Though not highly popular, and ironic, Oli looks better poised to form a Government. And the Himalayan State needs one
The five most powerful and, according to a study of the Nepalese media, easily the most despised Prime Minister Nepal has ever had among the 43 who made it, was sworn in for the third time as a minority Government’s Prime Minister on May 14. Oli had defiantly dissolved the House in December and ordered elections for April-May when the Supreme Court restored the House in February, describing his actions as unconstitutional. Instead of resigning on moral grounds, Oli typically refused to do so in the face of massive criticism and revulsion while a full House sat between March 7 and April 19, twiddling their thumbs, and was prorogued a second time.
Against the might of five former Prime Ministers—SB Deuba, Prachanda, Madhav Nepal, Jhalanath Khanal and Baburam Bhattarai—and the entire Opposition, Oli sailed through the no-confidence vote on May 10 with dissidents within his party and outside, not daring to change the status quo. In this high-stakes political stage show, the Mahanta-Thakur and Rajendra Mahato faction of the Janata Samajwadi Nepal with 15 lawmakers could have been kingmakers providing Oli the magic number of 136 parliamentarians and with independents to comfortably form a majority Government.
The Oli swearing in of a minority Government was made justiciable on grounds of erroneous swearing-in by a pliant president, Bidya Devi Bhandari, when Oli skipped the oath “I solemnly and sincerely pledge”. Seven Ministers sworn in a second time had ceased to be lawmakers when Oli lost his confidence vote, since non-lawmakers can be Ministers only once. Another constitutional hassle is about former Maoist and Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa contesting a National Assembly seat. Oli has shown that, like a cat, he has nine lives and will, before June 15, prove his majority in the House. The greatest quirk of Nepalese politics has just played out—a Left Government that was destined to rule with a two-thirds majority for a full term was crippled by the ego and the lust for power of two ambitious politicians—Oli and Prachanda. A Nepali Times survey and Himal Media public opinion poll blamed both for putting democracy at risk. A national survey showed 65.5 per cent Nepalese do not trust political leaders, of which 44.9 per cent did not trust Oli.
Oli, nurtured by India, was once New Delhi’s blue-eyed boy. After the 2015 economic blockade, he switched sides enthusing China’s rise in Nepal till his political domination in the party was seriously challenged from within the party. Oli made a tactical tilt towards India last year despite the shrewd counter-manoeuvrings of Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqui.
Oli’s biggest challenge is managing his most visible spectacular failure—Covid19 pandemic. His letter to The Guardian and interview with the CNN are riddled with factual inaccuracies on the actual state of the pandemic, which is interwoven with the catastrophic spike in India’s second wave. Oli’s conspicuous lack of governance was exposed during the last one year that included corruption in the acquisition of medical equipment and the Government misleading people that COVID was viral influenza, whose cure was drinking turmeric laced warm water. Instead of building health infrastructure, the Government invested in building view towers, idols of Hindu gods and goddesses and telling the people that Lord Pashupati will take care of them. Oli has picked up Hindutva as his main agenda for the next election, claiming that Chitwan in Nepal is the real birthplace of Ram. He is playing the devout Hindu, visiting Pashupati temple; the same Oli who once said that the only God was Karl Marx though he did not believe in one.
Nepal needs a strong and stable Government to face the twin challenges of the pandemic and misgovernance. Oli has prioritised his political survival over the existential threat of COVID-19 just when India’s capacity for assistance has exhausted and New Delhi has sent out an SOS for oxygen, ventilators and other medical equipment. This is an opportunity for Beijing whose Foreign Minister Wang Yi has conducted at least three virtual meetings of the Saarc countries, excluding Maldives, Bhutan and India, on COVID-19 assistance. China has donated 8,00,000 doses of its vaccine to Nepal, which has signed a contract of 2 million doses with the Serum Institute of India, of which only 1 million have been delivered.
Engulfed by the pandemic, these are ugly times and made worse by an inept Government whose focus is on regime extension, not defeating the once-in-a-century scourge. By June 15, either the contours of a majority Oli Government should be in sight or a coalition Government of the Opposition parties, failing which the House will be dissolved and fresh elections ordered when 20 months are still left in the life of this House. A majority and stable Government is imperative to fight COVID-19, not any elections, for the time being. Ironically, Oli looks better poised to form a Government.
(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. The views expressed are personal.)
