The country’s desertion by the US and takeover by the Taliban portends violence, militancy and terrorism in the neighbourhood and elsewhere

What can be the consequences of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan for that country and the world? President Barack Obama had said in Washington DC on March 27, 2009, while announcing a new policy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, that a return of the Taliban to power would mean for Afghanistan “brutal governance, international isolation, a paralysed economy and the denial of the basic human rights to the Afghan people — especially women and girls”.

Some have talked of a softening of Taliban’s hardline approach which characterised their inhuman rule over almost the whole of Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001. Post-takeover statements like having an “inclusive Islamic Government” and women being given every right under Islamic law, have been cited in vindication.

Developments on the ground, however, warrant little optimism. The violent dispersal, through shooting and use of batons, of demonstrations that have erupted in many parts of the country against the Taliban, does not indicate an “inclusive” approach.

As regards Afghan women, Reuters quotes a senior Afghan leader, Waheedullah Hashimi, as saying: “Our Ulema (Islamic scholars) will decide whether the girls are allowed to go to school. They will decide whether they should wear hijab, burqa or only [a] veil plus abaya or something or not. That is up to them.” Significantly, he only talked of girls’ education in the quoted text. There was no reference to women being educated or working or what kind of work would be open to them. The most charitable position will be to wait and watch, fearing the worst.

Now, to the rest of the world. Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand-Perigord, the French Foreign Minister at the time of the Vienna Congress (1814-15) that recast Europe’s political geography after the Napoleonic wars, had once said: “You can do anything you like with bayonets, except sit on them.” The Taliban can do anything with their restless commanders and fighters, who have become used to a life of continuous violence and fighting, except making them into quiet, peaceful citizens. Zealots committed to spreading Sharia rule the world over, by force if necessary, their energies have to be turned to Jihad abroad to prevent these from turning inward against the Taliban Government.

The Taliban victory will also give a massive boost to the morale of the jihadi outfits determined to impose Sharia rule the world over, leading to an increase in terrorist violence globally. Pakistan, which is cock-a-hoop over the Taliban sweep, will have it rough. The jihadi segment of the Pakistani army, created during the tenure of coup leader-turned-President, Gen Zia-ul Haq, which is lying low for now, will be encouraged to flex its muscles. The secular segments of Pakistan’s military as well as the country’s secular parties, leaders and its civil society will be deeply demoralised. They will be hard put to push back a jihadi bid to take over the country.

Besides Pakistan, the first countries to feel the impact will be the central Asian ones like Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, besides Bangladesh and India. The central Asian republics do not have the resources to defeat a resurgent Taliban offensive and the US, having retreated from Afghanistan, is unlikely to return to defend them. A takeover of the entire area would give the Taliban not only its resources but its expanse to launch terror operations elsewhere.

Islamist militancy in Bangladesh grew rapidly during the second coming of the coalition Government spearheaded by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islamic Bangladesh (2001-2006). Strong action under Sheikh Hasina’s resolute leadership has forced the elements involved to go underground. They will now be encouraged to explore the chances of fresh strikes. Hasina, however, can be relied upon to keep them at bay.

India is also strong enough to deal with organisations like the Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad and Hizb-ul Mujahideen who will no doubt try to ramp up their terror campaign against India — and not only in Kashmir. There may be attacks in cities in the manner of the one that began in Mumbai on November 26, 2008.

As for the US, President Obama had said in his speech referred to above: “And if Afghanistan falls to Taliban — or allows al-Qaeda to go unchallenged — that country will again be a base for terrorists who want to kill as many of our people as they possibly can.” This is certain to happen as the Taliban and other terrorist bodies like the Islamic State of Syria and Iraq (or just Islamic State) are pathologically hostile to the US, which they regard as the principal obstacle to their establishing Sharia rule across the world through conquest. The possibility of these bodies striking targets inside the US cannot be ruled out in the background of 9/11. Even if this does not happen, American establishments and interests abroad may be hit as its embassies in Nairobi, capital of Kenya, and Dar-es-Salaam, capital of neighbouring Tanzania, were by al-Qaeda on August 7, 1998.

European countries like France, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have already witnessed serious terrorist attacks. These are now set to become more serious and frequent. The world will pay a very heavy price for abandoning Afghanistan to the savagery of the Taliban.

(The author is Consulting Editor, The Pioneer. The views expressed are personal.)