India will be wise to learn from the misfortune that has befallen Sri Lanka

By this time, we all know that Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will resign tomorrow since he is left with no more room to manoeuvre after angry protesters stormed the presidential palace and the Prime Minister’s residence and parked themselves there comfortably, vowing not to leave until both the leaders formally resign. Actually, the resignation of Mahinda Rajapaksa as the Prime Minister in May was the beginning of the end of the Rajapaksas, and the Saturday storming “a natural outcome”. With incumbent Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe also offering to resign, the Government in Colombo is in a state of turmoil. But the moot question is this: Are there any lessons for India to draw from these unfortunate developments? As for the island nation, everyone can see the extreme deprivation caused to its people due to the absence of staple food at an affordable price in markets and the shortage of petrol and diesel at the fuel stations. Of course, there was a combination of several factors (COVID, dwindling forex reserves, depreciated currency, over-dependence on imports and the Russian invasion of Ukraine) that brought Lanka to this sorry juncture.

Also, the origins of the linguistic disenfranchisement of the Tamils owed partly to the appeasement of the Buddhist clergy, which is almost exclusively Sinhala. It not only caused the alienation of the Tamil-speaking population but led to the formation of the Tamil Tigers, and then a civil war. The Tamil Tigers were finally vanquished, but it took over two-and-a-half decades. Meanwhile, there was an exodus of Tamils, the better-off leaving for the West and, those who could escape, heading for Tamil Nadu. While all uncertainty stalls investment, private investors would be particularly reluctant to commit their money in a time of near anarchy; a State pursuing a civil war can hardly make up for this through public investment as it is bound to be severely fund-constrained due to its military operations. Nor would it have much time to address stress points that arise from time to time in any market economy, let alone plan for economic development. Sri Lanka’s woes are economic on the surface but stem from social strife that has been exacerbated by majoritarian identity politics fanned by the State. As for India, it must learn from its neighbour’s misfortunes and step up domestic production across sectors.