aviation continued to contract in Q3 FY2021.
ICRA noted that the Index of Industrial Production recorded a sedate 1 per cent rise in the just-concluded quarter while rising raw material prices contributed to lower margins in some sectors.
