Congress won handsomely in Karnataka but this may not have a great impact on 2024 general poll

The biggest takeaway from the Bharatiya Janata Party’s defeat in the Karnataka election is that strong state leadership is important in Assembly polls. It is true that the BJP has won without a chief ministerial face in the past but it does not mean that it can happen all the time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah make an excellent election-winning duo, but the saffron party must realise that it cannot rely on Modi all the time. The problem, however, is that the big two are not very fond of all state leaders. This was the reason that they ensured the exit of the BJP’s strongest state leader, BS Yediyurappa. This was despite the fact that Yediyurappa was the architect of the saffron party’s rise in Karnataka—the only southern state where the BJP is a party of some consequence. His forced exit did not go down well with his own community, Lingayats. With about 17 per cent of the state’s population, they are a big vote bank, and have been favourably inclined towards the BJP. Other Lingayat stalwarts like former chief minister Jagdish Shettar and former deputy chief minister Laxman Savadi were denied tickets. Shettar rebelled and joined the Congress. Though he lost the election, such developments were not taken kindly by the community. The community is said to have a major influence in 78 Assembly constituencies. The Congress reportedly won in 54 such constituencies.

Another takeaway is about the diminishing appeal of divisive issues that political parties espouse frequently—the issues like those of hard Hindutva and of Mandalite leaders. Former Karnataka chief minister Basavaraj Bommai, apparently in a bid to establish his Hindutva credentials, focused on hijab, halal meat, love jihad, land jihad, etc. The BJP top brass also tried to conflate Bajrang Dal with Bajrang Bali. But everything, including emotive issues, has a use-by date. Besides, the governance deficit is not very easy to be filled with an excess of sanctimoniousness and sentimentalism. There were serious charges of corruption against the Bommai government; sloganeering and red herrings could not whitewash its alleged misdemeanours. It must be mentioned here that the lessons must be learnt from the result of Karnataka election by not just the BJP but also the Congress and other Opposition parties. The high command culture can damage all parties. Similarly, recourse to high-flown rhetoric, mindless populism, and social justice divisiveness can be harmful to not just the nation but also the parties and leaders espousing them. As for Karnataka election’s on the general poll next year, BJP detractors would like to call it the beginning of the end of the Modi regime. But just as one swallow doesn’t make a summer, a loss in a state doesn’t mean that the BJP’s election machine has become rickety: 2024 will be another year.