ASEAN is a group of ten countries of South East Asia which came together as an intergovernmental regional organisation with the motto of “One Vision, One Identity, One Community “ reflecting its commitment to regional unity and integration. ASEAN aims to facilitate and promote cooperation in trade, security, educational and cultural integration and exchanges. It was established in 1967 with its secretariat in Jakarta and comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. India and several major countries, including the US, China, Japan, and Australia, are Dialogue partners of ASEAN, which is indicative of the influence and the importance of ASEAN in the region. The biannual ASEAN Summit is the highest policy-making body of Heads of State/Government of member States.
The ASEAN, ASEAN-India and the East Asia Summits, being held in Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia, from 26th to 28th October 2025, appear to be of significance given the ongoing geopolitical churn and the uncertainties in the global trade regime amidst President Trump’s tariff war unleashed against friends and foes alike. Malaysia has invited all the Heads of State/Government of all member and partner countries, including the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the US President, Donald Trump. However, Prime Minister Modi will not be attending the summit but will address the Asean-India summit virtually while External Affairs Minister (EAM) Mr S Jaishankar is representing India in person.
Interestingly, the US has been a dialogue partner of ASEAN since 1977 and has a comprehensive Strategic Partnership marked by close economic, trade and investment ties; the US is the largest foreign direct investor in ASEAN.
Among the various items on the agenda, the Summit is expected to admit Timor-Leste as the 11th member, the first expansion since 1999. There will be renewed focus on economic integration of the grouping while addressing issues of concern like the civil war in Myanmar, the South China Sea disputes, US-China competition and rivalry, shifts in the international trade system, and the impact of the Gaza and Ukraine conflicts; cybercrimes and cyber scams are expected to be on the agenda as the incidents of cyber scams and frauds have increased radically in recent times in someAsean countries.
Since President Trump is attending the ASEAN Summit, there was an expectation that PM Modi and President Trump could meet on the sidelines of the Summit to iron out differences and hasten the conclusion of a mutually beneficial bilateral trade deal, with ongoing negotiations making little headway, and finalisation has been left for a political decision.
President Trump continues to exert pressure on India to agree to the terms and conditions set out by the US and appears unwilling to respect India’s redlines on key aspects. In this context, it makes little sense for a bilateral face-to-face meeting between the two leaders, especially in light of President Trump’s style of unilaterally pushing his agenda and views without paying little heed to the concerns of the other party. This approach appears to be working, as far as the US is concerned, with some other countries, and he is hoping to unnerve and coerce India and PM Modi into toeing the line through further threats of an increase in tariffs and imposing sanctions on Indian oil companies purchasing oil from Russia.
Hence any bilateral meeting at this stage could prove to be counterproductive and futile, along with the unwelcome possibility of President Trump once again taking credit for the India-Pakistan ceasefire in May 2025. This is particularly relevant as, apparently, by all accounts, ostensibly President Trump is attending the ASEAN Summit especially to preside over the signing of the peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia for which President Trump had claimed credit, to burnish his credentials as a peacemaker.
Coming to the ASEAN-India dialogue partnership, this has evolved over the years since its inception in 1992, beginning with a sectoral partnership, then elevated to a full dialogue partnership in December 1995 and further to the Summit level Partnership in 2002; a strategic partnership was established in 2012. In a sign of the increasing strength of the ties, a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership(CSP) was signed with ASEAN countries in 2022, which covers cooperation in defence, economic and technological sectors.
ASEAN countries are a crucial element of India’s Act East policy and also key to India’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific region, given their strategic location in the region and the historic cultural and economic ties between India and ASEAN countries. Further, the ASEAN-India partnership helps to counterbalance China’s strong influence in the region, promotes regional stability in the Indo-Pacific and a strong defence and security partnership are key features of the strategic importance of the relationship. ASEAN is an important trade partner for India with bilateral trade of US$ 122.6 billion in 2023-24.
The ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) has boosted economic and trade cooperation and was signed 15 years ago, and is now being reviewed in the light of the resetting of the existing global trade regime. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), comprising 15 countries, was an important development of the ASEAN bloc, but India left the RCEP in 2019 amidst concerns of China’s trade imbalance with India, and fears that Chinese goods could flood Indian markets through third countries that could hurt India’s SMEs and agricultural sectors. India is now reconsidering rejoining the RCEP due to the uncertainties created by the US tariffs in a bid to maximise access for Indian products in RCEP countries, including in China and to this end, India has proposed to get written assurances from ASEAN countries and China.
ASEAN is an important regional bloc shaping economic growth and stability in Southeast Asia, even though it is sometimes unable to or unwilling to take specific steps to address challenges in other spheres, like security and conflicts between members. The reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US make it incumbent on ASEAN to also diversify into new markets or scale up in existing markets and hence it is also looking at strengthening its partnership with countries like India. With high US tariffs on China, there is the possibility that China may divert its exports away from the US to ASEAN markets, which could impact domestic production in these countries, posing a risk to current growth and manufacturing in sectors such as automotive and autoparts, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
All in all the global economic and trade environment is in flux and the ASEAN and related Summits are taking place at a time when global geopolitical and geo-economic turmoil has added a degree of uncertainty in all international affairs and partnerships and each nation is making efforts to ensure its interests are safeguarded while nimbly navigating unforeseen challenges. The outcomes of the various ASEAN Summits will be closely watched by all countries with expectations that these could lead to a win-win for the region and the world.
