The chances of a pro-India government in Nepal are bright as Prachanda has lost the support he enjoyed so far
At this juncture, as a shrewd politician, EX PM, Oli had fished in the troubled water and offered the post of prime minister to Prachanda who fell prey to this temptation. But it did not last long as Oli reportedly started arm-twisting and tried to push the Prachanda government into China’s lap which was unacceptable as the prime minister preferred to have equidistance with India and Dragon. It was a final nail in the coffin of Oli when he tried to supersede prime minister, Prachanda to have his loyalist as a presidential candidate which led to a revival of five parties' pre-poll alliance including the NC, CPN-Maoist Centre, CPN-Unified Socialist, Loktantrik Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janamorcha.
Prachanda and Oli are having a history of mistrust as the former was ditched by the latter when they were part of undivided CPN-UML which had come to power. Oli’s CPN-UML and Maoists Centre headed by Prachanda had forged a pre-poll alliance and contested the 2017 elections thereby winning 121 and 53 seats respectively. They had merged their factions but it was set aside by the supreme court in March 2018 which led to the dissolution of the parliament by Oli which was restored by the supreme court. It was responsible for Prachanda’s decision to part ways which resulted in the defeat of Oli during vote trust and the Nepali Congress-led coalition came to power.
Prachanda’s decision to join hands with Nepali Congress and seven parties was responsible for the withdrawal of the support by Oli’s CPN(UML) which has reduced the government to a minority but is bound to survive as a new combination will be in a position to mobilize the required strength of 138 MPs. Prachanda, Sher Bahadur Deuba, the Nepali congress president and CPN (Unified Socialist) of Madhav Nepal have agreed to share the power on a rotation basis for the rest of the tenure of the government which will ensure stability in Nepal in future.
CHINA TRIED TO INTERFERE Contrary to it eight parties including Nepali Congress will elect Poudel as a new president who is destined to play a crucial role in the preservation of norms of the constitution to strengthen the roots of democracy in Nepal. As per Nepali congress leaders, China’s embassy in Kathmandu had interfered in the country's politics and tried to unite two factions of communists but in vain.
Former PM, Oli had openly favoured China and opted for confrontation with India which may end after the formation of a new five-party alliance government in near future. Owing to China’s ambition to wean away Nepal from India to establish its supremacy in Asia, besides Oli’s CPN-UML having a Pro Dragon stance, it has been adding fuel to the fire and hence openly supported President Bhandari who had blocked the citizenship bill.
Experts say that Bhandari had dissolved the parliament arbitrarily and acted in an artisan manner on Dec 20, 2020, and subsequently refused to allow Deuba to form an alternate government. At this juncture, the supreme court had to rescue Democracy and directed her to follow the constitution. The Chinese embassy in Kathmandu had openly lobbied with communist factions and pressured them to remain united to create hurdles in the formation of the coalition government led by the Nepali Congress which is considered Pro-India. In contravention of the conditional obligations, Bhandari also attended a virtual meeting of the Chinese Global Security Initiative despite the strong reservations of the government.
PRESIDENT BHANDARI’S
CONTROVERSIAL DECISIONS
President Bidya Devi Bhandari will be remembered for her controversial decisions. Owing to China’s ambition to wean away Nepal from India to establish its supremacy in Asia, besides Oli’s CPN-UML having a Pro Dragon stance, it has been adding fuel to the fire and hence openly supported President Bhandari who had blocked the citizenship bill.
Experts say that Bhandari had dissolved the parliament arbitrarily and acted in an artisan manner on Dec 20, 2020, and subsequently refused to allow Deuba to form an alternate government. At this juncture, the supreme court had to rescue Democracy and directed her to follow the constitution.
The Chinese embassy in Kathmandu had openly lobbied with communist factions and pressured them to remain united to create hurdles in the formation of the coalition government led by the Nepali Congress which is considered Pro-India. In contravention of the conditional obligations, Bhandari also attended a virtual meeting of the Chinese Global Security Initiative despite the strong reservations of the government.
Analysts opine that the victory of the Nepali Congress candidate indicates that the five-party alliance will have no problem in forming a new government which will be set back to China but a relief to India as former PM, Oli had completely tilted towards China hence ties with India were at the lowest ebb. It will also ensure the implementation of the Agniveer project of recruitment of 25,000 Nepali youth in the Indian army which was kept in abeyance due to the negativity of Oli towards India.
((Writer is a political analyst who covered Nepal for six years. This is the second part of a two-part series on Nepal. The views expressed are personal. Concluded))
