As China rises as a dominant force in a multipolar world, Japan must navigate the challenge of balancing its historical baggage with maintaining its relevance

In December 2024, Japan’s Ministry of Defence, through its influential think tank, issued a report that presents an unflinching look at China’s meteoric rise and its implications for the global balance of power. Titled The Rising Global South and China, the report offers a sobering analysis of how China’s strategic outreach to the Global South—its diplomacy, economic investments, and military presence—poses not only a challenge to the existing international order but also to Japan’s place in the world. While the report forms a key element in Japan’s evolving worldview regarding its neighbour, it is but one piece of a much larger, more complex puzzle.

The evolving dynamics between China and Japan demand a deeper exploration, not just of economic rivalry, but of historical tensions, ideological shifts, and global transformations that are redefining power structures across Asia and beyond. Why, one might ask, is it crucial to understand Japan’s view on China in 2025? The answer lies in the seismic shifts currently reshaping the international order, where China is positioning itself as the hegemon of a new, multipolar world, and Japan must navigate an increasingly treacherous geopolitical terrain. This is not simply about Beijing’s growing economic influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or its dominance in trade and investment in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.

The contest runs deeper, revealing an ideological, military and moral confrontation where Japan’s historical burdens, particularly its unresolved wartime past, complicate its ability to assert leadership in the face of China’s rapid expansion. “Based on field research in Cambodia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Angola, and elsewhere, the report points out that the expansion of Chinese aid under the principle of non-interference in internal affairs may reduce the effectiveness of Western ‘democratisation pressure’ that uses aid as leverage.”

Consider, for a moment, China’s overwhelming presence in the Global South. While Western powers remain preoccupied with their domestic crises, Beijing has formed vast strategic partnerships, economic dependencies, and infrastructural investments across continents.

From Africa’s mineral-rich lands to West Asia’s energy corridors, China has inserted itself as both a benefactor and an enforcer, using its vast financial resources to extend its influence.

It has become the world’s largest creditor, with loans amounting to over $1.3 trillion since 2000, a sum that far outstrips Japan’s modest foreign assistance initiatives. In the face of this, Japan’s model of development aid—praised for its transparency and sustainability—has paled in comparison. Japan’s approach, while effective in certain regions, lacks the scale and sheer audacity of China’s outreach. Moreover, Japan’s preoccupation with economic stability and its often subdued geopolitical ambition has left it on the back foot as China has aggressively pursued its vision for a new international order.

It is not just economics at play here. There is a deepening ideological divide. The language China uses to frame its influence in the Global South is couched in the rhetoric of anti-imperialism, South-South cooperation, and solidarity with the developing world.

This resonates profoundly with nations that have long been subject to the whims of Western powers. Beijing, adept at using its soft power, positions itself as the champion of the Global South, contrasting its rise with the history of exploitation by colonial and imperial forces. By leveraging its economic might, China is building a coalition of nations willing to challenge the existing global system, one dominated by the US and its allies.

This ideological appeal has found a strong foothold in parts of Africa and Asia, where many developing nations view China’s rise as an opportunity to break free from the shackles of Western dominance. For Japan, the legacy of its imperial past complicates its post-war identity, which is grounded in pacifism, democratic values, and economic growth. While China’s rise is perceived as a return to national glory, Japan remains burdened by its wartime actions, which continue to fuel tensions, particularly with Beijing. This unresolved history hampers Japan’s diplomacy, overshadowing its economic and diplomatic efforts, as issues of reparations, historical memory, and political reconciliation persist.And yet, Japan cannot simply be reduced to a passive recipient of China’s strategic moves.

The reality is that Japan, with its robust economy and advanced technological sector, still holds significant sway in certain parts of the Global South, particularly in Southeast Asia.

Japan has long been a key player in the economic development of this region, offering not just financial assistance but a model of governance and sustainable growth.

But the rise of China has shifted the balance, and Japan is now forced to reckon with the reality that its traditional model—built on the principles of mutual benefit and technical expertise—may not suffice in the face of China’s far-reaching ambitions.

There are many reasons why China is winning over many countries that were once bullied by the West in different ways. China’s approach is a wake-up call for those countries still under colonial hangovers. Furthermore, as the report made an interesting observation, Japan’s relationship with the United States, while essential for regional stability, is becoming increasingly complicated.

The strategic interests of Japan and the US are not always aligned, especially when it comes to China. While the US focuses on containing China’s rise, Japan is caught in a precarious position, balancing its need for security and economic cooperation with China against the demands of its American ally. Japan’s position in this dynamic is fraught with tension—caught between the pressure to align with the US and the reality of an increasingly powerful China on its doorstep.

The question that now looms over Japan’s future is not just one of economic survival but of moral and ideological relevance. As the Global South looks increasingly to China for leadership, Japan must reimagine its role in this shifting world order. Japan’s model of development, founded on transparency, democracy, and sustainability, is being overshadowed by China’s strategic depth and bold vision.

Japan must not only bolster its own economic and diplomatic presence but must also confront the difficult task of reconciling its historical baggage with its aspirations for a secure and prosperous future. To do this, it may be unwise for Japan to stand as a mouthpiece or paper tiger for NATO, learning from the havoc this double-speak military alliance creates.  With Trump’s return, the competition for the soul of the international system intensifies—a system where shared values and principles, rather than hegemonic power, increasingly define the rules of engagement.

In these circumstances, Japan’s ability to adapt, offer a compelling vision for the future of the Global South, and balance its security needs with its diplomatic and economic outreach will determine whether it remains a relevant player or becomes a relic of a past world order, or merely a puppet of a warmongering alliance intent on destabilising the Asia-Pacific.

The coming years will reveal whether Japan can rise to this challenge, or whether China’s inexorable march towards global dominance will leave it in the dust.

(The writer is a journalist and a policy analyst; The views expressed are personal)