What was expected to be a routine BJP head-start has turned into an engaging duel between a seasoned politician with deep RSS roots and a respected jurist known for his pursuit of social justice — both hailing from South India, where regional dynamics may heavily influence the outcome
Battlelines have been drawn for the impending Vice President election sooner than expected. No one was in any doubt about the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) quickly deciding on its nominee, primarily it had to be the decision of the BJP. What caused a surprise, surely even the BJP quarters were taken aback, was the alacrity with the which the Opposition’s I.N.D.I.A combine finalised their joint candidate quickly and without any fuss.
The line-up is Mr CP Radhakrishnan, Maharashtra Governor and a senior BJP leader from Tamil Nadu before entering Raj Bhawan, versus former Supreme Court judge Justice B Sudershan Reddy who hails from Telangana (Telugu land). The contest is between a hardcore politician with a strong RSS background and a legal luminary with a firm inclination towards social, political and economic justice which the legal experts feel was apparent from his observations and judgements during the course of legal career.
The fact that both the candidates belong to South India with different political formations ruling in Telangana-Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, and of course the domicile factor that plays an important role in deciding the voting pattern, holds a promise, the contest to be interesting. Numerically the BJP-led alliance leads the field, but the political contours in these states coupled with the fact that the electors- members of the two Houses of Parliament- are not bound by any whip, makes it look interesting.
It was never in doubt that fully equipped with the statecraft machinery, the ruling BJP will make a head-start in this race. Contrary to the expectations in the NDA camp that the rivals will quibble on candidate selection till the last day of filing nomination, it turned the other way round. The ruling dispensation’s head-start advantage lost some sheen with I.N.D.I.A bloc quietly and quickly deciding their candidate that too an apolitical, non-controversial and one with impeccable track-record public figure.
The common denominator in Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi-led dispensation’s thinking in any situation is how to derive the electoral benefit apart from juggling to get the votes and support from the rival camps. Simply speaking the end matters more to them than the means. And that has been the case with the selection of Mr Radhakrishnan, a former MP and Tamil Nadu BJP president, as his native state is due to face assembly elections early next year.
The two-pronged strategy behind his selection seems to be (1) impact the assembly elections, (2) and more importantly to push the ruling DMK and its leader Mr M K Stalin to a corner where he will have to think hard to vote against a fellow Tamilian. It could be fraught with serious electoral consequences for chief minister Stalin if not carefully handled, with Mr Modi and his team perfectionists in polarising and electorally exploiting such a situation.
No one had expected a deft counter move by the Congress-led combine, and within 24 hours (unlike Congress which is beset with indecision and factionalism). The fact that Congress and allies, after long spell of dithering, strongly came together on the issue of Special Intensive Review (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar barely three months before assembly elections, and painstaking effort of Mr Rahul Gandhi in culling out details of “fake voters and fake polling” in states such as Karnataka and Maharashtra, has led to I.N.D.I.A bloc acting from a position of strength.
Under the given circumstances, the Vice-President election is also about outdoing each other in the matter of setting a strong narrative. The I.N.D.I.A by fielding Justice Reddy and terming the poll as an “ideological contest” has stolen the march over the Modi brigade. Of course, winning is the ultimate goal of every election.
Selection of Justice Reddy, in fact, has turned out to be a jaw-whacking and unsettling punch for the NDA’s candidate. If Mr Radhakrishnan was brought to corner Mr Stalin in the former’s home state into voting for the fellow Tamilian, Justice Reddy’s, though a non-political entity, is in a similar vein targeted at the Telugu Desam Party chief and Andhra Pradesh- part of the Telugu land- chief minister Mr Chandrababu Naidu who is an NDA ally. And also, the main opposition party, YSR Congress president and former chief minister Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy who had announced his support for the NDA candidate even before the I.N.D.I.A bloc had announced its candidate.
It will be interesting to see how the situation now pans out in Andhra Pradesh. As it is Telangana is ruled by the Congress. All eyes will be rivetted on Mr Naidu and to some extent on Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy on whether they will shut eyes on a fellow Telugu and a Reddy (in the case of Jagan). Both of them will be at a greater risk to invite local ire. After all, Mr Naidu had, despite his strong anti-Congress background, backed Mr P V Narasimha Rao, who hailed from Andhra Pradesh, when he became Prime Minister. He had justified his support for Mr Rao calling him ‘Telugu Bida’ (Telugu elder brother).
Nevertheless, the BJP has a clear advantage on another front-the MPs are not bound by any whip and have the opportunity to caste a conscience-vote. Will the saffron party, with all the where-withal- be able to exploit this situation or will the I.N.D.I.A bloc voters be guided by “ideological battle” theme of Congress president Mr Mallikarjun Kharge made at the time of announcing Justice Reddy’s candidature?
An unrelated but not totally detached development which took place as the rival sides were announcing their candidates, was the curious turn which election to the Constitution Club of India, a Club for the MPs and ex-MPs, took place. It was the BJP versus BJP direct contest for the post of all important secretary (administration) which saw two fellow partymen pitted against each other, representing two powerful lobbies within the BJP. As the grapevine has it the winner Mr Rajiv Pratap Rudy was backed by Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath He defeated former MP and an acolyte of Home Minister Mr Amit Shah, Mr Sanjeev Balyan, convincingly.
This is for the first time in the last over a decade that the current BJP’s internal dissent became public that too in an insignificant club election.
If the theory of the two powerful leaders testing their might and the mightier losing it out, is true, then chances of replays in the Vice-Presidential elections cannot be ruled out. The one BJP leader backed by Congress and entire opposition won over the other having blessings of the BJP’s top brass in Delhi. The star-studded electorate was led by Congress veterans, Mrs Sonia Gandhi, Mr Kharge and Home Minister, Mr Shah and others which was unprecedented.
Can Mr Rudy, also a commercial pilot apart from being a six-time MP, become catalytic in lending more strength to the opposition? This is a very interesting proposition the outcome of which is in the realm of probabilities.
Will the fall-out of the Constitution Club election impact Vice-Presidential polls? It will be interesting to see what role Mr Rudy, a dynamic leader and parliamentarian, who has openly taken cudgel with the Modi-Shah combine, plays in the Vice-Presidential election. After all he has the backing of fellow Thakur, the UP chief minister. Isn’t it the pay-back time for him since the main architect of opposition backing him was Mr Rahul Gandhi?
The writer is Political and National Affairs Analyst
