This is not a war that Russia’s population was prepared for either, as the invasion was rubber-stamped by a largely unrepresentative Upper House
The attack on Ukraine by Russia is potentially the onset of war in Europe on top of Russia’s behest for an end to NATO’s eastward expansion. The launch of the major invasion by Russia on Ukraine started with air and missile assaults on Ukrainian military targets before troops and tanks went across the country’s northern, eastern, and southern borders. On many fronts, the Ukrainian military fought back but it cannot withstand the Russian mighty onslaught for the lack of outright support from the NATO.
Since the invasion of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine has been living in fear of war with Russia for nearly eight years. Russia and Ukraine have been at odds for a long time, with Russia claiming Ukraine as a part of its country and opposing Ukraine’s developing ties to the West. Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to recapture the former Soviet Union Republic. He requested that the Ukrainian military put down their weapons. Prior to its cessation in 1991, Russia and Ukraine were both members of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), which consisted of 15 republics.
The heat between Russia and Ukraine have existed for a decent amount of time, they began to escalate out of control in early 2021. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President hinted the US President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to join the NATO forces in January of last year.
This Russia is highly infuriated, which began sending soldiers near the Ukrainian border for “training exercises” in the spring of last year and boosted the number in the fall. The US began to hype that there is a deployment of Russian troops, and President Joe Biden had threatened Russia with heavy sanctions if Russia attacked Ukraine.
Russia wants a legally enforceable promise from the US that NATO forces will not conduct any military operations in Eastern Europe, especially in Ukraine. According to the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is merely a puppet of the US and was never a real sovereign country in the first place.
This isn’t the first time that conflicts between Russia and Ukraine have erupted. Russia had previously invaded Ukraine in 2014, it happened when pro-Putin separatists captured major swaths of eastern Ukraine, and they have been fighting the Ukrainian army since the invasion. Russia also annexed Crimea at that time.
Ukraine has extensive social and cultural ties with Russia, and Russian is widely spoken there, but those ties have deteriorated since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014.
When Ukraine’s pro-Russian president lost in early 2014 elections, Russia came to an offensive. It is estimated that more than 14,000 people had died as a result of the continuous war happening in the east.
The Minsk peace agreement was signed by Russia and Ukraine to end the ongoing violent armed conflict, which was going on in east Ukraine, including Donbas region. However, as the armed conflict continues, Russia said that it would be sending “peacekeepers” to the affected region.
The rising tension between Russia and Ukraine, which shares a border with the European Union, has ramifications for the European Union. This is why the European Union has joined the US in declaration of the penalties against Russian firms, the majority of which the NATO members.
By air, land, and sea, Russia has launched a devastating attack on Ukraine, a European democracy of 44 million people. For months President Vladimir Putin had denied he would invade his neighbour, but then he tore up a peace deal, sending forces across borders in Ukraine’s north, east and south.As the number of dead climbs, he is now accused of shattering peace in Europe and what happens next could jeopardise the continent’s entire security structure.
Airports and military headquarters were hit first, near cities across Ukraine, including the main Boryspil international airport in Kyiv.Then tanks and troops rolled into Ukraine in the north-east, near Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million people; in the east near Luhansk, from neighbouring Belarus in the north and Crimea in the south. Paratroopers seized a key airbase just outside Kyiv and Russian troops landed in Ukraine’s big port cities of Odesa and Mariupol too. Withina few days Russia is likely to capture the capital of Ukraine Kyiv after capturing the second largest city Kharkiv. Putin then is likely to declare the cease-fire after installing a puppet government of his choice.
These are terrifying times for the people of Ukraine and horrifying for the rest of the continent, witnessing a major power invading a European neighbour for the first time since World War Two. It will seriously affect the world economy especially that of Russia including India where fuel prices have already risen by Rs 12.
The invasion has knock-on effects for many other countries bordering both Russia and Ukraine. Latvia, Poland and Moldova say they are preparing for a big influx of refugees. A state of emergency has been declared in Lithuania and Moldova, where thousands of women and children have already entered.
This is not a war that Russia’s population was prepared for either, as the invasion was rubber-stamped by a largely unrepresentative upper house of parliament.
Nato has put warplanes on alert but the Western alliance has made clear there are no plans to send combat troops to Ukraine itself. Instead, they have offered advisers, weapons and field hospitals. Meanwhile, 5,000 Nato troops have been deployed in the Baltic States and Poland. Another 4,000 could be sent to Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia.
Instead, the West is targeting Russia’s economy, industry and individuals.
The EU has promised to restrict Russian access to capital markets and cut off its industry from latest technology. It has already imposed sanctions on 351 MPs who backed Russia’s recognition of the rebel-held regions
Germany has halted approval on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, a major investment by both Russia and European companies
The US says it will cut off Russia’s government from Western financial institutions and target high-ranking “elites”.
The UK says all major Russian banks would have their assets frozen, with 100 individuals and entities targeted; and Russia’s national airline Aeroflot will also be banned from landing in the UK.
Ukraine has urged its allies to stop buying Russian oil and gas. The three Baltic States have called on the whole international community to disconnect Russia’s banking system from the international Swift payment system. That could badly impact the US and European economies.The Russian city of St Petersburg will no longer be able to host this year’s Champions League final for security reasons. Europe’s football governing body Uefa is also planning further measures.
Putin wants Nato to remove its forces and military infrastructure from member states that joined the alliance from 1997 and not to deploy “strike weapons near Russia’s borders”. That means Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltics.
In President Putin’s eyes, the West promised back in 1990 that Nato would expand “not an inch to the east” but did so anyway.
(The writer is former Senior Professor, International Trade and Member, Vivekananda International Foundation. The views expressed are personal.)
