In a recent development, a group of former MPs, MLAs, former Chief Minister Giridhar Gamang, social workers, farmer leaders, journalists and lawyers of Odisha joined the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Hyderabad (Telangana) on January 25. It is said that some retired bureaucrats, politicians and journalists, who are promoting the process from behind, are likely to join the BRS afterwards.
The increased electoral competition in the recent days and the adoption of various election winnability criteria by the political parties have left out or likely to drop out in future many low and non-performin politicians while it may lead to emergence of many new aspirants from the electoral system who are looking for new political parties in Odisha. There are also some cunning politicians and political aspirants who are looking for new political parties to make money even by swallowing party’s election funds. This is the demand side story for new political parties in the State.
On the supply side, the AAP’s electoral success in Punjab might have motivated regional parties to expand their operation from their mother States to other States to upscale their status from a State to a national party. Their motivation could range from becoming a true Samaritan of the people of another State to becoming a national political player, from increasing fund-raising and business -promotion scope to attaining a bargaining power to vote-division in the newly entered State and creating political chaos and divisive tendencies in the new State.
Unless a trans-boundary regional party explains its intention of expansion very convincingly, there shall be an obvious doubt on the genuine intention of a State party looking for green pasture in another State.
What has been the performance of the regional parties in Odisha in the 21st century? Except the BJD, no other State parties, either floated by leaders of Odisha or landed from other States, have survived in Odisha during the post-2000 electoral period. The NCP got electoral success in 2009 poll due to its alliance with the BJD. The three current political processes like the undiminishing popularity of Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, rise of the BJP and revival efforts of the Congress are not leaving any politically viable space for a new political party in Odisha now. In this situation, the AAP has declared to intensify its existing presence in Odisha while the BRS has entered into Odisha based on its own political calculations.
People are discussing about the reason of the BRS’ expansion to Odisha instead neighbouring and culturally more compatible States like Karnataka or Andhra Pradesh. There are various speculations making rounds concerning the BRS Chief and Telengana CM K Chandrasekhar Rao's (KCR) plan.
One such speculation attributes to fund -raising and good will vote gain for the BRS for the Telengana Assembly election due in December from its expansion to Odisha, especially to the mining and Polavurum project- belt of south Odisha.Poll strategist Prashant Kishore’s prescription of generating good will vote by spreading the pre Assembly poll message of becoming a national party has helped the regional parties like the AAP and TMC to fight successfully against the BJP in the past Assembly elections. The BRS might be following the same strategy for the next Telengana Assembly poll to fight against the BJP and the Congress.
There is another speculation too. The Central BJP is focussing on West Bengal, Odisha and Telengana as an electoral- cluster for 2024 Lok Sabha poll and has appointed its senior strategist and national general secretary Sunil Bansal as in-charge of the region. When the BRS is focussing on Odisha instead of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, there appears to be a match between the BJP and the BRS. Political observers speculate that the BRS’s expansion to Odisha may give it a political bargaining power vis-a-vis the BJP which it could use for changing the political equations in Telengana and Odisha in the forthcoming elections.
A few political theories emerge regarding the BRS’s eye on Odisha. One theory says that the expansion is for votes for converting the party from its regional status to the national status. The second theory says that the party might give the leadership of the Odisha-unit to someone from the undivided Koraput and heighten its presence with more focus on the undivided Koraput region till the Telengana Assembly poll and then slow down till 2024 general election and finally fizzle out.
The third speculation speaks about the BRS helping the BJP indirectly in 2024 poll by giving candidates to the dissidents or anti-BJD leaders to cut a small amount of BJD’s votes in certain low-margin-win segments while a fourth speculation speaks about the BRS helping the BJD to defeat the BJP by filling up the vacuum of the Congress in certain segments. The fifth speculation links the BRS’s expansionist move to its strategic fund-raising interests in mineral and dam concentrated south Odisha. The sixth speculation attributes to BRS's ambition of playing a leadership role among the opposition parties in 2024- Lok Sabha poll.
It is unlikely that the three major political players of Odisha such as the BJD, the BJP or the Congress shall go for pre-poll alliance with the BRS for 2024 election. Similarly, the BRS shall find it difficult to get a slice of the cake from the vote banks of the BJD or BJP or Congress in the villages. Coastal –Andhra telugu migrants will not like BRS, for sure. Its votes shall primarily come from the opposition or the non-committed voters.
Three factors shall contribute to the vote –building process of the BRS in Odisha such as its Chief Ministerial face for the State, the grassroots strength of the contesting candidates, the political narrative of the party and the communication system. Simple gathering of former leaders and novices might not help the party even to cross 5% vote share.
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