Several models predicting the pandemic’s peak have proved to be at variance with one another

Most of the predictions and mathematical models made by the Indian scientists and experts on the pandemic have fallen flat. These assessments are far from being accurate or consistent. Late last month, the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) scientists predicted that the Covid-19’s second wave in India could peak between May 11-15 with 33 lakh-35 lakh active cases. Negating the calculations, the total active cases on May 5 have already crossed the 34.87 lakh-mark. Further, contradicting his colleagues’ predictions, IIT-Hyderabad professor and the Centre’s mathematical modelling expert on COVID-19, M Vidyasagar, recently said the peak could be reached by May 7. But how can the latest tip-off, coming just a couple of days before the expected peak, help contain the virus or break its transmission chain? Such models are useful only when they advise in advance so that the Government gets enough time to plan and act on their recommendations. One wonders, do these calculations really help the Government or are these just a set of chancy figures? Or are these simply a means for our scientists to be in the Government’s good books so as to bag a plum assignment later?

Seeing the nation struggle with its current plight makes one assume that either the scientific advice came too late or was inaccurate, or maybe the policymakers didn’t heed it. Whatever be the case, it certainly failed to have any positive effect. We expect our scientists and institutions to come up with robust and accurate mathematical models. Such models should not give us only the normal details but also the early signs of the next possible wave, beside recommendations on how to strategise against it in a scientific manner i.e. priority vaccination of the set of population that is more prone to infection — based on age, demographic profile or medical history — and the variant of the virus infecting the area. Since the doses are currently limited, vaccinating everybody above 18 years doesn’t seem to be the best idea or a feasible proposition as it might take longer than what we have time for. A significant amount of public money is spent on these studies and researches at various institutes, including on foreign trips, workshops and seminars, costly lunches and brunches, stay in premium hotels and guesthouses, and the experts must show due diligence and not fail us.