Myanmar Army: No sign of relinquishing power

|
  • 0

Myanmar Army: No sign of relinquishing power

Sunday, 03 October 2021 | Makhan Saikia

Myanmar Army: No sign of relinquishing power

Suu Kyi, popularly known as “Ma Suu” and called “the Lady” by the commoners in this impoverished Southeast Asian country, is both ageing and losing fast her political acumen. But then, what next? Will there be anyone, firm and resolute to counter the intransigence of the so-called “nationalist” Army of Myanmar?

On February 1 this year, the Myanmar military (also known as the Tatmadaw in Burmese language) took over the control of the country. It was simply done to quietly oust a legitimate and democratically elected Government headed by veteran Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, National League for Democracy (NLD). After completing a full five year-term of governance from 2015-2020, Suu Kyi’s party once again scored massive victory over all her rival parties, including the Army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in the Parliamentary elections of November 8, 2020.

The country’s top general (also called as Senior General) and Commander-in-Chief of the Army, Min Aung Hlaing, was in fact sending enough signals to the NLD Government that the Army was not happy with the way the latest Parliamentary election was conducted. And, according to the Army, the election was a complete fraud wherein massive malpractices took place. But the Government of Suu Kyi and the Myanmar’s Election Commission denied all these charges of the Army.

The crux of the issue is that the USDP suffered a humiliating defeat in the hand of the NLD in the last election. As per the official results declared by the election department, the NLD won 393 seats out of the 476 seats. Unfortunately, the USDP won bare 33 seats. So, the anger against the NLD and Suu Kyi’s growing popularity was brewing inside the rank and file of the Burmese Army. It was not easy for the brutal Tatmadaw to accept the dominance of the civilian Government, especially under the leadership of Suu Kyi, once its arch rival. Therefore, the junta has been quite firm on its complaints on the election fraud since the beginning. Finally, the General did what he had to do.

Today, it is crystal clear that Myanmar’s February coup was indeed a foretold chronicle. The pre-dawn coup d’état on that fateful day witnessed the detention of State Counsellor Suu Kyi and President Win Myint, along with a number of newly elected NLD party leaders, and definitely, the critics of the military in the country.

This is the first putsch since 1988. However, the military is armed with the backing of the country’s Constitution declared in 2008. It clearly says the Army can take over power in order to prevent any situation that may “disintegrate the Union or disintegrate national solidarity or that may cause the loss of sovereignty”.

Therefore, the Army wanted to investigate the malpractices in the November 8 election which the Suu Kyi Government denied. And to the Army, such a situation may destabilise the country. So, the General had all the excuses to dethrone the NLD Government from the power.

Recently the Army General announced in a speech that the current emergency may be extended up to August 2023.

Most importantly, he has designated himself as the Chair of the State Administration Council (SAC) and Prime Minister of the caretaker Government now ruling the country for the last eight months. In his hour-long speech, he defended the coup and promised to hold free and fair election. Equally, he condemned the protesters both for spreading the Covid-19 and destabilising the whole nation. As per the orders released on February 1 this year, Hlaing has been already endowed with executive, legislative and judicial powers to run the country. On August 23, when the top General spoke in the 14th meeting of the SAC, he outlined a detailed plan for matters related to election and legislation. It seems the man in uniform has given his final sermon from the country’s Capital Naypyidaw.

He has clearly meant business (for which the Myanmar Army stands tall both in times of war and peace all these years). And eventually, since then his orders, truly clear orders, have been made effective by the olive branch across the nation.

It was interesting to note here that till early July this year, the junta was solely focussing on containing the growing protests, the activities of the National Unity Government (NUG) and its People’s Defence Force (PDF). But on September 7, when the NUG declared an all-out defensive war against the current military Government of Hlaing, the Tatmadaw must have rolled out all the possible strategies and mostly repressive ones to counter the protesters of the NLD.

Frankly speaking, the paramount aim of the military is to finish the popularity of Suu Kyi and discredit the legitimacy of the results of the national election declared on November 26 last year. And it is working hard to repress the protesters so as to contain the huge upsurge against the military after long time since the heydays of Suu Kyi in the past.

Another aspect that has never ever worked with most of the military dictators and authoritarian rulers across the globe is the impact of international sanctions, whether military or economic. Truly, these kinds of sanction affect the civilians. And the military rulers hardly bother about the commoners as they know they possess the firepower, and they can handle the ordinary people. Certainly, this universal thesis has proved right for the Tatmadaw in Burma as well. Hlaing, being an experienced commander, knows how to handle such pressures, commonly known as international sanctions and sometimes coming as harsh and diplomatic words from global governance agencies like the UN.

However, ever-willing China is already there to support such regimes across the world. And this has come directly these days from Beijing, including the support offered to the Taliban Government in Afghanistan today. With Xi Jinping, the “life-time’ President of China, Beijing has become more vociferous in offering support, mainly financial backing to such reclusive governments like the one in Naypyidaw. Because, like the Tatmadaw in Myanmar, it wants security, stability and territorial integrity even at the cost of the violation of internationally recognised human rights and basic freedoms. So, the Army in Myanmar has no problem and it will certainly survive and sustain in the country.

Further, despite the Army being so unpopular, why it is extending its rule? Probably just to extend its stay in power for a longer period of time. It’s definitely delaying tactics which the Army used in the past just to see that a favourable Constitution could be declared for it wherein it would have secured hold in power. And it did the same and thus today, the Army has considerable say in any democratically elected government in the country (except winning elections).

There is no possibility that Hlaing and his men will return the helm a democratically elected Government even in 2023. But anyway, he has been promising a free and fair election since the February coup. Interestingly, he also talked about a more proportionally represented electoral system for the multi-ethnic Burma. It could be so that the minority and ethnically composed far-flung parties in the periphery may buy this idea from the General very well.

Only because of the prevalence of a majoritarian electoral system, many, including the USDP and the smaller parties, believe that Suu Kyi’s NLD has been able to script landslide victory in the last two national elections held in 2015 and 2020.

And the Army must be trying to align with such smaller parties to form Government at the centre in future. Probably, this kind of a refurbished electoral system could very well attract many minor parties and possibly turn them against the NLD bases.

The crude reality is that the Tatmadaw is all about brutality. It does not respect any globally recognised human rights. Hlaing is behaving like his predecessors only. He is no different. But quite often, he talks about the Army standing for the people. Clearly, the ordinary Burmese people know the intentions of the Army and how they treated them in the past.

Now, Suu Kyi, popularly known as “Ma Suu” and “the Lady” by the commoners in this impoverished Southeast Asian country is both ageing and losing fast her political acumenship.

But then, what next? Will there be anyone, firm and resolute to counter the intransigence of the so-called “nationalist” Army of Myanmar? Else, in the name of protecting and safeguarding the territorial integrity of the country, the Army will play the same old game-taking over from the civilian leadership, whenever it thinks appropriate to exert its control over the country.

(Dr Makhan Saikia has taught political science and international relations for over a decade in institutions of national and international repute after specialisation in globalisation and governance from Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai. He is the chief editor of the Journal of Global Studies, an international research journal)

Sunday Edition

CAA PASSPORT TO FREEDOM

24 March 2024 | Kumar Chellappan | Agenda

CHENNAI EXPRESS IN GURUGRAM

24 March 2024 | Pawan Soni | Agenda

The Way of Bengal

24 March 2024 | Shobori Ganguli | Agenda

The Pizza Philosopher

24 March 2024 | Shobori Ganguli | Agenda

Astroturf | Lord Shiva calls for all-inclusiveness

24 March 2024 | Bharat Bhushan Padmadeo | Agenda

Interconnected narrative l Forest conservation l Agriculture l Food security

24 March 2024 | BKP Sinha/ Arvind K jha | Agenda