Bypoll losses in Rampur and Azamgarh put Akhilesh in a spot; signs of the Samajwadi Party losing core constituencies visible

The Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav’s absence from the campaign trails in the Azamgarh and Rampur Parliamentary constituencies was the talk of the town in the run up to the bypolls. He wasn’t alone in skipping the campaigning, for senior party leaders from his party also gave the campaigning a miss.

When the questions were raised about the party leaders skipping the campaigning, Akhilesh Yadav told one of his acquaintances that “even if I do not go to Rampur and Azamgarh, the Samajwadi Party will win both the seats”. And he did not campaign even for a single day in the two Parliamentary constituencies.

This overconfidence of Akhilesh Yadav proved detrimental for the Samajwadi Party as the party lost both the byelections even while Rampur and Azamgarh were considered to be the bastion of the party. In the aftermath of the defeat, the SP leaders blamed the government machinery, with Azam Khan and Akhilesh Yadav even saying that the district administration acted as puppets in the hands of the ruling party to ensure the victory of the BJP candidates.

The bypoll outcome calls for introspection from the SP and Akhilesh Yadav, because it is the fourth election the party has lost under his leadership. The last election Samajwadi Party won was in 2012 when Akhilesh Yadav was the state president of the party and Mulayam Singh Yadav was the national president of the SP. In 2012, the SP contested the Assembly elections while projecting Mulayam Singh Yadav as the Chief Ministerial candidate and won the polls. But, Akhilesh Yadav became Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh and also became national president of the party by carrying out a coup. Since then the party has lost elections, one after the other.

Under his watch, the Samajwadi Party has reached its lowest number in Lok Sabha. The SP now has just three members in the Lok Sabha, while the party in 2019 had five MPs. Akhilesh Yadav had won from Azamgarh and Azam Khan represented the Rampur Lok Sabha seat. The bypolls in the two seats were necessitated following their resignations after winning the Assembly polls from the Karhal constituency in Mainpuri district and the Rampur Sadar seat respectively.

Azamgarh and Rampur are Muslim dominated seats and the ground equations favoured the SP, which banked on Muslim-Yadav combination. Even the MBCs such as Rajbhars were in support of the SP because of the party’s alliance with Suheldeo Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) of Om Prakash Rajbhar. The Rajbhars are in sizable numbers in the Azamgarh Lok Sabha constituency.

While the BJP had breached the SP's stronghold in the Rampur Lok Sabha seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it was seen as a fluke, as party’s Nepal Singh won from Rampur in a triangular contest, with the SP and the BSP candidates splitting the votes. But the Rampur Lok Babha bypoll was bipolar, while the SP banked on the 50 per cent Muslim vote base. The SP gave a free hand to Azam Khan, because Rampur is his ‘karmasthali’. Azam Khan fielded Asim Raza in the bypoll, but couldn’t prove to be successful in creating a wave in his favour.

The Azamgarh bypoll verdict gave the biggest blow to the SP. Akhilesh Yadav had two big challenges in Azamgarh. He had to defend the seat that he had won in 2019, while the SP chief had also to justify the decision to field former MP from Badaun Dharmendra Yadav from Azamgarh. For a long time, the SP has been winning the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat. Mulayam Singh Yadav won from there in 2014 and five years later Akhilesh won the seat comfortably.

The political equation of Azamgarh is quite suitable for the SP. About 27 per cent Yadav and 23 per cent Muslim voters together decide the election victory. The Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat consists of Mehnagar, Azamgarh Sadar, Mubarakpur, Sagdi and Gopalpur Assembly seats.

The BJP had won the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat in 2009, but this victory was more on account of Ramakant Yadav than the party. Ramakant Yadav had joined the BJP after his stints in the SP and the BSP. In 2014, the BJP fielded Ramakant Yadav against Mulayam Singh Yadav, but he lost. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Akhilesh Yadav defeated Dinesh Lal Yadav of the BJP by more than 2.59 lakh votes.

The Muslim-Yadav equation worked in favour of the SP in the 2022 Assembly elections, as the party won all the 10 seats here. Another reason for the SP’s loss from Azamgarh could be Shivpal Singh Yadav, who had a lot of influence in the constituency. In 2014, he ensured the victory of Mulayam Singh Yadav by camping in the constituency. His appeal still holds strong among the voters. Insiders in the SP said that in view of a rift between Akhilesh Yadav and Shivpal Singh Yadav, the latter refused to take part in the campaigning. The SP candidate Dharmendra Yadav twice tried to persuade Rs Chacha’ because it is no longer a secret that Ram Gopal Yadav's son Akshay Yadav lost the election in Firozabad in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections due to Shivpal Singh Yadav's displeasure. But in the absence of clear signal from Akhilesh Yadav, the Chacha refused to take part in the electioneering.

In Rampur, there was a split in the Muslim vote bank. Ghanshyam Lodhi, the BJP candidate, was in the SP till January this year. At one time he was considered very loyal to Azam Khan. On January 14 this year, he joined the BJP and destroyed the citadel of Azam Khan. The Nawab of Rampur Naved Mian also played a crucial role in ensuring the BJP candidate’s victory, because Azam Khan had targeted the Nawab family during the election campaign.

The byelection results have sent a message loud and clear to the SP that Muslims are angry with the party. After the 2022 Assembly elections, the Muslim community disenchantment with the SP has been the talk of the town. Azam Khan was also reportedly angry with the party leaders. There were a series of incidents which showed growing displeasure of Muslim leaders with the SP functionaries, including Nahid Hasan and Shahjil Islam. Questions were asked as to why Akhilesh Yadav was reluctant to speak for Azam Khan and protest the demolition of the petrol pump of his party MLA?

Even the SP allies have begun questioning Akhilesh Yadav and his leadership skills. Om Prakash Rajbhar of SBSP went on record to say that Akhilesh Yadav should come out of AC comfort and wage a war on the street. He even said that the SP has not come to power because of the follies of Akhilesh Yadav. “The people who get the power due to the dynasty do not understand its value,” Rajbhar said.

Akhilesh Yadav has to understand the ground reality as also the pain and anguish of his allies.

(Author is Political Editor, The Pioneer, Lucknow.)