The BJP in its run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections should not be taken lightly. It has organisational and official strength to bounce back

With four phases over, elections in Uttar Pradesh go east, including to Amethi, Ayodhya and Gorakhpur. Here, the number of migrant workers who were subject to ill-treatment during the first Covid-19 lockdown is the highest. The mood here is influenced by rising prices in the region which already has high poverty levels. They have been hit hard periodically, since after demonetisation.

Stray cattle are a big issue. In the east like in the west, they devastate farm produce and there is no way to resolve the problem. The “gomata” approach of the BJP after coming to power has swelled the number of its adherents. Linguistic minorities like Bengalis and Punjabis are largely with BJP.

Efforts of Congress leaders Priyanka Vadra and Rahul Gandhi to activate the party and a possible tacit tie-up with Samajwadi Party can make some difference to opposition numbers. BSP has committed Jatav votes but other Dalits may split among various parties. The Hathras gang-rape may realign Valmikis who previously voted BJP.  So may the Unnao incident in central UP.

Since 1985, UP has not re-elected an incumbent government. If Yogi succeeds, he would establish a record. The BJP is not leaving it to chance. Even during the 2017 poll, the state did not see so many top BJP leaders campaigning. Home Minister Amit Shah is continuously visiting and is said to be the organising mastermind. Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed over 11 large rallies till the beginning of poll process attacking communal “samajwadis”: The latter say that is keeping SP in the reckoning.

Deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya contesting from Sirathu near Allahabad faces hostile crowds like many ministers like Shrikant Sharma, Suresh Rana, Sangeet Som did in the west. Sharma was jeered all over in Mathura. Former central minister Mahesh Sharma was shooed away from his home village in Bulandhshahr for not visiting the area. In all these incidents, the BJP workers remained silent spectators. The SP-RLD had interestingly pitted Pallavi Patel, a good orator and sister of central minister Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal against Maurya cornering him in the constituency.

Would it change the voting pattern that was overwhelmingly for BJP in 2017? Not easy to say. The state government's reported diktat to government employees to coerce postal ballot voters has reportedly caused consternation. There is a SP-RLD push back on account of this while the poll staff have now distanced themselves from parties.

The BJP is surprised the way SP leader Akhilesh Yadav has done his social engineering. This has led the SP penetrate hitherto impregnable areas like Agra and Mathura in the west and as well as many other seats in the east. The diligent home work of Akhilesh helps SP by having a wider alliance with caste groups beyond the Yadavs and his family members.  Similarly, Jayant Chaudhury had spread his wings and emerged as more than a Jat leader in the aftermath of the year-long kisan agitation. The kisan, Gujar, Pal, Baghel, Prajapati and similar smaller caste groups have moved to SP-RLD.

There is also a conflict between who takes the credit for welfare programmes. The SP-RLD combine accuses BJP of grabbing credit for programmes introduced by SP and other governments.

Even Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath himself is said to be roughing it up in Gorakhpur as his disciple Sunil Singh on SP ticket faces him and alleged erstwhile area strongman, Hari Shankar Tiwari's family opposes.

But there is a different aspect to it all. The minority votes lining up for SP-RLD have fuelled a counter-passion for BJP's Hindutva, Ayodhya, Vindhyavasini temples and Krishna temple in Mathura.  An Aligarh professor Sajjad saidbefore the polls in western UP that overtly the minorities, Jats and farmer groups appear to be together but they may not be as cohesive as they appear. The voting may not reflect the overt mood.

RSS leader Indresh Kumar has activated his Rashtriya Muslim Manch to woo the Christians and Muslim minorities groups in Lucknow, Amroha, Moradabad and now even in Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur to help BJP. Kumar has had separate meetings with Muslim women and his media coordinator Shahid Sayeed says the women who benefited by triple talaq annulment are with BJP. Many also have received PM Awas houses.

The BJP in its run up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections should not be taken lightly. It has organizational and official strength to bounce back. Its leaders say that even with lesser seats than 325 now it would have enough to be in power.

(The writer is a senior journalist. The views expressed are personal.)