Planet Earth is the only place we have to live, yet it is the place we are damaging on an alarming scale. Sooner than we can imagine, we will make it uninhabitable and may be forced to leave — the irony is, we have nowhere to go! We humans are the proverbial frog in simmering water, which boils to death rather than jump out because it cannot comprehend the slow rise in temperature.
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 report, released at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, yet again sounds the alarm, but no one is listening. Though, on one hand, it offers a glimmer of hope: India’s carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise by only 1.4 per cent in 2025 — a slower pace than in previous years. On the other hand, it confirms that the world’s total fossil-fuel CO2 emissions will hit a record 38.1 billion tonnes this year. This effectively means the goal of keeping global warming to 1.5°C is now out of reach. Though Indian data is encouraging, it is not a respite in the long run. It owes itself to two key factors — an early monsoon that reduced energy demand for cooling, and a rapid expansion in renewable energy capacity that helped keep coal consumption low. However, it reveals that clean energy investments and climate-conscious policy interventions are steps in the right direction and are making a difference in real terms. Yet, emissions are still growing in absolute terms. The nation remains among the top four global emitters — alongside China, the United States, and the European Union — who together account for nearly 60 per cent of all fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. The present pace of carbon emissions shows that the global carbon curve has yet to bend downward. The report also paints a worrying picture of the planet’s weakening ability to heal itself.
Moreover, there are real issues that are not even being discussed — natural carbon sinks such as forests and oceans are losing their efficiency in absorbing CO2. About 8 per cent of the rise in atmospheric CO2 since 1960 is attributed to climate change itself eroding the capacity of these sinks.
In essence, nature’s buffers are depleting just when humanity needs them most. Indeed, the Indian story offers some relief — climate resilience and economic growth can indeed go hand in hand, a model to be emulated by other developing countries. Between 2015 and 2024, 35 countries — twice as many as a decade ago — managed to expand their economies while cutting emissions. However, incremental progress will not suffice in a world where the remaining carbon budget to stay below 1.5°C is a mere 170 billion tonnes — just four years’ worth of emissions at current levels.
The window is closing fast. India’s success story, while commendable, must accelerate into a full-scale green revolution. The onus lies squarely on the developed nations - the biggest polluters — who still shy away from their responsibility to save the planet. They forget that Earth has only one atmosphere and one climate; we either swim together or sink together. Unfortunately, at this point, the odds of sinking seem far greater.
