Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), in what is being seen as a crucial mid-term endorsement of its governance in Punjab, on Monday clinched a decisive victory in the Ludhiana West Assembly bypoll. The party’s candidate, industrialist-turned-politician and sitting Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora, defeated Congress veteran and former Minister Bharat Bhushan Ashu by a comfortable margin of 10,637 votes, reaffirming AAP's grip over urban Punjab, especially amid doubts following its drubbing in the Delhi Lok Sabha polls.

The win is not just a constituency-level triumph, but a symbolic milestone for AAP, which has been under pressure to prove its political resilience and administrative credibility ahead of the 2027 Punjab Assembly elections. While AAP’s energetic and issue-based campaign, early candidate announcement, and promise to elevate Arora to a Cabinet berth clearly worked in its favour securing 39.02 percent of the total 90,160 votes polled, the result also exposed the deep fissures within the Congress camp and the fast-fading relevance of the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in urban Punjab politics.

The low voter turnout — 51.33 percent — also played a pivotal role in determining the result, favouring the party with a stronger and more mobilized cadre. With Congress still entangled in internal factional feuds and BJP grappling with delayed candidate selection and weak booth-level penetration, AAP’s disciplined ground-level organization and sharp messaging tipped the scales in its favour.

AAP’s resounding victory in the Ludhiana West bypoll can be attributed to a smart mix of political foresight, welfare-driven governance, and a carefully orchestrated campaign. One of the biggest advantages was AAP’s early declaration of Sanjeev Arora’s candidature, announced as early as February — months before the bypoll was officially notified. This gave Arora ample time to build grassroots connections, amplify his developmental work funded through MPLADS, and cement his public image as a solution-oriented leader focused on local issues. His groundwork among industrial workers, slum dwellers, and civic associations helped him carve a space beyond traditional vote banks.

The campaign gained further momentum with the direct involvement of AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal and Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann. Their presence on the ground, repeated visits, and public endorsement of Arora — along with the promise of his induction into the Cabinet — added both emotional appeal and political weight. Framing the election as a battle between “humility” and “arrogance”, AAP cleverly turned the bypoll into a referendum on performance and access to power corridors.

The party also benefited significantly from its pro-poor schemes like 600 units of free electricity and monthly ration distribution — tangible benefits that resonated deeply with Ludhiana West’s large working-class population. Being the ruling party added an edge, as voters saw continuity in power as a means to expedite local development. Crucially, the fragmented opposition — with Congress imploding from within and BJP-SAD lacking local traction — enabled AAP to retain a unified vote share in a low-turnout scenario. The win was less a stroke of luck and more the result of a meticulously executed strategy that balanced policy, perception, and people’s pulse.

The Congress’s defeat in the stands as a textbook example of how internal discord and lack of campaign coherence can sabotage even a potentially winnable seat. For Punjab Congress president and Ludhiana MP Amrinder Singh Raja Warring, the result was particularly embarrassing, as it exposed deep fractures within the state unit under his leadership. The party’s candidate, former MLA Bharat Bhushan Ashu, had hoped to redeem his political career following his 2022 defeat and a high-profile arrest in a foodgrain scam. However, he failed to rally his own party behind him. The most damaging blow came from within — Warring himself refrained from campaigning, and other senior leaders like Partap Singh Bajwa, Sanjay Talwar, and Simarjit Bains kept their distance. The last-minute induction of Kamaldeep Kaur Karwal, a known rival of Ashu, further confused the cadre and sapped campaign energy.

On the ground, the Congress machinery was conspicuously missing. Local leaders were absent from booths, voter outreach was patchy, and the party failed to channel public frustration over law and order issues, drug abuse, or economic stagnation into votes. The reduced voter turnout — dropping from 64 percent in 2022 to 51.33 percent in this bypoll — hurt Congress the most, as its traditional base among urban middle-class voters and traders appeared unmotivated. The lack of visible leadership and coherent messaging left many of its supporters disillusioned. Accepting moral responsibility, Ashu resigned as Punjab Congress working president, a move that underscored the internal crisis rather than resolving it.

The saffron party’s underwhelming performance in the Ludhiana West bypoll, despite its lead in the constituency during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, highlighted critical strategic missteps. The most glaring was the delayed announcement of its candidate, Jiwan Gupta, who was named just days before the nomination deadline. This left insufficient time to build campaign momentum or establish a connect with local voters. While the party banked heavily on national narratives and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, it failed to present a localized agenda that addressed pressing urban issues such as traffic congestion, poor sanitation, and the woes of MSMEs — concerns that matter deeply in an industrial hub like Ludhiana.

A notable silver lining for the BJP in Ludhiana West bypoll was its third-place finish with a respectable 22.54 percent of the total votes polled. Party candidate Gupta secured 20,323 votes, outperforming SAD and relegating its candidate to the fourth position. The margin was significant enough to result in the forfeiture of SAD’s security deposit — a symbolic yet telling indicator of shifting urban political dynamics. While the BJP couldn’t replicate its Lok Sabha lead in the segment, the vote share and positioning suggested that with sustained groundwork and local engagement, the party could emerge as a more serious contender in Punjab’s urban constituencies going forward.

Internal discontent further weakened the BJP’s footing. Vikram Sidhu, the 2022 runner-up and a strong local face, was sidelined, leading to widespread disillusionment among grassroots workers. The absence of an energized cadre on the ground was palpable, with only a few leaders like Union Minister Ravneet Singh Bittu showing any campaign presence. While the BJP still managed a respectable 22 percent vote share, the combination of a delayed start, poor organizational coordination, and weak voter engagement ensured it remained a peripheral player in a high-stakes contest.

Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) once wielded significant influence across Punjab, but its steady decline was starkly visible in the Ludhiana West bypoll, where its candidate Parupkar Singh Singh Ghumman garnered a mere nine percent of the vote  â€” forfeiting his deposit. The constituency, a Hindu-dominated urban seat, is emblematic of SAD’s growing irrelevance in non-rural regions. Once dependent on its alliance with the BJP for urban traction, the 2020 break-up left SAD without a foothold in cities like Ludhiana. Despite SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal personally leading the campaign, it lacked energy and coherence. Booth-level mobilization was weak, and there was virtually no digital outreach, signaling a party out of sync with contemporary campaigning. Urban voters, increasingly aligned with AAP’s welfare agenda or BJP’s national pitch, clearly no longer view SAD as a credible alternative in Punjab’s evolving political landscape.

With Sanjeev Arora's victory in Ludhiana West, political realignments have already begun. Arora’s resignation from the Rajya Sabha had sparked intense speculation that AAP supremo Kejriwal might use the vacancy to enter the Rajya Sabha. However, Kejriwal swiftly quashed the rumours, clarifying that the decision would rest with the party’s Political Affairs Committee (PAC) and that he had no plans to head to the Upper House.

Meanwhile, Arora’s induction into the Bhagwant Mann Cabinet appears imminent, especially after the promise made during the campaign. His business acumen and strong industrial backing are likely to earn him a key portfolio, indicating a stronger focus on urban development and economic reforms within the state.

On the opposition front, Congress has entered a phase of internal crisis following Ashu’s defeat and resignation from his party post. The bypoll loss has reignited calls for a complete overhaul of the Punjab Congress leadership. Unless it resolves its factionalism and leadership vacuum, the party risks ceding further political ground.

The BJP and SAD, too, are now under pressure to reinvent themselves. The BJP must go beyond symbolic campaigns and build a credible local structure, while SAD faces the challenge of reviving its relevance in both urban and rural constituencies. Together, these post-poll shifts underline how the Ludhiana West result has reset the political chessboard in Punjab ahead of 2027.

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Reasons for AAP’s Win, Others Loss