The Ukraine invasion has unveiled Putin’s plan: He not only wants to stop NATO’s advance in the vicinity of Russia, but also has a grand plan to help Russia gain its lost glory. And the path to that goal hinges on the new post Cold War global order he is trying to make

While keeping the channel for truce open with rounds of talks with Ukraine, it seems Russian President Vladimir Putin is in no mood to stop attacks on Ukraine till he attains his objectives, which include resetting the US-led liberal world order. Embattled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is begging for help from the international community, particularly from America, but except supplying weapons and slapping severe economic sanctions on Putin and his cronies, the West has, so far, miserably failed to stop the Russian strongman. The whole world is a mute spectator to the crisis.

The magnitude of Russia’s multi-pronged invasion is unparalleled after the Second World War. The attacks on Ukraine are not just about teaching Zelenskyy a lesson for choosing to get away from the Russian sphere of influence, but the invasion is a tell-tale sign that Russia and Communist China are trying to redefine the global liberal world order dominated by the US-led West since the end of the devastating war in 1945-46.

Succinctly, the West could not grasp grim signals emerging from many corners of the globe, especially from an emerging Russian Federation that has grown by leaps and bounds under the leadership of Putin since 1999. In fact, the breakdown of the USSR should have been a stern warning for the US as it opened the stage for resetting the Cold War-infested world order by the resurgent Russia.

Putin has always been an enigma for the US. The “grand spy master”, Putin has an inner desire to bring back the glory of the old Russian Empire. And therefore the Russian invasion and Putin’s war moves were foretold. By the end of 2021, Moscow presented a list of demands to Washington, saying these need to be met urgently to stave off an immediate conflagration in neighbouring Ukraine.

His message to the West was straight and unmistakable - if these demands are not met or considered immediately, Russia will have to resort to military action to settle it. And finally, Putin did the same on February 24 by heralding the spectre of the Third World War to Europe.

This week Putin said Russia would achieve its goals in Ukraine. He also underlined that his country would not surrender to what he termed as “Western attempt” to achieve global dominance and dismember Russia. He also advanced his opinion that Russia is ready to discuss neutral status for Ukraine.

Putin declared, “Russia would never break down or back down, they don’t know our history or our people.” This makes absolutely clear what Putin wants from the West and out of the debris of Ukraine.

As America’s image has taken a severe beating for its inability to save Ukraine from Russian assault, US President Joe Biden tried to weave a favourable narrative by branding Putin “war criminal”. While retorting to Washington’s “unforgettable rhetoric”, Moscow has threatened that it has all the wherewithal to cut the world’s superpower down to size. It also accused the US-led West of stoking a “Wild Russophobic Plot” to tear the modern Russian Federation apart.

The moot point is whether the “war crimes” threat of the US is deliverable? Can Putin and his forces be booked by the UN body under war crimes? As a matter of fact, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is regarded as the most brazen illegal war ever launched by a sovereign state against another since the end of the Second World War. This aggression of Moscow has clearly violated the principles of the UN Charter that prohibits the “use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state”. The western media claim there is an avalanche of evidence that the Russian army is committing war crimes across Ukraine simply by targeting non-combatants i.e. civilians.

Today, Ukraine’s 44 million people are facing the continued onslaught of the Russian Army from all sides. And more than three million Ukrainians have left for the neighbouring countries. Paul Dillon, spokesperson of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), said: “We have now reached three million marks in terms of movements of people out of Ukraine to neighbouring countries. And among these people there are 157,000 third-country nationals.” Further, some 1.5 million children have now joined the exodus from Ukraine.

The view of the Mariupul Drama Theatre indicates that it was a shelter for 1,000 people in the war-torn zone. The saddest part of the tragedy is that the theatre in the front and back was earmarked in white colour as “Deti” meaning children in the Russian language. Despite such labelling, the bombing was carried out on the shelter. Hundreds of civilians were hiding there in the columned theatre in central Mariupol after their homes were devastated by the Russian forces. These facts are sufficient evidence of war crimes.

The facts, however, are not always taken into account in geopolitics, especially when the accused is a mighty power. With veto-power-building China openly backing Russia, the efforts to try Putin and his men as war criminals would prove futile.

Seen in that perspective, Putin warned that if the Ukrainians continue to resist, they “risk the future of Ukrainian statehood”. It is a clear indication that Putin wants Ukraine to surrender unconditionally.

It is an all-out conflict. If Putin is claiming that he has an upper hand in this stand-off, he really has. Putin has consolidated his power and vanquished all his enemies over the years.

Initially, it seemed that Russia was only concerned about NATO expansion in Eastern Europe. Putin is trying to bring a permanent freeze on the further advancement of the alliance’s military infrastructure like massive bases and weapon systems in the territories of erstwhile Soviet Union, an immediate end to western military assistance to Ukraine, and a ban on intermediate range missiles in Europe.

The Ukraine invasion has unveiled Putin’s plan: he not only wants to stop NATO’s advance in the vicinity of Russia, but also has a grand plan to help Russia gain its lost glory. In the path to that goal hinges on the new post Cold War global order. Putin has delivered a massive setback to the US-led world order. And, China under the leadership of Xi Jinping has offered its shoulder to Putin. It shows a new world order is in the making. Its only aim is to prevent the democratic liberal order once ruled by the West.

(Dr Makhan Saikia has taught political science and international relations for over a decade in institutions of national and international repute after specialisation in globalisation and governance from Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai. He is the chief editor of the Journal of Global Studies, an international research journal)