Rising temperatures and untimely rain linked to climate change seem to have had an impact as 2021 witnessed a manifold rise in dengue cases compared to 2020.

The vector-borne infections and mortalities stood at 193245 cases and 306 deaths in 2021,  the highest since 2018. In 2020, the number of dengue cases stood at 44525 while 56 deaths were reported.

In  the first four months till April this calendar year, the country has reported over 8,000 dengue cases but in a major relief, death has been limited to one only. Unreported the fatalities though haven’t been ruled out.

According to reports, the country is likely to see erratic and excessive rainfall in various pockets towards the end of September which will result in a surge in cases of dengue.

In fact, some of the States like Karnataka which is witnessing rains have started reporting an increase in vector-borne infection cases in the past few days.

For instance, the number of dengue cases registered in the Dakshina Kannada (DK) and Udupi districts in Karnataka increased rapidly in the recent weeks. In the past four months, DK has reported 48 dengue cases and 20 among them are from Mangaluru City Corporation limits, as per various reports.

In 2021, the maximum deaths due to dengue were reported from Rajasthan at 96 followed by Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Kerala.

Infection-wise, most of the States registered a significant spurt in dengue cases in 2021 when compared to the previous year. The ICMR has already attributed rise in dengue cases in many parts of the country to the climate crisis and increasing urbanization.

In fact, last year in September, in a high-level meeting chaired by Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba and attended by representatives of 11 affected states/UTs, the government had flagged the emerging challenge of serotype-II dengue which is associated with more cases and more complications than other The States reporting serotype - II dengue cases were Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, MP, UP, Maharashtra, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana.

Several scientists and medical journals had earlier warned about the link between global warming and climate change with the spread of diseases such as malaria and dengue.

According to a study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) published in The Lancet Planetary Health journal, a rise in temperature of nearly 3.7 degrees Celsius over the next 80 years may lead to the “worst-case scenario.”

The study stated that nearly 8.4 billion people (or nearly 90 percent of the estimated population) would be at risk for malaria. In case of dengue, the modelling estimated around 8.5 billion people would be at risk in 2080 compared with an average of 3.8 billion in 1970-1999.

An analysis of data available from 400 stations of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) across the country indicates that in the last 50 years, the number of hot days has increased manifold. Scientists say that heat waves incidents are projected to increase eight times in the near future and will spike to alarmingly 30 times in 2071-2100.