It’s not bad to dream for a $ 5-trillion Indian economy by the Central Government, but it ought not to be a mere lip service. The Indian economy has by now undergone reforms for a span of three decades while the economists opine the achievements to be half way mark yet. Reason: The reportedly abysmal scenario of per capita income as it is averred to be the index of a country’s status of economy.
Going by the annals of concerted efforts made by the respective Indian Governments at the Centre, former Union Finance Minister Dr Manmohan Singh is endorsed to be the pioneer of economic reforms in India during 1991. The Indian economy was opened and free trade was allowed in the new economic reforms under the stewardship of late Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao’s Congress-led coalition Government.
Dr Singh, being an ace economist as well as a former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), effectively made the Indian economy to take a paradigm shift by implementing liberalisation and globalisation in true letter and spirit resulting in a desired fruit of financial success. Thus, Indian economy is stated to have not only reaped the benefits from the economic reforms introduced by Dr Singh, but also it gained momentum by fetching rich dividends to the public exchequer. Statistics claim that the tenure (decade) between the fiscal years of 2001-02 and 2011-12 could be termed as the best so far as economic growth of India is concerned as it is also claimed that the growth graph of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) got catapulted by 2.1 times.
On the contrary, a reportedly sluggish trend, since the fiscal year of 2016-17 (PM Modi’s regime) and further accentuated by the unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic situation since last fiscal year of 2020-21 till date, has been painting a very precarious picture of the Indian economic scenario. Hence, the score cards, drawn by both the inland and international experts in money matters, place India’s current GDP growth rate as the worst-ever.
Putting forth their arguments, a section of acclaimed economists has also cited that the Indian GDP got enhanced at a speedier pace during the phase of post-economic reform (the initial two decades) than that of the last decade (2010-2020) despite the faster pace of the population growth in India registered then.
As an outcome, the per capita income posted during the period was stated to be a modest one in comparison to the GDP growth rate. It has also been argued statistically that the GDP’s Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) was 1.8 times between the fiscal years of 1981-82 and 1991-92. Notwithstanding that, the very multiple- mark has reportedly plummeted to 1.3 between the fiscal years of 2011-12 and 2021-22.
So, the economists are reportedly of the opinion that India’s per capita income could have augmented at a speedier pace if the successive Central Governments elected to power had maintained the post-reform economic growth mode in full steam as the growth of population had slowed down by that period. Pertinent to note that the per capita GDP is an index of a country’s standard of living enjoyed by each citizen or household.
Needless to mention that large-scale industrialisation contributes significantly to the national economy and employment opportunities provided that right and reasonable policies are religiously adopted by striking a well-weighed balance between the exercises of exports and imports.
Besides, both the service and manufacturing sectors ought to be in tandem as well as keep pace with the need of the hour so that the mobility of the cart of national economy move ahead hassle-free as per the pills prescribed from time to time by the experts and as diagnosed gauging the ground reality. It has been discovered by the experts in money matters that the manufacturing sector is yet to have its lion’s share contribution to India’s GDP despite the reforms during the last three decades.
Analysis cites that the contribution had been 15 per cent in 1990-91 while it soared to 18.4 per cent in 2017-18. However in 2020-21, it got dipped to 16.9 per cent.
Owing to such a graph, the analysts have drawn a conclusion that the manufacturing sector has not yet been the benevolent beneficiary of the economic reforms in the Indian subcontinent. It is a fact that India is an agricultural country and its workforce constitutes to be of about 40 per cent. But, it reportedly contributes
below 15 per cent to India’s total Gross Value Added (GVA), as per the statistics reported. Given such an economic scenario, the million dollar question is whether India has truly geared up for being a $5 trillion economy by 2024 as being tom-tommed.
Can it be achieved by fleecing the general public by means of the uninterruptedly skyrocketing fossil fuel hikes and suffocating price rises of commodities of mass consumption?
