The bypoll to Ellenabad assembly constituency in Haryana’s Sirsa district is not just another election in the Jatland but is bound to have a long-term impact on state’s politics amidst the ongoing farmers’ agitation against the three central farm laws.

The Ellenabad bypoll, which is scheduled to be held on October 30, is witnessing a high-stakes triangular fight with ruling BJP-JJP joint candidate Govind Kanda, Congress candidate Pawan Beniwal and Indian National Lok Dal nominee Abhay Singh Chautala in the fray. A total of 19 candidates are contesting the bypoll on the assembly seat.The seat became vacant in January after INLD’s lone MLA Abhay Chautala had resigned in protest against the three farm laws. The outcome of the bypoll on November 2 will be particularly crucial for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, which will complete its seven years tenure including two years of coalition government in Haryana this month.

 A favorable outcome for the BJP would cement Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar’s place as a stalwart politician in Haryana at a time when the ruling saffron party is on a Chief Minister changing spree in the country.

A victory would not only come as a shot in the arm for Khattar but will also project the political mood in the state in the wake of farmers’ agitation for more than ten months. The protesting farmers have been camping at three border points of Delhi -- Singhu, Tikri (along Haryana), and Ghazipur – since November last year demanding a repeal of the three farm laws enacted by the BJP led Central Government in September last year.

While the opposition parties-Congress and INLD- are pinning their hopes on the anti-BJP sentiment due to the farmers’ protest, the saffron party has played a non-Jat card in Ellenabad, which is known as Chautala family’s stronghold.

The Jat- dominated Ellenabad is a rural assembly segment having more than 1.8 lakh voters. BJP has fielded a non-Jat Govind Kanda in an attempt to polarize the non-Jat voters against the two prominent Jat candidates in the fray.  BJP nominee’s strong rivals are two Jat candidates namely Congress’ Pawan Beniwal, who had unsuccessfully contested on Ellenabad assembly seat on a BJP’s ticket in 2014 and 2019 assembly polls while INLD’s Ajay Chautala is eyeing his fourth straight win from the Ellenabad assembly constituency.

In 2019 assembly polls, Abhay Chautala had won the Ellenabad seat and got 57,000 votes, the then BJP’s nominee Pawan Beniwal polled 45,000 votes, Congress candidate Bharat Singh secured over 35,000 and JJP’s OP Sihag barely got 6,569 votes.

BJP’s Govind Kanda had unsuccessfully contested the assembly elections in 2014 and 2019 from Rania segment in Sirsa district. His brother, founder of Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP) and Sirsa MLA Gopal Kanda has been supporting the BJP in the 90-member Haryana Vidhan Sabha.

This time, the saffron party hopes to get support of non-Jat voters and JJP’s Jat base in Ellenabad to ensure its victory. However, the caste equations will not be enough for the ruling party to make it sail through the bypoll. The ongoing farmers’ protest, which is a key election issue, is a major challenge for the BJP.

The farmers’ unions have made an appeal to the voters to boycott the ruling party’s candidate in the bypoll. Not only this, the BJP leaders and workers are finding it tough to campaign in the rural belt due to farmers’ call to boycott their entry in several villages. For the high-pitched electoral battle, the Chief Minister, his Cabinet Colleagues and BJP senior leaders will begin intensive election campaigning from October 20 onwards.

As per the campaigning strategy chalked out by the saffron party, the  Chief Minister, Cabinet Ministers, party MLAs, chairman of Boards and Corporations and senior leaders will take part in various programmes to be held at village level in next one week to reach out to the voters in Ellenabad. Terming the farmers’ agitation as “totally political”, the campaign of BJP leaders is focused on achievements of the government in the last seven years. Political observers say the Ellenabad bypoll won’t be a cakewalk for any political party. But for the BJP, the outcome will not only reflect its standing among various castes and communities amid the farmers’ protest but would be seen as a sign of Chief Minister’s popularity in the state.

Winning the Ellenabad bypoll would not mean much numerically to the ruling BJP, which has 40 MLAs and its alliance partner-JJP has 10 MLAs, placing the coalition government in a comfortable position in the 90-member assembly.

 But being in power in Haryana for almost seven years now including two years of coalition government, the BJP won't want to lose the bypoll as it would be a major setback to the party’s image after its defeat in Baroda bypoll last year, the political observers say. The last bypoll in Haryana held in Sonipat’s Baroda assembly segment did not go well for the saffron party.

The BJP-JJP’s development and corruption-free slogan had failed to woo the voters as the opposition Congress had managed to retain its Baroda assembly constituency seat despite a tough fight put up by ruling’s heavyweight candidate Yogeshwar Dutt who had lost the election the second time.

The Congress had linked its victory in Baroda assembly seat to the prevailing unrest in the farming community in the state over three agriculture laws. The main opposition in Haryana-Congress-has 31 MLAs in State Assembly.