The Opposition challenge in upcoming Assembly elections must not be Utopian

The assembly elections have elements of surprise, feelings of relief, introspection for the opposition, diminution of smaller parties and a question whether 2024 Lok Sabha would be a cakewalk for the BJP or counter a new challenge. The path to 2024 can possibly be replicated through sound economic progress, less of privatisation, stable rupee and emancipation that can boost the pride of individual voters - a new order. The BJP and allies reclaim UP with reduced mandate; unexpectedly trounce Congress in Uttarakhand though its chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami loses; and retain Manipur and Goa. The Congress loses the remaining glory. The Samajwadi Party may not have been that powerful in dislodging BJP but certainly has broken barriers to cut down BJP numbers. Aam Aadmi Party springs the greatest surprise by winning Punjab by a whopping margin. The political tsunami of its leader Arvind Kejriwal started with Chandigarh UT’s local body. In Punjab, AAP demolishes all traditional political powers. It is likely to emerge as a major contender in the ensuing Municipal Corporation of Delhi elections. The move for reunifying three MCDs into one is credited to the rise of AAP. His rise is a challenge to the entire privileged political class. It complicates comprehension of the electoral mood. The electorate have gone through a period of turbulence, difficulties, social tension on account of three farmers’ bills, Citizenship Amendment Act 2019, demonetisation, GST, marginalization of SMEs, an acute pandemic that sent at least over 12 crore people trekking back to their homes and bodies of the Covid dead in the Ganga river. It follows a severe stagflationary situation, with food, edible oil and commodity prices reaching new highs. The Samajwadi Party’s performance denotes the simmering anger but Akhilesh Yadav has to come out of his caste cloak to look at new realities in a changing Indian society. His caste engineering did not work wonders.

The difficult economic pangs are forgiven but not forgotten by the soothing new MY (Modi-Yogi) touch.  Or are the people merely satisfied by the food and cash doles and free benefits? Difficult questions but the electorate, possibly believing that a BJP dispensation can perform better, threw their lot with it. That the contest was too close is testified by an array of seats being won or lost by low margins. The BJP leader’s sharp assault on SP’s ‘love’ for minorities could not prevent 35 Muslims from getting elected to the UP assembly. It is also being claimed that the poorest among the minorities may have supported the BJP thanks to benefits of government houses, gas cylinders and free food. Not only in UP but other states as well.    The RSS-BJP understands that Yogi Adityanath’s 80: 20 formula has paid dividend again despite Samajwadi Party’s touted bonhomie with kisans, Jats and minorities in western UP. Parties like the BSP must be worried with vote share plunging to 12 percent.  It means that BSP leader Mayawati is no more the force to lead her Dalit vote bank, particularly Jatavs, despite Amit Shah exchanging niceties with her. Evidently, a new Dalit politics is surfacing. It changes the scenario for BJP too in its march to 2024 elections. If SP acts with vigour, forges effective national alliances with TMC of Mamata Banerjee, NCP of Sharad Pawar, Shiv Sena, TRS, the residual Left and may be also the Congress, a resistance can be put up. The impending Gujarat and Himachal polls would set the tone. If such alliances remain utopian,like the Goa experiment of Mamata Banerjee, the BJP may remain comfortable.But an emerging Kejriwal can create a national alternative as voters can break away from identity silos. Punjab is a lesson.

(The writer is a senior journalist. The views expressed are personal.)