India to be a major player in the multipolar world

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India to be a major player in the multipolar world

Friday, 26 May 2023 | Simran Sodhi

A multilateral world would be to India’s advantage. It would also be welcome by the Global South which looks up to India for direction and leadership

There is a shift underway in the international system. The ongoing Ukraine conflict, the emergence of the Indo-Pacific as a centre for global politics, and the relentless rise of China have all resulted in a move away from a unipolar or bipolar world order to a multipolar one. This move is also one which suits India very well. As India positions itself globally as the leader of the Global South and a rising power, multipolarity assures India a position as one of the centres of power. This thought was very evident in the address made by External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar at the recently held EU-India Pacific Ministerial Forum in Sweden where he pointed out that, “The more European Union and Indo-Pacific deal with each other, the stronger will be their respective appreciation of multi-polarity. A multipolar world is feasible only by a multipolar Asia.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rather busy calendar is another indication in this direction. The G7 Summit in Tokyo which also saw a Quad Summit on the sidelines, a visit to Papua New Guinea and then Australia all tie in to this thought. The PM’s much-anticipated visit to the United States next month, which is only the third State visit by a foreign leader in US President Joe Biden’s tenure, will further cement not only India’s growing stature on the world stage but also be a timely pointer towards multipolarity. It is a shift India well understands and is cautiously working towards.

 The Ukraine crisis has hastened this change. While the US and its Western allies have and continue to routinely condemn Russia over its actions, India has stuck to its guns and played it according to her interests. There was much pressure on India during the first few weeks of the conflict to censure Russian actions but the fact that India did not do so and eventually it also brought about a change in Western attitudes has been a fine diplomatic victory for India. In March last year Biden had termed India’s response to the Ukraine conflict as ‘somewhat shaky’. But with time the messaging out of Washington changed with a gradual acceptance of India’s position.

India has consistently abstained from the United Nations at resolutions brought in by the Western world against Russia. This has helped India retain an old friend. About half of India’s military supplies come from Russia. Courtesy of the Ukraine conflict, India’s trade with Russia is at a record high. Despite the never-ending critique, India continues to buy oil from Russia. It is also worth remembering here that Russia used its veto power in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) many times when resolutions on Kashmir were tabled. The fact that India has done this fine balancing act, of maintaining and strengthening ties with both the US and Russia, makes it a unique power centre in itself.

Another point in the study is, of course, the Quad (a grouping of the US, India, Japan and Australia). It would not be an overstatement to say that the Quad today is one of the most influential groupings in the world of geopolitics. It is also essentially a forum to check China. As the politics of the Indo-Pacific take centre stage in the world, India becomes an even more valuable ally not just to the US, but to the entire Western world.

 For India, China remains the biggest worry. China’s aggressive behaviour at the border and its expansionist agenda in the South China Sea have almost every world leader worried. The Ukraine conflict has also seen another related development and that is the tightening of embrace between China and Russia. And that is unlikely to make India comfortable. That somewhere again takes us back to the argument that for India, censuring Russia over the Ukraine conflict would only result in a closer China-Russia nexus. Both Russia and China are wary of the West and critical of a world they feel is dominated by Western ideals and nations. The US-China trade wars and the sanctions against Russia by the Western powers have helped consolidate that feeling and what one sees is the beginning of an anti-West Block.

A multilateral world would be to India’s advantage and would also be welcome by the Global South. One of the end games of course would be a much-needed change in the structure of the UNSC and a permanent seat for India. That would also be more representative of the present world. The beginnings have been made but it's still quite a long road ahead.

(The author, a Delhi-based journalist and foreign affairs analyst, holds a Masters in International Relations from the US University)

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