There is a fighting chance of the return of democracy in Myanmar if the pro-democracy protesters dig in their heels despite brutal crackdown by the military. Realising this, ruling head of the junta Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has termed the opponents of the military regime ‘terrorists’ and has vowed to destroy them
Myanmar junta has completed more than one year in power since February 1, 2021. With the elected government ousted and protesters clamouring for return of democracy, the Southeast Asian nation is heading for a post-Covid-19 economic catastrophe. What further worries the international community, particularly its neighbours, is the inhuman military crackdown on the protesters. While observing the Armed Forces Day last week, the ruling head of the junta, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing termed the opponents of the regime “terrorists” and vowed to “annihilate them to an end”.
Aung San Suu Kyi is languishing in jail. Her party, the National League for Democracy, and millions of its supporters have been fighting street battles with the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army called in local Burmese language) for over a year now. The road ahead is difficult for the protesters as facing the forces each day is an uphill task for them. They look for urgent support from outside. The military junta is currently detaining more than 10,000 demonstrators all around the country. Various rights group claim that many of these prisoners have been tortured and kept in deplorable conditions.
Today, Myanmar’s “Spring Revolution” is passing through a trying time. Since the military takeover, the civilians from cross-sections of society have started the civil disobedience movement. In fact, the National Unity Government (NUG) in exile was formed by the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, a group of elected representatives of Parliament. The NUG has been continuously backing the commoners to fight the forces on the ground.
With Suu Kyi ageing, the fate of the next generation leaders is undecided. Undoubtedly, she had the rare charisma, accompanied by a huge global acceptability. These two elements certainly catapulted her to power with a massive mandate in the year 2015 and subsequently in 2019. Both these parliamentary elections clearly displayed her acceptability as a towering leader of the impoverished Myanmar.
The worst part of the movement is that the detainees can rarely hope for a fair trial under the Tatmadaw controlled courts. In civilian courts, the defence lawyers are allowed to be present, but they are hardly given an opportunity to cross-examine the witnesses. Further, all such trials are barred for the ordinary public and all such hearings are too brief. Judgments are declared as fast as possible. Interestingly, all those who go for trial are found to be guilty. Such is the fate of detainees under the reign of terror unleashed by General Hlaing.
Is there any future for democracy in Myanmar? The answer seems to be a big no for now. The UN has warned of deepening humanitarian crisis in Myanmar with an intensification of violence and a rapid rise in poverty. With an economy highly affected by the Covid-19 and the continued mass protests across the country, the nation will find it difficult to survive in the days to come. The generals may either have to allow softening stand on the pro-democracy movement or simply continue to rule like a regime very familiar to the Burmese before 2010.
And why the junta will survive in Myanmar? It is because of unwavering support from neighbouring China and distant Russian Federation. In fact, the triangular axis of Naypyidaw-Beijing-Moscow is largely making the democratic experiment impossible to sustain for long. Moreover, the generals are quite familiar with global sanctions, and they know very well how to survive. From 1962 till 2011, the junta survived despite severe economic sanctions accompanied by international isolation from powerful countries such as the US, the UK, etc.
General Hlaing needs to read the writing on the wall. Each passing day, the tyranny of the military is rising. And the nascent democracy is backsliding in Myanmar. With the apprehension for the rise of autocracy in Myanmar growing, the tide of democracy movement is getting momentum.
The NUG and the constituents of civil disobedience movement are the true future of Myanmar. The West, the UN, the EU and the ASEAN (though bound by its regional compulsions) might see to it that the legitimate government of the country comes back to power soon. Around the same time, countries such as China and Russia must realise that the grand designs hatched against the commoners don’t augur well for long. And, the proof itself is Myanmar only. When the 8888 Uprising started in 1988, no one could visualise that one fine day this would herald democratic wave to the iron gates of Myanmar. From General Ne Win to Gen Saw Maung to Than Shwe, all played the same game and displayed the age-old tactics to keep people at bay. They all wanted to crush the democratic movement of the country at different levels. From the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) to State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) to Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the military was all in the game.
It fully controlled and captured the political landscape of the country for decades until the advent of nascent democracy in the year 2010. But the army was always retaining the major share of power with them. Alongside, they all tried to ignore the interests of all minority groups, including the hapless Rohingyas. But the Myanmar Army played the role of a nationalist and conveyed the message to the majority Burmans that it is indispensable for the stability of the country. Else the country will be torn into pieces. The nation needs stability more than anything else.
The problem came when the army saw overwhelming support for Suu Kyi in the general elections of 2015. Her party the National League for Democracy (NLD) romped home massive victory and the same experience repeated after five years in 2020 elections. And this time, the Army was fully obliterated from the electoral scene of the country. And obviously, it was a cause of concern for once powerful Tatmadaw. Suu Kyi should have been little cautious about the hidden agenda of the generals. But even then, what the Army did on February 1, 2021, was completely out of her control. The latest election victory startled the Army. And so the immediate actions came from General Hlaing last year.
Recently, US President Joe Biden and Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong issued a joint statement calling on the Myanmar junta to release the political prisoners, allow humanitarian access and begin restoring democracy in that country. Around the same time, Phil Robertson, the Deputy Asia Director for Human Rights Watch, commented that Myanmar has quickly outstripped the dismal records of its autocratic neighbours in Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. Clearly, the junta in Myanmar is taking the country back to its military days after a decade of experience with democracy from 2010 -2020.
Finally, the current political dynamics in Myanmar is affecting the security architecture and regional stability of the entire Southeast Asian countries. Precisely, the ASEAN has failed to made changes to the mindset of the junta. The generals headed by Hlaing have proved that they don’t live in the ‘City of Kings’ (meaning of Naypyidaw in Burmese language), but they are real kings in 21st century. They are the true royals in an impoverished country wherein millions are suffering from poverty and injustice. A nation of more than 54 million people is crying for justice!
(Dr Makhan Saikia has taught political science and international relations for over a decade in institutions of national and international repute after specialisation in globalisation and governance from Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai. He is the chief editor of the Journal of Global Studies, an international research journal)
