The IIT-Kanpur scientists say the number of COVID infections would peak around mid-May

The worst is yet to come. It hardly matters whether we are ready for it or not but in the coming days we will likely witness more cases of infection and more deaths due to the Novel Coronavirus. Even as the nation is battling the pandemic’s second and more virulent wave, facing shortages of medical oxygen, hospital beds and medicines, there is no respite in sight except when the COVID curve will follow a downward trend which is expected after it reaches its second peak around mid-May. The wave travels in the form of a crest and trough, just like tsunami. Scientists at the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur (IIT-Kanpur) have predicted that the active cases in India could peak to 33 lakh-35 lakh between May 11-15. However, the number would also fall sharply and, by the end of May, might witness a dramatic reduction. These scientists have predicted that Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan and Telangana may see a new high by April 25-30 while Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh may have already touched their peak. Earlier this month, the mathematical modelling approach had forecast that active infections in India would peak by April 15 but it didn’t come true. However, with the SARS-CoV-2 virus mutating fast into lethal and more infectious strains, it’s hard to tell how many more people will lose their lives before this wave subsides. The Government opening vaccination for all adults beginning May 1 will also be a major factor as it may help mitigate the deadly virus.

Since vaccination develops immunity, covering a major part of the population would certainly help. Though it is no panacea but, as claimed by the doctors and scientists, a vaccinated person stands a much better chance of recovering early if s/he gets infected than somebody who hasn’t been inoculated. However, scientific data show that the second wave has reached the rural areas. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphasised the need to ensure that the pandemic doesn’t impact villages while asking the residents to enforce COVID-appropriate behaviour at all times. He underscored that the challenges are more this time and the villagers need both the doses. It’s hard to picture the nation’s plight if the accursed virus starts infecting villages with the same pace it has played havoc in the urban areas. This development, given the poor state of healthcare infrastructure in villages, could be devastating. Many villages don’t have even proper primary healthcare or basic health facilities and villagers are often forced to rush to cities in the case of an emergency. In such a scenario, the villagers will have no option but to come to the city hospitals which are already reeling under immense pressure and lack of resources. Such a situation may lead to total chaos in the sectors of health, economy, unemployment et al. Therefore, we must not be insouciant or complacent in our fight against Coronavirus. Strictly following the COVID-appropriate behaviour — wearing a mask, sanitising hands, maintaining social distance — and getting vaccinated are the only things that will help humanity get out of the clutches of the pesky virus.