As the political battleground heats up for the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections, Dalit voters are emerging as a crucial demographic, with all major parties-Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Congress, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-keenly vying for their support.
With AAP looking to secure a third consecutive term in Delhi, the party's previously solid backing among Dalit voters is now under threat. Experts predict a possible split in Dalit votes, as disillusionment grows and the BJP and Congress intensify their efforts to sway this significant voter base.
Delhi's Dalit community, which comprises a large portion of the electorate, has traditionally been seen as a core support group for AAP, especially during the last two elections. In 2020, AAP managed to win all 12 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) in the capital, securing the backing of Dalit voters that contributed to its resounding victory.
However, this time, the situation seems different. Independent political analyst Kush Ambedkarwadi, founder of the Subaltern Media Foundation, notes that Dalit voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the AAP government, and the ruling party may face a substantial challenge in retaining their support.
While Dalit voters are present across all of Delhi's constituencies, their influence is particularly strong in about 30 to 35 seats where they hold the potential to sway election results, according to Ambedkarwadi.
He argues that although AAP has long resonated with the Dalit community, symbolized by its election logo, the broom, many voters are now disillusioned with the lack of tangible improvements in their lives.
The Valmiki community, in particular, which has a historical connection to the broom symbol due to its association with sanitation work, initially saw AAP as a party that would champion their cause. However, as Ambedkarwadi explains, unfulfilled promises, such as addressing contractual labor issues in municipal services and eliminating manual scavenging have led to growing frustration within the community.
Ambedkarwadi points to the broader dissatisfaction among other prominent Dalit communities, including the Ravidassia and Jatav groups, which have historically supported AAP. A significant number of Dalit leaders from these communities have left the party, signalling a loss of trust. In addition, the AAP government's failure to address longstanding concerns, such as providing stable jobs for sanitation workers and improving working conditions, has further fuelled discontent. The BJP, on the other hand, has taken notice of this shifting sentiment and has been making concerted efforts to court Dalit voters. The party has launched a series of outreach programs in Dalit-majority areas and introduced policies aimed at uplifting the community.
The BJP's promises include the "B R Ambedkar Stipend Scheme," which offers a monthly stipend of Rs 1,000 for SC students studying in industrial training institutes (ITIs), skill centers, and polytechnic colleges. Additionally, the party has pledged to provide free education for students in need, from kindergarten to post-graduation, in government institutions.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah's recent remarks in the Rajya Sabha on Dr. B. R. Ambedkar, which were met with sharp criticism from opposition parties, including AAP and Congress, have only intensified the battle for Dalit votes. While opposition parties have seized on the remarks to question the BJP's commitment to Dalit empowerment, the BJP has aggressively countered these narratives, positioning itself as a party dedicated to the ideals of Ambedkar and promising meaningful change for Dalits.
The Congress party, which has been relatively slow in engaging with Dalit voters, is also attempting to gain ground. Former Delhi minister Rajendra Pal Gautam, once a prominent Dalit face of AAP who resigned from the party to join Congress last year, has criticized AAP for failing to deliver on its promises to the Dalit community.
According to Gautam, while upper-caste voters tend to favour the BJP and some OBC groups also lean towards the saffron party, Dalit voters remain open to different options. He suggests that Dalit votes are likely to be divided between AAP, BJP, and Congress in this election, with many Dalits exploring alternatives due to dissatisfaction with AAP's governance. Gautam, however, dismissed the potential impact of smaller parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Azad Samaj Party (ASP), arguing that these parties have failed to maintain a strong presence or
effectively advocate for Dalit issues.
Despite this, he acknowledges that Congress itself has been slow to mobilize Dalit voters and could have garnered more support had it started campaigning earlier. Nevertheless, he believes that a segment of Dalit voters will continue to back AAP due to its social welfare schemes, particularly those focused on education.
The AAP government has announced several initiatives aimed at retaining Dalit support, including the Dr. Ambedkar Samman Scholarship, which offers financial assistance to Dalit students pursuing higher education abroad. These schemes, AAP hopes, will help bolster its appeal to Dalit voters, especially among those struggling to afford quality education for their children.
According to a recent survey conducted by the National Confederation of Dalit and Adivasi Organisations (NACDAOR) and The Convergent Media, AAP still holds an edge among Dalit voters, despite its declining popularity.
The survey, which included interviews with 6,256 individuals across the capital between January 1 and January 15, revealed that 44 per cent of respondents plan to vote for AAP, compared to
53 per cent who voted for the party in the 2020 elections. Meanwhile, 32 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the BJP, while 21 per cent expressed support for Congress.
As the election approaches, it is clear that Dalit voters will play a decisive role in determining the outcome. While AAP remains the frontrunner among Dalit voters, the growing dissatisfaction within the community, coupled with the aggressive outreach efforts by BJP and the renewed focus of Congress, suggests that the battle for Dalit votes is far from settled. The potential split in Dalit votes may shape not only the outcome of individual constituencies but also the broader political landscape in Delhi.