Despite the caretaker PM’s shady reputation, India needs to formulate a reliable policy framework towards Nepal in tune with public mood there
The political volcano in Nepal has erupted yet again, with new vulnerabilities in its womb. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, heading a minority Government, recommended the dissolution of the House of Representatives and President Bidya Devi Bhandari — who adorns the top post only in name — acted upon the recommendation with alacrity. As the Himalayan country suffers from an acute shortage of medical oxygen, hospital beds and vaccines, these political developments have come at the cost of great human agony.
However, this is nothing new in the context of the country’s democracy. In the last 25 years, Nepal has been a theatre of civil war, democratic transition and repeated constitutional crises. When Nepal joined the world’s rare group of Communist-ruled country in 2008, questions were asked whether Communism and democracy could coexist. With parties like the CPN-UML led by Oli and the Maoists in Nepal, self is always prioritised before ideology, nation and its people. The Communists have done no good compared to the erstwhile monarchy, which ruled the Hindu kingdom for more than 200 years.
Meanwhile, if anyone can be held responsible for paralysing Nepal in every sphere, it’s the present-day “Oli-garchy”. The Supreme Court of Nepal had nullified the so-called supreme leader KP Oli’s earlier attempts to dissolve Parliament. Under public pressure, ill-intended overnight ordinances on political parties were also withdrawn by the President. Oli was once again challenged to prove the majority, but he failed. Currently, unashamed, Oli continues to be the caretaker Prime Minister. Voices are emanating from the Army veterans, civil society and the democratic forces to hold Oli responsible for the current crisis. These are the same voices that fought an autocratic monarchy for more than a decade to establish an envisaged democratic order in the Himalayan country. However, in less than 15 years, leaders like Oli have fueled the ethnic divide, slowed the economy down, soured relations with India and institutionalised corruption.
As the Supreme Court hears a clutch of writ petitions filed against the controversial move by Oli and Bidya Devi Bhandari, the “supreme leader” in an act to solidify his position in the party ousted the old guard of the CPN-UML and former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhal Kath Khanal at an emergency meeting of the party. The two leaders have time and again questioned Oli for his unconstitutional moves. They had also joined Maoist party chief Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ to force Oli to surrender the political reigns to other leaders owing to his failure in handling the COVID-19 crisis in the country.
With the President already in his pocket, Oli is making a mockery of the Prime Minister’s Office. President Bhandari seems to be repaying her debt to Oli as it was he who got her into the office. Bhandari was a longtime UML comrade who credits her political career to Oli. The same office, once held in high esteem for its non-partisan actions during the tenure of Ram Baran Yadav who served as the first President of Nepal, is now a crying shame in terms of credibility. One may recall the 2008 incident where President Yadav had acted against the unconstitutional suspension of former Army Chief Rookmangud Katwal by Prime Minister Prachanda. Later, Prachanda resigned as the first PM on moral grounds. Thus, the current “Oli-garchy” has become a moth destroying the very sacrifices of the people of Nepal who fought against the Rana oligarchs in the 1950s and the autocratic royals in 2005.
Amid an unstable Nepal, India is once again caught between staunch critic Oli and a united Opposition led by the Nepali Congress. If insiders are to be believed, New Delhi has put its weight behind Oli, considering his recent mega rise in the Nepalese politics. Unlike his predecessors, Oli has stood the test of time and consolidated his position as the Prime Minister and the UML party chairman. With Oli becoming synonymous with the State, India might be unwilling to antagonise him as he may once again use the anti-India narrative to set a political tone in the next elections. However, India’s bet on him might prove to be extremely risky. Once New Delhi’s blue-eyed boy, Oli chose to be lured by the Chinese glitter. He has allowed Chinese high-handedness in the political affairs of the country and uses humanitarian foundations in Nepal to receive alleged political funding from the Communist Party of China.
Aiming to create a Chinese-style party system in Nepal with him acting as the authoritarian Supreme Leader, New Delhi needs to chalk its future course in Nepal carefully. India is a reliable “special neighbour” despite political bad-mouthing by certain political sections in Nepal. Its humanitarian response in the aftermath of the 2015 earthquake and ongoing assistance in Nepal’s fight against COVID-19 are the epitomes of a long-standing “roti-beti” relationship. Therefore, India needs to observe the public mood in Nepal and formulate a reliable policy framework towards Kathmandu as its Nepal policy has for long been the victim of ad hocism.
(The author is an ICSSR Doctoral Fellow at the JNU and Visiting Fellow at the Asian Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs, Kathmandu. The views expressed are personal.)
