It was in February 2018 when the then Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in India on a state visit stretching for over a week. It did not prove to be what Trudeau expected, with New Delhi delivering a diplomatic snub to him for what it perceived as his Government’s pandering to secessionist Khalistani elements based in Canada. In the years since, bilateral relations deteriorated to a point that New Delhi and Ottawa no longer had envoys posted in each other’s capitals.
Now, New Delhi and Ottawa are finally working to get the derailed ties back on track and restore stability and trust in the relationship, which had suffered a body blow in 2023 when Trudeau told the Canadian Parliament that his country’s security agencies were probing credible allegations that the Indian Government was behind the killing of pro-Khalistan leader Kuldeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian national, in June that year.
With Trudeau’s exit as PM and former banker Mark Carney succeeding him in March this year, frayed bilateral ties are on the mend. A meeting between Carney and PM Narendra Modi in July this year, on the margins of the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Canada, set the ball rolling. There was a desire when the two PMs met to bring “momentum to the relationship”, as stated in the joint statement issued following Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand’s recent meeting with her Indian counterpart, Dr S Jaishankar, in New Delhi.
Anand’s Visit Signals Thaw
Anand’s three-day official visit (October 12–14) here clearly underlined that both sides have realised that a prolonged strain in ties will only be to their detriment, especially as both negotiate a world order that’s increasingly in flux, partly due to US President Donald Trump’s tariff measures and other policies. Amid this geopolitical uncertainty, the need to forge a strong economic partnership has made New Delhi and Ottawa push for a rapprochement
A ‘New Roadmap’ Anchored in Economic Cooperation
The ‘New Roadmap for India-Canada Ties’ the two sides have mentioned in the joint statement following the foreign ministers’ meeting has, as its underpinning, the economic dimension of the relationship. New Delhi, of course, has made sure that Ottawa does not ignore its concerns on the Khalistan issue. Therefore, the joint statement took note of the need for a “balanced partnership grounded in respect for each other’s concerns and sensitivities” and “a commitment to upholding the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity”.
The Road Ahead: Managing Sensitivities, Building Trust
Ottawa will need to remain sensitive to New Delhi’s concerns on the activities of Khalistan supporters operating on its soil, which the latter believes is essential for its own national security. India, too, will need to display above-board behaviour on issues like Nijjar’s murder.
There is huge potential for both in bolstering their economic cooperation. Carney would understand this well, having been the Governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He has already promised economic recovery for his country and is also seen as someone with the required credentials to deal with the steep tariffs imposed by Trump on Canada.
Trump has twisted the knife in further by more than once proclaiming that Canada should become the 51st state of the US.
Canada, consequently, is seeking to diversify its trading partnerships beyond the one it has with the US. It sees a suitable partner in India, which too is driven by its own economic imperatives.
The India-Canada economic interests are also seen as converging as part of their shared Indo-Pacific outlook. Expectedly, New Delhi and Ottawa have decided to give an impetus to their trade and energy ties. The decision to initiate discussions at the ministerial level on bilateral trade and investment is a step in the right direction.
With discussions on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) getting stalled in 2017, the two sides will need to give impetus to eventually working out a trade pact. Bilateral trade was worth $23.66 billion in 2024.
Energy Security: A Cornerstone of Cooperation
The decision to re-establish the Canada-India Inter-Ministerial Energy Dialogue will also help bilateral ties. With energy security being a cornerstone of India’s economic development, New Delhi and Ottawa’s move to promote two-way trade in LNG and LPG, as well as invest in oil and gas exploration and production, could be a win-win for both. While India needs to diversify its energy basket, Canada has huge reserves of petroleum and is in need of a market.
Conclusion
India and Canada can certainly build a robust, mutually beneficial partnership, particularly in the economic arena. Both, however, will have to take utmost care that the Khalistani elements active in Canada do not succeed in torpedoing bilateral relations once again.
The writer is a senior journalist who writes on strategic affairs
