India has shown a 100 per cent increase in new Covid infections so far this month, with the test positivity rate (TPR) — a vital marker in assessing the spread of an outbreak — touching 2.26 recently. This has evoked fear of a fourth Covid wave gripping the Nation. Doctors say no need to panic as no new Variant of Concern has been found. But, it’s time to mask up and adopt Covid-19 appropriate behavior (CAB) and work on enhancing immunity, they caution. The HEALTH PIONEER reports
After witnessing a decline in Covid cases till mid-May, the Coronavirus has gradually started moving towards northward, less than a month after the country was opened up post the third wave. This has evoked fear of a fourth wave in the country with some states like Maharashtra and Karnataka bringing back the mask mandate in the public.
On June 11, with 8,329 fresh Covid-19 cases and 10 deaths in the last 24 hours, India reported the highest number of daily cases in months. While the total active cases stand at 40,370, the country saw 4,216 recoveries. On Friday, the country had reported 7,584 cases and 24 deaths.
Analysis of the data shows that in just ten days, cases have doubled while the test positivity rate (TPR) – the number of positive cases out of the total tests conducted has increased to 2.3 per cent, which is the highest since February.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that the pandemic is not yet over. Tedros noted that 18 months after the first mass coronavirus immunization programs began in rich countries, 68 countries have yet to protect 40% of their populations.
While enough vaccines are now available, demand has fallen, he said. "The perception that the pandemic is over is understandable, but misguided," the WHO chief said. "A new and even more dangerous variant could emerge at any time, and vast numbers of people remain unprotected."
However, doctors in India blame Omicron sub-variants to be behind the spike in Covid caseload in the country. And since it is mild in nature, one should not panic, they assured.
India has reported a gradual rise in coronavirus infections since mid-May as BA.4 and BA.5 sub variants of the Omicron strain of SARS-CoV-2 made their way into the country.
The doctors asserted that the ongoing surge in Covid-19 cases in some parts of the country should not be seen as the start of the fourth wave of the pandemic. Most people are protected by prior infection and high vaccination coverage, they reason.
“It's wrong to say the 4th wave is coming, we need to examine district-level data. A high number of cases in a few districts can't be considered as a uniform increase in cases across the whole country,” said Samiran Panda, ADG, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).
“There is no reason to believe that the current rise in Covid-19 cases heralds the beginning of the fourth pandemic wave in the country,” Dr Sujeet Kumar Singh, director of the National Centre for Disease Control, which heads the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Surveillance (INSACOG) project told a media house.
According to Singh, while the rise in cases may be the result of the spread of the BA.4 and BA.5 sub variants in several states, it does not mean much given India’s hybrid immunity in the wake of prior infection with other omicron sub variants and high vaccination coverage.
Dr N K Arora, chief of the Covid-19 working group of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation, expressed similar views. “Rise in cases was the result of unbridled domestic and international travel by Indians after a long gap.” He dismissed fears that the country is in the grip of the fourth wave. Mumbai has been reporting a sharp rise in cases over the past several days. In the first five days of June, about 4,000 cases were registered — higher than the number reported in the whole of March and April and almost the same as the total in May.
"It’s because of businesses and travel returning back to normal and many people getting exposed to the virus,” Arora said.
He added, INSACOG’s surveillance so far had shown that there is no new variant at play, other than Omicron sub variants.
Dr Rahul Bhargava, from Fortis Hospital in Gurugram, Haryana called for a guarded approach. “These wave patterns will continue to affect mankind. We need to have a strategy by making rapid changes in our daily life, by bringing mask and social distancing back in our lifestyle quickly as cases rise.
“At the same time we need to have robust genome surveillance to keep a watch on the rise of new variants. Research needs to clearly guide us on the frequency of covid vaccination in the frontline and high risk group,” he suggested.
With immunity becoming a buzz word during Covid-19 pandemic, Dr Tanuja Nesari, Director of the All India Institute of Ayurveda (AIIA) talked about the importance of holistic well-being in checking the virus as well as other infections. She stressed on adopting time tested home-remedies and ayurvedic immunity herbs like Chyavanprasha, AYUSH Kwath and herbs like Tulsi leaves, crushed ginger and turmeric could be beneficial in developing overall immunity.
In this regard, she cited recovery of over 400 patients from Covid-19 in their institute through Ayurveda. Only 4% needed integration with oxygen, she said.
