If the negotiations were multilateral, rather than bilateral, consensual, rather than dictated by a single leader, and competitive, rather than one-sided and biased, the representatives of the various nations could have sat around a table, and played trade-tariff poker. As the hands changed, some people would capitulate and fold, others would raise their bets, and the
casino owner could show his power, influence, anger, love, hate, desperation, frustration, deceit and revenge by simply changing the rules of the game.
In the process, while the casino would never lose, as it never does in real poker, it would force realignments between the various players. Age-old enemies, who were defined by their centuries-old hatred for each other, would smile at each other, and give signals about joining hands or combining their money power. Friends-turned-enemies could become friends, and vice versa. In this modern game, where winning is crucial, or at least not losing is, no one
would be able to predict friendships, partnerships and alliances.
Welcome to the table to watch a new wonderous variation of poker. For thousands of years, the emperors who ruled Japan and China thought that theirs was the centre of the Earth, and the whole world, rather the universe, revolved around their palaces. They had everything they needed, and the rest of the barbarous world had nothing to offer. Logically, Japan and China hated each other, and wished to subjugate the other. This was evident when Japan plundered China during the second world war, and captured the latter’s capital.
Ironic as it may seem, while the Soviet Union initially signed a Sino-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact, it switched sides, and stopped aid to China, after the Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact in 1941. It was the US, which saved China under the Lend-Lease Act, and became its main financial and military supporter, after Japan attacked Pearl Harbour. Of course, China claims that its Revolutionary Army won grand victories against Japan, and launched a full-scale winter offensive to checkmate and stalemate Japan.
How the tables have turned. Sorry, the cards and bets have changed. Since the end of World War II, the Capitalist US tried to cosy up to the Communist China, but in vain. The friendship turned vicious, even as China attained dictatorial contours, aggressively and successfully wooed American investments, and retained its independence from the so-called western
hegemony. The West was happy that the Soviet Union and China drifted apart, even as Japan rode on an industrial wave, only to fall into a western clutch.
Today, Japan hates America, although the former cannot say or show it publicly. Tokyo is inching towards Beijing, which it too it cannot claim publicly. American and China hate each other, so much so that they secretly respect each other’s economic power. Russia and China are the best of pals. Now, experts talk about a new Quad, India-China-Russia-and-a-reluctant-Japan, to replace the old one, India-Japan-US-Australia. Poker geopolitics is no longer poker-faced. We know the cards that nations hold. We do not know which ones they will discard, or the kinds of bets they will place in the future.
Let us look westwards, and think of the Anglo-American relationship. Britain established America. Rather, Britishers did, initially. Although it was an Italian, Christopher Columbus, who discovered the Americas when he voyaged westwards across the Atlantic Ocean. Then, the Americans fought with the Britishers, as the former’s tea party was spoiled, with the aid of the French, who hated the English. In the twentieth century, the US helped the Britain-France allies to defeat Germany, not once but twice, during the world wars.
In the process, America almost-decimated Britain, as the former imperialism was untangled, which had earlier provided the latter with enormous global power and dominance. As Britain weakened, the US and Soviet Union established their spheres of influence, and became bitter enemies during the Cold War. After the Berlin Wall came down, so did the Soviet empire, as a much-smaller Russia adopted the capitalist ways. But it harboured the Communist dream.
Today, Russia and America seem to be engaged in some unique form of under-the-poker-table footsie, sometimes caressing each other, and kicking each other violently at other times. The timing is random and chaotic. The US president Donald Trump and Russia’s supremo Vladimir Putin are in a love-hate-love-hate relationship, with both showing love, and hurling abuses. America pressurises the European Union members like France and Germany, but embraces Britain. Recently, Trump received a royal welcome in Britain.
By imposing sweeping duties and threatening tariffs across a wide range of products, and countries, Washington has forced partners and adversaries to reassess trade, security and diplomatic choices. The result is a jigsaw pattern, where former foes are coming close for a common cause, and traditional friends hedging toward rivals. Cooperation, conflict and confrontation shift daily. Poker faces are vanishing as the card players race to grab allies.
US tariff pressures pushed India to lean into alternative friendships, even if they are short-term ones. The most visible of them are the expanded ties with Russia on energy, and closer economic conversations with China. There is a group tango going on, apart from the card game, where regional countries that were historically at odds with each other, but which either share China-linked security concerns with the US, or do not like Russia, find an economic, business and strategic partner in India. New Delhi is truly sandwiched between Moscow, Beijing, Tokyo and Washington.
Recently, after months of agony, the White House exchanged pleasantries with New Delhi. Indian ministers winged their way to the US to finally finalise a bilateral trade deal. Until it is inked, which experts contend will happen sooner than later, India will continue to waltz across the trade-tariff dance floor, while rubbing shoulders with the US, and seeking suitable partners. So, while the players sit around the table to play poker, they take breaks to dance, tango and waltz, with either a single partner or multiple ones.
Russia, like the Bear, resides in diverse habitats, sometimes in a tango with India, China and the US, following omnivorous diets in terms of diplomacy and trade, yet reflecting a solitary behaviour. Thus, Moscow is both an energy supplier and diplomatic interlocutor to the West, and a foil, as it expands territorial influence that alarms Washington and its European allies. China, like the Dragon, breathes fire, even as it turns over for belly rubs.
Caught in this game is India’s neighbour, Pakistan, which turns left and right, or looks eastwards and westwards, as if to follow the path of an invisible tennis ball being lobbed by the two powerful players, China and America. While political masters in Islamabad seek a comfortable shelter under the Dragon’s wings, Uncle Sam extends a hand of support through luncheon meetings and business deals. When the US applies pressure, Pakistan seeks cushions and political patronage elsewhere. When Washington requires help to counter the combined might of Moscow and Beijing, Islamabad recalibrates its strategy to include cooperation with the West.
