As legendary Merkel is tipped to tiptoe into Germany’s political sunset, Scholz is taking up all challenges and opportunities left behind by the CDU leader. Political observers say Scholz, a terse, well-briefed and a grounded professional political leader, would be no less a competent figure than Merkel to steer Germany ahead in this time of crisis. However, it remains to be seen how the new Chancellor-elect leads Germany to the post-Merkel era to overcome both fears and challenges in the days ahead
The countdown for the post-Merkel era has just begun. The historic sixteen long years (four terms) of Angela Merkel chancellorship will be over by the end of this month. A new Chancellor is all set to take over. And once again, a rag-tag coalition has come to an agreement to form the next Government of Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe.
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor-elect, is a left leaning leader of the SPD (Social Democratic Party). He was born on June 14, 1958. Scholz is currently serving as the Federal Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor in the Merkel Government since March 14, 2018. Earlier, he served as the Mayor of Hamburg from March 7, 2011 to March 13, 2013. He also worked as the acting leader of the SPD in 2018.
The national election in Germany took place on September 2021. And now the Germans have got a new Bundestag (the Lower House of the German Reichstag i.e. Parliament), the 20th one in its post-war federal history. The current German Constitution stipulates that Parliament must meet 30 days at the latest after the election day, ending the term of its predecessor.
It would be really difficult for Scholz to match his predecessor’s record. Merkel is the first woman leader of Germany; the second longest serving Chancellor ever and the first modern Chancellor to hail from eastern part of the country. Helmut Kohl was the longest serving Chancellor of Germany and he was in office from October 1, 1982, to October 26, 1998. If there would have been no announcement of a new government by December 17, Merkel would have surpassed Kohl’s record. But now, the new Traffic Light Coalition (TLC) has already declared Scholz as the new Chancellor of the country.
The TLC is named after the three parties’ respective colours in the alliance. All the three partners wanted to accelerate the transition to a green economy and digitalisation while maintaining strict fiscal discipline according to a 177-page pact signed by the SPD, the Greens and the Free Democrats. Interestingly, at a press conference held recently in Berlin along with the leaders of the Greens and the FDP, Scholz recalled when the “first traffic light” was installed at the city’s Potsdamer Platdz in 1924, many people doubted whether it could really work. But he told people that this traffic light partnership will be indispensable for Germany. This coalition will see the first woman Foreign Minister of Germany, i.e. the Green’s co-leader Annalena Baerbock. Again, FDP leader Christian Lindner is going to take over as the Finance Minister and Green’s co-leader Robert Habeck is expected to take on as the newly expanded Economy and Environment Minister. Further, the brand-new coalition will try to balance the Green Party’s call for a tough stance on Russia and China on human rights. But Scholz is attempting not to risk a direct confrontation with the two authoritarian regimes on complex issues such as Taiwan and Ukraine. This government will also allow multiple citizenships and legalize the sale of cannabis for recreational use at all registered outlets across the country.
Again, Merkel has set a record in history for the fact that she will be the first Chancellor to leave her office at a time of her own choice. However, many political analysts say that she did face serious internal pressure in her CDU (Christian Democratic Union) party to step down after the refugee crisis (mostly refugees came from war-torn nations like Syria, Iraq) rocked Europe, particularly Germany. But she announced on her own that by autumn 2021, she will relinquish the top job of Germany. Interestingly, from Konrad Adenauer through Helmut Schmidt to Helmut Kohl, all of the country’s great leaders left their offices either under extreme party pressure or through an outright defeat in a national election.
For now, Merkel will continue as caretaker Chancellor till the new government is formed. Generally, the formation of coalition takes longer than usual in Germany. In 2017, when Merkel formed her last alliance government, it took nearly six months to ink the pact with the partners.
German election heralds absolutely a messier political environment. It has gradually resulted into a much weaker leadership in comparison to Merkel for now. After the national election in this September, the new German Parliament looks like this: the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) of Merkel gets 196 (-50) i.e. 24.1%; the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Scholz gets 206 (+ 56) i.e. 25.7%; the Green Party 118 (+51) i.e. 14.8%; the Free Democratic Party (FDP) 92 (+12); the Alternative for Germany (AfD) 83 (-11) i.e. 10.3%; the Left (Linke) 39 (-30) i.e. 4.9% and others 1 (+1) i.e. 8.7%. Merkel’s Conservatives is the most successful party in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany. The SPD is traditional Centre-Left party. It appears intermittently in successive governments, sometimes in alliance with the CDU. The FDP is little less socially conservative party than the CDU. Though it is small, it is coherent and known for its pro-business approach. The AfD is a strong right-wing party that firmly opposes immigration and is absolutely sceptical about the EU. The Greens are influential and have tied up with many governments both at the centre and in some states.
This election showed the most consequential gains for the SPD, particularly in East Germany. Besides, the party has also recovered grounds in its traditional homelands such as the Rhineland and in the northwest Germany, where it shared some of the advances with the Green Party. Despite losing some grounds, the AfD was able to muster support in Thuringia and other parts of the East Germany. Sadly, the CDU lost most of its support bases almost everywhere, but its partner party CSU could do better in Bavaria. The Linke Party lost big grounds in the East.
As legendary Merkel is tipped to tiptoe into Germany’s political sunset, Scholz is taking up all challenges and opportunities left behind by the CDU leader. Today Germans are talking about a radical shift in the ‘machtarchitectur’, i.e. the architecture of power structure of the country. And the new SPD-led coalition is heading for wide policy changes both at home and abroad. During the four tenures of Merkel, the coalition partners like the SPD and others have always complained about their minimal role in policy making and in public appearances. She was adopting a pure top-down approach in running her fragile coalition government in all the last 16 years in office. But this time, with Scholz, the power arrangement with partners is quite different. His partners are the Greens and the FDs which are handed over crucial ministries such as the foreign, finance, new economy and environment. Moreover, the Ministers and major leaders of these parties are much younger and dynamic than Scholz. They have a broader vision of Germany than him. Therefore, it would be too difficult for him to clip their wings or rather side-line them the way Merkel did with her political allies.
It seems Scholz has already convinced the German electorate that he would be able to replace the maverick Merkel. Truly speaking, her departure has not only ushered in a new era in Germany but also literally shakes up the fragile power balance among the competing powers in the coveted European Union. At a time when Russia under Putin is increasingly becoming aggressive and Lukashenko is pushing the migrants towards the border between Belarus and Poland, the EU demands the role of accommodating and tough decision makers like Merkel. Her successor-in-waiting Scholz has a much bigger role to play — leveraging German power to handle a deadly pandemic Covid-19 and an ever-growing trend of migration of people from West Asian countries to Europe. Many in Europe today see huge potential in French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Scholz as contenders for leading Europe to the world stage. And probably to take over Merkel’s mantle as the unquestioned leader of Europe, the world’s another crucial power bloc. But the biggest hurdle for all these three statesmen would be to cope up with an EU minus the presence of the UK and the fast marginalisation of the group in global politics.
Scholz, a terse, well-briefed and a grounded professional political leader, would be no less a competent figure than Merkel to steer Germany ahead in this time of crisis. Undoubtedly, he would be offering his long innings in German politics both for the benefit of his country and for Europe. Thus, Robin Alexander, a long-time political observer of Merkel and Scholz, aptly describes his credentials: “He is like a soccer player who studies videos of another player and changes his game. From temperament and political style all the way down to facial expressions, Scholz now channels Merkel. If Scholz was a woman, he would wear pantsuits”.
Now it remains to be seen how the new Chancellor will take Germany to the post-Merkel era to overcome both fears and challenges in the days ahead.
(Dr Makhan Saikia has taught political science and international relations for over a decade in institutions of national and international repute after specialisation in globalisation and governance from Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai. He is the chief editor of the Journal of Global Studies, an international research journal)
