October is regarded as the month of cyclones for Bay of Bengal and Odisha as they experience cyclonic storms in the month almost every year.
As per the North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), there is a likelihood of formation of a low pressure area over east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining area during September 29- October 5 and a low probability (up to 33%) of cyclogenesis over the same region.
The NCEP GFS model forecasts indicate that a low pressure area would form over east-central-southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea around September 29 which is likely to move west-north-westward and intensify further into a depression over central Bay of Bengal and subsequently into a cyclonic storm over west-central Bay of Bengal during the next 3-4 days, the outlook said.
ECMWF and NCUM models are showing the formation of a low pressure area over the central Bay of Bengal with intensification into depression during September 22-28, and move further west-north-westwards towards north Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts during the first week of October.
International meteorologist Jason Nicholls has also made similar predictions. “Conditions can become conducive for low and perhaps a cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal late next week or during the 1st week of October,” he posted on X.