While the Afghans will have to prepare themselves for a possible civil war, the global community must get ready for a renewed and more vigorous threat from extremist Islam
US President Joe Biden has announced September 11 as the final cut-off date for the complete withdrawal of the US troops from war-torn Afghanistan. Earlier, he had denounced his predecessor Donald Trump’s decision for a complete drawdown by May 1 as “impractical.” As per the new blueprint the pull out which began on May 1 must terminate by September 11 this year. Significantly, September 11, 2022 will mark the completion of two decades of invasion of Afghanistan codenamed ‘Operation Enduring Freedom’ (when the twin objective of overthrowing the ruling Taliban regime and decimating Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda was partially achieved) and ‘Operation Freedom’s Sentinel’ thereafter, the longest-running war in American history. At a time when the US and allies are leaving, Afghanistan is in turmoil due to the internal war for control over the country continuing between the elected Government of President Ashraf Gani and the insurgents led by the Taliban, who already control more than 40 per cent of the country.
A Pakistan-brokered peace agreement between the US and the Taliban reached in February 2020 succeeded only to the extent that the Taliban stopped attacking the foreign troops. It failed to achieve the main purpose of a negotiated settlement and permanent ceasefire with the Afghan Government. The Taliban had also agreed to ensure that its soil would not be used as a launch pad for the global jihadi terror groups, which also has been violated many times. In fact, the violence has surged in Afghanistan ever since the beginning of peace talks, with the deaths of civilians and the security forces recording an upward trend as deadly terror attacks increased.
In a nutshell, Afghanistan continues to be in a quagmire and the melting pot for global jihadi terror. The question arises, what did the US achieve even after spending over $2 trillion and losing 2,216 precious lives? Billions in “aid” are said to have gone down the drain, with the bulk invested in the Dubai property market. The cost to Afghan civilians has been equally appalling, put at between 50,000 and 1,00,000 deaths over the last two decades. Many analysts believe that the present regime in Kabul is unlikely to hold on for long after the Americans leave. It could hardly govern with American help and is unlikely to succeed without the US.
Come September, Afghanistan is likely to be back with the Taliban, a scenario dreaded not only by the Afghans, particularly the women, but India as well. Afghanistan has once again lived up to its reputation of “the graveyard of the Empires.” Yet another power is leaving Afghanistan in ruins and without ushering peace in the war-torn nation. This is straightforward abandonment. Kabul faces a threat not only from the Taliban but from the Islamic State (IS) as well, which is reported to have formed an affiliate IS in Khorasan province.
The country has witnessed a sea change with regards to infrastructure development under the ‘Reconstruction of Afghanistan’ programme, to which India is a major contributor. Will it have any value for the radical Islamists for whom the rule of Sharia is ultimate, even if it means a return to the Medieval Era? The Taliban have already announced themselves as the winners. “We have won the war, America has lost,” they say. That the Taliban see themselves as a government-in-waiting, speaks volumes of their plans to overthrow the current regime after the Americans leave. They have already decided to rename the country as the ‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.’
“This is jihad, it is worship. We don’t do it for power but for Allah and His law. To bring Sharia to this country. Whoever stands against us we will fight against them,” says Haji Hekmat, Taliban’s shadow mayor in Balkh District. The statement reflects the mindset of the Taliban leadership. However, some elements feel that with the passing of time and change of mindset among many Muslim countries, a group of moderates has also emerged among the Taliban. How much they would be able to influence the new Government or how the new Islamic Government will accommodate them, only time will tell.
India has both, strategic and internal security issues with the American abandonment of Afghanistan. While India’s arch rival in the region, Pakistan seems to be in a win-win situation, India will have to face many challenges. Though,
New Delhi has been included, at Washington’s insistence, in the United Nations’ supervised talks for ensuring intra-Afghan peace, it is not going to make much of a difference, as any positive outcome of the talks is almost ruled out. As and when the Taliban assume power, Pakistan would emerge as a major player.
While Pakistan will not like any Indian influence in Afghanistan, New Delhi can ill-afford to lose all the goodwill and strategic leverage it has gained through huge investments in its economic uplift. Afghanistan is as strategically important to India as it is to Pakistan.
The major threat that would emerge to India, is the likelihood of the situation as it prevailed in the 1990s and early 2000s in relation to jihadi terror. A pliant Government in Afghanistan will allow Pakistan to continue to adhere to its policy of using terror as an instrument of State policy. To avoid international pressure and the fear of watchdogs, it is likely to shift the terror infrastructure to the badlands of Afghanistan.
Jihadi terrorists who would become surplus to the internal need in Afghanistan may well be diverted across the border by Pakistan, as in the past. The security of the infrastructure built by India, including the alternate road route via the Sistan Baluchistan of Iran and, the Indian personnel deployed there, would be another major concern.
To ensure that the gains made by India are not buried along with the anticipated change in regime post-September, New Delhi needs to formulate and put in place a robust response based on a long- term strategy. Without losing time the Government must appoint a special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation with the mandate to open communication channels and negotiations with all stakeholders, including the Taliban and the IS. Putting boots on the ground has been opposed by India till now and hopefully New Delhi will stick to its stance hereafter. A greater outreach to strengthen the Afghan forces, including training and equipping them, must continue with increased emphasis on capacity-building.
India would need to leverage its good relations with Iran and Russia to keep Pakistan and Turkey away from harming our interests. The emerging threat from radical Islamists will have to be highlighted to China, since it is very sensitive to such threats in its Xinxiang province.
The goodwill of the Afghans earned by India should also be exploited by New Delhi to soften the Taliban approach to us. The emerging situation in Afghanistan would definitely test our political and diplomatic mettle in the days to come.
While the Afghans will have to prepare themselves for a possible civil war, the global community must get ready for a renewed and more vigorous threat from extremist Islam. The epicentre of the new global ‘Great Game’ may be shifting to the Indo-Pacific or the South Caucasus, but Afghanistan will continue to be the epicentre of global jihadi terror, rejuvenated and resurrected. The US may abandon Afghanistan but it would not be able to abandon its war on terror.
The author is a Jammu-based veteran, political commentator, columnist, security and strategic analyst. The views expressed are personal.
