It can be concluded that a much larger escalation is on the horizon in the Korean peninsula. Kim is not backtracking from his nuclear agenda. It would be wiser on the part of US President Joe Biden and other world leaders to bring Kim to a concrete dialogue at the earliest. America’s intention to call Kim for a talk without any condition might seem good for the region and for the international community. But how far that comes to reality will be watched over the next few months as President Biden is currently tied up in resolving the Ukraine crisis
Kim Jong-un, the reclusive dictator of Democratic People’s Republic of North Korea (DPRK), is again in the limelight. After a long pause, he is trying to test the patience of the international community. He conducted a missile test that could have reached the US territory of Guam in the South Pacific. It is recorded as North Korea’s longest-range test since 2017. In fact, this was his seventh such test in January this year, making it the most launched month in Kim’s decade-old rule in North Korea.
The DPRK can well be regarded as the last Stalinist state surviving from the Cold War days. Kim Il Sung, the founding President of the country, was the one who built the nuclear programme. The infrastructure for such facilities were built in a place called Yongbyon, nearly 60 miles north of the capital city Pyongyang. By the 1990s, this initiative led to the first nuclear stand-off between the DPRK and the US.
However, the then Clinton Administration acted swiftly to defuse the impending crisis in the Korean peninsula by signing the historic Agreed Framework with North Korea in the year 1994. This timely initiative brought a sudden halt to the nuclear advancement research of North Korea. Else this could have been a catastrophe for the whole world as one single family and its rulers are in absolute control over the entire country.
Today, Washington talks of deterrence when it comes to developments in North Korea, but it seems Kim will not strike unless attacked first. But how long? He is finding no way out to pressurise the West to come to the negotiating table. His frustration is growing. He should not be pushed to the brink of a nuclear crisis.
Let’s have a look at how the US is dealing with North Korea since the beginning of the Cold War. It all started on June 25, 1950, when North Korea dispatched nearly 75,000 troops to South Korea that set off the historic Korean War. Within days, the US joined the war in favour of South Korea and marked the beginning of one of the first series of proxy wars of the Cold War era. Though the war ended in July 1953, the Koreas got divided with an inclusive borderline called 38th Parallel. However, this war left nearly 2.5 million people dead within three years of the start of the tragic war. And Washington for the first time reshaped its new foreign policy, including its modern approach towards nuclear deterrence.
Another aspect of North Korea’s rising belligerence is the continued support of China over the years for the Kim regimes. In fact, Beijing’s policy towards the Korean peninsula is purely based on a strong geopolitical calculus. Further, many strategic experts are of the opinion that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s support to North Korea will be intact irrespective of the strands of the concerned nations over Kim’s intransigence. Chinese financial and business support directly facilitated the whole nuclear initiative of North Korea. And eventually, helped its economy running and dividing the Korean peninsula in the coming days.
During 2017-18, there was a debate in Beijing whether to continuously support the clandestine nuclear agenda of the Kim regime or not. Many scholars argued that China should abandon the DPRK in favour of its close bonding with South Korea. But despite the global uproar, Xi has so far not dumped the Kim regime, particularly in regard to the latter’s nuclear programme. There are solid reasons behind the crucial decision that Beijing Communists have taken: firstly, for China, peace and stability is preferred to a possible denuclearisation of North Korea. Why China, even the other four members of the six-party group i.e. America, Japan, Russia and South Korea that oversees the denuclearisation initiative, firmly believes that Kim will not abandon its nuclear programme. And it is the heart and soul of its survival.
Only due to its nuclear aspect, the entire Korean peninsula is disturbed which the Kim regime strongly uses as its bargaining chip; secondly, China maintains three big no’s in regard to Kim - no war, no instability and no nukes. And China has been trying to stop military confrontation in the region. Thirdly, China knows fully well that once a war-like situation arises, there could be a massive flow of refugees from North Korea to its hinterland. Further, China has great apprehension that North Korea’s chemical weapons could spread contamination all across China and in the Korean peninsula through the secret agents of Kim. Possibly, a collapsing DPRK could endanger the security and tranquility of the whole region. Hence China handles Kim very carefully and it does not matter to China whether the US and the rest of the world like it or not.
The latest test was an intermediate-range ballistic missile. The official North Korean media displayed the pictures of the Hwasong-12 launching and entering into space. This week once again the Kim regime boasted of shaking the world by testing missiles that can strike America easily. The hypersonic missiles that Kim tested in the month of January shocked the world. A statement from the Foreign Ministry of the country said that a series of tests since the New Year 2022 represented remarkable achievements that strengthened North Korea’s war deterrence. The Ministry statement said: “In today’s world, many countries waste time dealing with the US with submission and blind obedience, there is only our country on this planet that can shake the world by firing a missile with the US mainland in its range.” It seems the DPRK is completely geared to meet any nuclear eventuality and is enhancing its nuclear research to the danger level.
How has Kim come so far? One of the plausible reasons may be international pressure was relieved over him. North Korea continued its proliferation activities in all these years. Pyongyang carried out all internationally prohibited programmes and the US-led global pressure waned significantly.
While planning his moves, Kim is very cautious from the very beginning. He has remained below the threshold, knowing fully well that in 2017 his regime conducted a powerful ICBM test. And he saw the reactions emerging from different quarters of the world. Being the heir of a time-tested family of authoritarian chiefs, he could foresee how the international opinion can flow against his ghettoised Communist regime.
Is there any chance that US-North Korea relations make any progress towards denuclearisation? Today the US State Department reiterated its past statements that it harboured no hostile intent towards North Korea and urged a return to dialogue at the earliest. But according to the Washington, Pyongyang has persistently ignored any such invitation for dialogue. In fact, the US called on North Korea to defund its nuclear and ballistic missile programme and prioritise the agenda to address the needs of the poor. However, the US and South Korean officials said they fear the launch of Hwasong-12 on January 30 could be a step towards fully resuming tests of North Korea’s ICBM’s and nuclear weapons. The real danger lies there only.
In a nutshell, it can be concluded that a much larger escalation is on the horizon in the Korean peninsula. Kim is not backtracking from his nuclear agenda. It would be wiser on the part of President Biden and other world leaders to bring him to a concrete dialogue at the earliest.
The problem called DPRK won’t go away so easily. In fact, it is a part of a larger problem and power play of the US and China, in particular. Probably former American President George W Bush was apt in describing North Korea as “the crossroads of radicalism and technology”. Now America’s intention to call Kim for a talk without any condition might seem good for the region and for the international community. But how far that comes to reality will be watched over the next few months as President Biden is currently tied over the Ukraine crisis.
(Dr Makhan Saikia has taught political science and international relations for over a decade in institutions of national and international repute after specialisation in globalisation and governance from Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai. He is the chief editor of the Journal of Global Studies, an international research journal)
