The Govt should focus on education and economy rather than on plans to control population

Union Minister Prahlad Singh Patel’s statement that there would soon be a law to control population, may revive the debate over the issue. It is undeniable that rapid population growth undermines economic development, especially the efforts to eradicate poverty as raising per capita income becomes difficult. Per capita income of a nation is reached by dividing its national income by its population. It is the average amount of money every national earns. It is a major economic indicator. India’s per capita income was hovering around $2,000 before the novel Coronavirus hit the world. India figures very low in the global per capita ranking, around 145. After the COVID pandemic, and the lockdowns that ensued, it fell further, going below even that of Bangladesh, the country which is widely known for its poverty and misery. Rise in population adversely affects the rise in per capita income. It is, therefore, imperative that the growth in population is reined in. Thankfully, there is some good news on this front. The total fertility rate (TFR) — that is, the average number of children born to any woman in her lifetime — came down from 2.2 in 2015-16 to 2 in 2019-21. This was one of the major findings of the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey, or NFHS-5. The survey, which began in 2019, was conducted for over two years. In fact, India’s current TFR is below the replacement level of fertility of 2.1. The replacement level fertility means zero population growth: in a generation, a population exactly replaces itself.

The slowdown is the result of decades of Government efforts, economic development and modernisation. NFHS-5 underlined a few trends. For instance, there was a correlation between high population growth and poverty. The TFR in Bihar was 2.98, followed by Meghalaya (2.91), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26) and Manipur (2.17). Incidentally, the five States are also among the poorest in the country. Another interesting aspect was that the number of children per woman declines with women’s level of schooling. Further, the education levels among women are inversely related to the number of children they are likely to bear. The TFR for unschooled females was 2.8 children, whereas it was 1.8 children for women with 12 or more years of schooling. Evidence clearly shows that economic growth and education are the best cures for high population growth rate. So, while the Minister’s concern about population control is genuine, the way out that the Government seems to be contemplating, a law to check the growth rate, may not be quite needed. Worse, such a law can also be construed or misconstrued as a move targeting Muslims — something an aspiring economic power can ill afford. It must also be noted that while population growth among Muslims is higher than that in other religious groups, it is declining, as among other religious communities. It would be better to let the trends continue and increase focus on education and economic growth.