After months of relative calm, COVID-19 cases are once again climbing in India and many parts of the world. As of early June 2025, several states have reported a noticeable uptick in daily infections, with urban clusters seeing a higher positivity rate. While the numbers are not yet alarming compared to previous waves, the increase has reignited public concern and drawn the attention of health authorities. So what is driving this latest rise, how is it different from earlier waves, and what should people do now?
What’s Causing the Spike?
Experts attribute the current surge to a mix of factors. One of the key drivers is the emergence of new variants, particularly FLiRT variants such as KP.2 and KP.3, sub-lineages of Omicron that have evolved with mutations helping them partially evade immunity from previous infections or vaccinations. These variants are not necessarily more severe, but they are more transmissible.
Another contributor is seasonal behaviour. Just like flu tends to peak during certain times of the year, COVID-19 now appears to show a seasonal trend, especially with the monsoon approaching in India. People are spending more time indoors, increasing the likelihood of airborne transmission in poorly ventilated spaces.
Increased travel, public gatherings, and a general sense of pandemic fatigue — where people have relaxed masking and distancing norms — also play a role. Many no longer adhere to precautions like wearing masks in crowded spaces or staying home when symptomatic, which adds fuel to the spread.
Are the Symptoms Any Different This Time?
According to doctors, the symptoms seen in the current wave are broadly similar to those in previous Omicron-driven surges. Patients typically report mild to moderate symptoms such as fever, sore throat, nasal congestion, fatigue, and cough. Some also experience body aches, headaches, and gastrointestinal symptoms like nausea or diarrhoea.
What’s different, however, is that most cases are milder, especially among vaccinated individuals. Hospitalisations and ICU admissions remain low, with a majority of patients recovering at home. Those most at risk continue to be the elderly, people with weakened immunity, and those with underlying conditions such as diabetes or lung disease.
Despite the lower severity, public health experts caution that a mild virus can still pose a threat at the population level if it spreads unchecked. Even a small percentage of severe cases from a large infected population can strain healthcare resources.
Mortality Rate and Serious Illness
As of now, the mortality rate remains low, though isolated deaths have been reported, often in individuals with comorbidities or advanced age. It’s important to note that COVID-19, while less deadly now than in the early pandemic years, still carries a risk of serious complications, including long-term COVID-19 — an umbrella term for persistent symptoms that can affect the lungs, brain, heart, and more.
India reported a few recent deaths in individuals who tested positive for COVID-19, but health officials are cautious about linking the deaths directly to the virus without deeper investigation. COVID likely acted as an aggravating factor in people already unwell from other causes.
Vaccination: Is There a Need for a Booster Now?
India had seen impressive uptake for the first two vaccine doses, but booster coverage remains low, particularly among younger adults. Many took their last dose more than a year ago. While vaccine — induced immunity does wane over time, it still offers substantial protection against severe disease.
Globally, updated vaccines targeting newer variants are being developed, but in India, the availability of such formulations is still limited. Current vaccines — primarily Covishield and Covaxin — do still offer partial protection. At this point, experts are not recommending universal re-vaccination, but those who are elderly, immunocompromised, or have underlying illnesses may benefit from a booster in consultation with their doctors and in accordance with Government guidelines. The concept of herd immunity also needs to be revisited. With the virus evolving and immunity waning, the population’s collective defence is not as robust as once assumed. Hence, periodic vaccination or updated boosters may become a seasonal norm much like the flu shot in the future.
Should We Be Worried?
This is not a situation that calls for panic, but complacency is also dangerous. The rise in cases is a reminder that COVID-19 has not disappeared. Instead, it’s transitioning into an endemic pattern — present in the population at lower, fluctuating levels. So far, no alarming red flags have been raised. However, given India’s large and dense population, authorities remain cautious and are urging people to report symptoms and get tested if necessary.
What Precautions Should People Take?
The tools to stay safe remain the same, and they are simple but effective: Wear a mask in crowded indoor spaces or when visiting healthcare settings.
Wash your hands regularly and avoid touching your face unnecessarily. Do not ignore symptoms like persistent fever, chest discomfort, or shortness of breath — seek medical help early. Community awareness campaigns must be revived to prevent the false sense of safety that can lead to sudden spikes.
(The writer is consultant at CK Birla Hospital and is a seasoned internal medicine specialist. Views expressed are personal)
