As the southwest monsoon retreats, India is expected to receive 15 per cent more rainfall than normal in October, following bountiful rains during the four-month monsoon season. India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Tuesday said maximum temperatures in October are likely to be above normal in most parts of east-northeast and northwest India.

Notably, extreme weather events during the June to September monsoon season claimed at least 1,528 lives across India, with Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Maharashtra among the worst-hit states. Incidentally, rainfall of 1089.9 mm over east and northeast India this monsoon was the second lowest since 1901 whereas rainfall over northwest India (747.9 mm) in 2025 monsoon season was the highest since 2001 and 6th highest since 1901.

“Normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are expected in other regions of the country during the month,” he added. Mohapatra said most parts of the country are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the post-monsoon season.

The IMD forecast suggests that the Northeast Monsoon (October to December) rainfall over south peninsular India, comprising five meteorological subdivisions of Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka, is most likely to be above normal [more than 112 per cent of the long period average (LPA)].

The LPA of rainfall over South Peninsular India during the October to December season, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is approximately 334.13 mm. The country is likely to receive above-normal rainfall in October (more than 115 per cent of the LPA of 75.4 mm), Mohapatra said. He attributed this to the development of low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, along with intra-seasonal variability and other large-scale atmospheric processes.

The four-month monsoon season came to an end on Tuesday with the country recording eight per cent more than normal rainfall. According to Mohapatra, the country saw a “very successful” monsoon season, though it was marked by many disasters, including cloudburst, landslides and mudslides.

IMD said of the total deaths, 935 were caused by floods and heavy rains, while 570 people were killed in lightning and thunderstorms. Twenty-two deaths were linked to heat waves.

Madhya Pradesh recorded the highest toll at 290, including 153 deaths due to floods and heavy rains and 135 from lightning. Himachal Pradesh reported 141 fatalities, almost all of them caused by torrential rains that triggered flash floods and landslides. Jammu and Kashmir followed with 139 deaths, also largely rain-related.

Maharashtra reported 135 deaths, primarily due to floods, while Bihar registered 62 deaths, all linked to lightning. Uttar Pradesh was another badly-affected state with 201 fatalities, of which 112 were caused by lightning and 69 by heavy rains. Jharkhand reported 129 deaths, with lightning accounting for the bulk at 95. Gujarat saw 31 deaths, Delhi three and Odisha 36. The data shows a sharp regional variation in weather hazards.

According to IMD, India recorded 937.2 mm of rainfall against the normal of 868.6 mm in the entire four-month monsoon season, a surplus of 8 per cent. East and northeast India recorded 1089.9 mm of rainfall, 20 per cent below the normal of 1367.3 mm. Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya saw deficient rainfall in three of the four monsoon months, Mohapatra said.

“Rainfall over east and northeast India this monsoon season was the second lowest since 1901. The lowest rainfall (1065.7 mm) in the monsoon season in the region was recorded in 2013,” Mohapatra said during an online press conference. “Rainfall over east and northeast India has been deficient in recent times. There is a trend (which shows) that rainfall over this region is decreasing since 2020. Studies also show that rainfall over east and northeast India has decreased in the last 20 years,” he said.

Northwest India received 747.9 mm, 27.3 per cent more than the normal of 587.6 mm. Mohapatra said this was the highest since 2001 and the sixth highest since 1901. All districts in northwest India recorded above-normal rainfall in June, August and September, he said. Central India recorded 1125.3 mm of rainfall, 15.1 per cent higher than the normal of 978 mm, while the southern peninsula gauged 9.9 per cent more rainfall than the normal of 716.2 mm.