Shinde may have numbers but Uddhav has party

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Shinde may have numbers but Uddhav has party

Tuesday, 28 June 2022 | Kalyani Shankar

Shinde may have numbers but Uddhav has party

Uddhav kept himself in splendid isolation, not realising that his priority should have been keeping his flock together

Is the ongoing Maharashtra political crisis an ideological battle within the Shiv Sena or the inability of Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray to convince his Sainiks about his soft Hindutva? Or is it the BJP's ambition to eliminate all non-BJP governments? Or is it for the realignment of political forces? It is perhaps a combination of all.
When Uddhav headed the MVA coalition Government in 2019, doubting Thomases were busy speculating how long his government would last. It was because of the heterogeneous nature of the coalition. True to their prediction, Uddhav has been facing crisis after crisis since then. Now it has come to a head.
The party faces a vertical split in a fast-developing drama, unless there is a realignment of political forces or the two warring factions come together. There is also the danger of the MVA coalition Government collapsing.
Uddhav woke up on June 21 to hear about the brewing revolt within his party, led by his Cabinet colleague Eknath Shinde. Also, Shinde was not alone as he had mobilised some 30-odd rebel legislators.
In the past three years, Uddhav has grown as one of the prominent Opposition leaders, rubbing shoulders with powerful chief ministers like Mamata Banerjee (West Bengal) and M.K. Stalin (DMK).
Ironically, the present problem is not from the allies but from within Shiv Sena. In an emotional speech, he recently said, "The sad part for me is that my people (Shiv Sainiks) have lost trust in me."
Ignoring the rebellion within the party that has been brewing for some time, Uddhav kept himself in splendid isolation, attending to Covid relief and Opposition politics at the national level. He did not realise that his priority should have been keeping his flock together.
The Shiv Sena and its long-term partner Bharatiya Janata Party fought the 2019 polls together. The BJP won 106 seats; the Shiv Sena bagged only 56. Together, they would have comfortably formed the government in the 288-memberAssembly. But then the Sena wanted the post of Chief Minister to be shared as discussed before the polls between the partners, but the BJP rejected it. Sena had become the junior partner in the past decade.
It was not the first time the Sena faced rebellion, as three revolts happened under the watch of its charismatic founder Balasaheb Thackeray. He was a mesmerising personality—audacious, smoking pipes, wearing sunglasses and saffron clothes, and even drinking his favourite drink, beer. He was respected by a few but feared by all. Even the Pop King, Michael Jackson, posed with Thackeray and got clearance for his solo concert in India.
Balasaheb Thackeray’s ability to create mass hysteria gave him a larger-than-life persona, though he himself never contested elections or held power. A master orator, he got his party to power in 1995 and aligned with the BJP in the 1990s, which lasted for decades. He anointed his son Uddhav as working president in 2003 against his nephew Raj Thackeray. Uddhav is seeing the fourth revolt now.
But Uddhav’s primary miscalculation was taking his Sainiks for granted. He failed to sell his brand of soft Hindutva or the controversial nature of his coalition or alliance with Congress. He also should have been careful about projecting his son Aditya at the cost of some senior leaders. Instead he remained inaccessible to even his senior ministers.
Thirdly, the Sainiks could not be comfortable with the coalition partners as they had grown for decades fighting the Congress. Some sections of the Sena felt that the alliance was damaging the party's growth.
Fourthly, the rebels apprehend scrutiny from the Enforcement Directorate, the Central Bureau of Investigation, and income tax officials. They see returning to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance as a way out of this unnecessary harassment.
To escape the rigors of the anti-defection law, the Shinde group has to satisfy the test of two-thirds of elected members. NCP chief Sharad Pawar has rightly said the real test would be the floor test. Hence Hobson's Choice before Eknath Shinde and his supporters.
Uddhav cannot fight on two fronts—the might of the BJP and the growing number of rebels. He may have to compromise or lose both his party and the government. Since Shinde has invoked Balasaheb's name and ideology in his demands to Uddhav, the Thackeray clan must also ensure keeping Balasaheb's legacy.
While the legal battles may go on for months, the ongoing drama has to end sooner or later. In all probability, there is likely to be a realignment of political forces.
It will be challenging for Uddhav to unite the party. If he does so, he will emerge as a strong leader. He has the advantage because the party is with him, though some of the legislators are not. Above all, he has the Thackeray surname.

(The writer is a senior journalist. The views expressed are personal.)

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