Caste re-engineering decides UP poll result

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Caste re-engineering decides UP poll result

Monday, 17 January 2022 | Shivaji Sarkar

Caste re-engineering decides UP poll result

The BJP is prudently not taking Akhilesh Yadav lightly, considering that it is UP that will set the course for the 2024 general elections

The churning in UP is being keenly observed following the exit of some caste leaders from BJP. Is it caste reengineering or a repeat of the Bengal elections where a similar exodus was seen from the ruling TMC to BJP?

Caste is more powerful in states like UP than "vikas". It is a complex situation. As a footnote also, it would be interesting to observe whether development would be a vote generator or not.

It is interesting to recall that host of leaders, MLAs and other leaders joined the BJP in Bengal and most had got tickets too. Only a few got elected in the 2020 Bengal assembly polls election among the 73 MLAs. The story did not end there. After Mamata Banerjee romped home with a thumping majority, a reverse exodus started and continues till the day. That includes the Matua community leaders, who had helped the rise of BJP in the 2019 elections.

The comparison is slightly incongruous. The politics of Bengal and UP are different. The common refrain is whether a Bengal-like situation is developing in UP.

Does it mean that Samajwadi party has become powerful and can dislodge BJP? Not easy to say but SP is doing caste reengineering almost the way BJP did it some years back. SP leader Akhilesh Yadav is roping in different smaller caste groups. Since December 11, 2021, 17 leaders quit BJP and most of them have joined SP.

Most of the leaders leaving BJP since December 2021 are from different OBC groups having influence in different areas. This includes Omprakash Rajbhar of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, a caste-based party of Rajbhars. They are among the extreme backward OBCs having influence in many parts of eastern UP. 

Swami Prasad Maurya is the leader of another caste group spread in about 30 constituencies. Following him so far, four others Roshan Lal Verma, Bhagvati Sagar, Roshan Lal Prjapati, ministers Dara Singh Chauhan and Dharampal Saini have quit the party and more are said to be in the queue.  UP deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya hints that these people left the party for their selfish ends. The overall perception gaining ground is that the SP has won back its lost ground with Jats of Jayant Chaudhury's RLD and minority groups. Yadavs largely are with the SP. Akhilesh Yadav trying to win over smaller parties is again an attempt to unite splinter caste votes, a strategy that helped UP BJP in 2017.

BJP spokesman Sangeet Ragi says that like in the previous election, BJP is replacing about 50 to 60 per cent MLAs and those who left, did so fearing rejection of tickets. Of late, another caste leader of Apna Dal is also clamouring to fight on 36 seats in the state elections. So far BJP has offered five. It is not easy for BJP to concede its strongholds to caste parties. It also cannot strengthen smaller parties at its cost.

The BJP has its concern. It cannot leave the field to caste parties and empower their leaders. The concern is legitimate. Most caste leaders have been given important party or ministerial portfolios. They are not losing the opportunity to further increase their clout in their regions. This does not serve well for the BJP or its cadres for its national goals. The cadre is unhappy in different pockets and the BJP has to take care of them during these critical times.

The party and allied organisations' cadre manage BJP campaigning right down to the booth level. It is they who make voters move to the EVM booths. The social engineering that had helped the BJP win 325 of 403 seats also brought a baggage of smaller parties. These parties cause many problems for the big brother. The smaller groups are viewed as a burden but nobody can say so. In a way those leaving BJP are helping it, the party leaders believe.  A concern also remains how to keep those caste groups along.

Those leaving BJP include Brahmins, and extreme backward classes and Nishads, who in 2017 had given the party an edge. They are from places like Prayagraj, Ballia, Bahraich, Sant Kabir Nagar, Sitapur, Azamgarh - all in eastern UP. There are some defections from Agra and Bulandhshahr too. Challenge is being noticed in key western UP areas in Mathura, Aligarh, Hathras, Baghpat and adjacent areas, wherever the RLD has its influence.

As the SP is seemingly gaining enough to pose a challenge, the BJP also has successfully tried some defections from other parties. It however apparently is not at even keel. Belligerent Akhilesh Yadav is challenging the statement of chief minister Yogi Adityanath - 80 per cent with BJP and 20 against - by reversing it in his favour. He is criticizing Yogi for giving it a communal tinge. The BJP feels heightened Hindutva would help it meet the opposition challenge.

The party won about 100 seats with margins of 100 to 2000. These seats are a matter of concern. It is more so as SP is supposed to have increased its vote share from 21.5 per cent in 2017 to 31 per cent. The BJP vote share remains around 40 percent as per poll surveys. It had 39.67 per cent votes in 2017. This means while the SP has added to its kitty, BJP share remains stagnant or it has not been able to add more support despite its focus on Hindutva, Ram temple, Vishwanath corridor and Sri Krishna temple.

A BJP election organizer in eastern UP says that this is a small concern. The party is confident about the edge it has against SP. It has also to see how Congress acts in this election. Though nobody says it has much of strength but its recent road shows, and the approach of Priyanka Gandhi, may cause some surprises in pockets. So far, no Congress-SP understanding is on the cards. If that happens there may be some difference in results. BSP for now remain an enigma.

The BJP organisers feel that BJP gains in western UP would be limited. It has to gain the maximum from the east. In central Avadh region too, it may have mixed bag.

The rise of SP is being noted by BJP who says the former has its baggage to deal with. After the recent panchayat elections, an aggressive Yadav posturing is said to have annoyed people in the rural areas. It reportedly reminds them of its 2012-17 lawless regime.

The minorities aligning with SP may also hurt it - that is yet another perception. The en bloc voting of the minorities causes reactive voting and that helps BJP. The Hindutva and minority factors may help BJP get back to power.

In this entire discourse, development is not really a major poll issue despite some claims by BJP and barbs by the opposition against it. So far, the poll planks revolve around Modi, Yogi, Akhilesh, temples and castes.

Joblessness, farmers issues and inflation hurt people but yet not centre stage despite the opposition harping on it.

The BJP is prudently not taking Akhilesh lightly considering that it is UP that will set the course for the 2024 national elections. Nobody would have a cakewalk. The scenario remains complex and interesting.

(The writer is a senior journalist. The views expressed are personal.)

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