Pakistan needs to mend fence with India to save itself from imploding

The recent statement by PM Shehbaz Sharif showing willingness to engage with India in meaningful dialogue to resolve the long pending issues, including Kashmir has baffled many. Indeed a country which has been at loggerhead with India and leaves no stone unturned to embarrass India on every international fora suddenly extending a fig leaf is to put it mildly, mind boggling. In fact Sharif went a step ahead and even said that Pakistan has learnt its lesson. This might have come as a shock to many in his own country which has a strong anti India lobby which would not like any weakness on the part of its political class, let alone its PM. However, if one digs deep, the reason for this peace initiative can be comprehended. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif demanded 'honest talks' with PM Narendra Modi on the Kashmir issue which is unprecedented for any Pakistan prime minister. But it is not a sudden change of heart. In fact, Pak PM was addressing real politico-economic issues which his country is facing right now. Pakistan’s economy is in pretty bad shape and almost a Sri Lanka like situation stares it in the face. It desperately needs aid of some four billion US dollars to save the day. Pakistan has almost zero reserves in its Central Bank.

The State Bank of Pakistan has only $4.2 billion in its coffers, which means Pakistan has only two-third weeks of import billing. Its foreign exchange reserves have dipped to $5.6 billion. Besides, Pakistan will have to repay nearly $8.3 billion as debt servicing over the next three months. It needs Saudi Arabia’s money. But Saudi Arabia, the longtime friend of Pakistan has reportedly asked it to review its policies and have better relations with India. Taking the cue, the Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif has made a peace offer to mitigate tension with India. It already has a plan on anvil to restore trade with India which would enable it to import basics such as vegetables, wheat, rice and medicines. The 2022 flash floods washed out Pakistan’s agricultural land and caused damages of almost $40 billion in infrastructure and crops. Moreover, the IMF is demanding a major cut in Pakistan’s military budget which weakens its army. Thus reducing tension on the border is imperative. Whatever the reason, any peace initiative must be accepted and open and honest dialogue must begin. It would be good for both countries and the whole of South Asian region as well.