After a bitter exchange of words between political leaders in the high-octane Bihar campaign, the first phase for the Assembly elections in the State is scheduled on November 6, when 121 constituencies spread across 18 districts will go to the polls. The campaign for the first phase ended on Tuesday evening.
There has been an intense campaign by BJP leaders led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the 2020 elections, the NDA alliance secured victory with 125 seats, while the opposition alliance won 110 seats.
The NDA is banking on women who, buoyed by the financial support from the Union and the State Government, remain loyal to Nitish Kumar. PM Modi on Tuesday urged the women to ensure that they turn out in huge numbers to ensure a mega win for the NDA and forfeiture of deposits of those who insulted Chhathi Maiya and brought jungle raj to Bihar.
The INDIA bloc is assuming a change in tides following the last-minute outreach of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi to the Mallahs, who together with EBCs comprise 4.6 per cent of voters in the State. The total population of these EBCs in the State is 1,76,16,978.
This time, the caste equation favours the INDIA bloc. In 2020, the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) led by Mukesh Sahni, who represents the Mallahs, had walked out of the alliance during a ticket distribution announcement and contested under the NDA banner. The Mallahs only constitute 2.6 per cent of Bihar’s population and had voted for the NDA.
This time, Sahni is part of the INDIA bloc and has been promised the position of deputy chief minister.
Similary, Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) has joined the INDIA bloc to contest three seats for the Paan community, with a population of about one crore spread across 34 districts of the State. In the last Assembly elections, 2.6 per cent votes from Sahni’s caste group went to the NDA. If those votes go with the INDIA bloc this time, that means a loss of 5.25 per cent in terms of seats for the NDA. Likewise, IIP’s 1.72 per cent votes in favour of the INDIA bloc could result in a loss of 3.5 per cent seats for the NDA. If just these two castes split from the NDA, the NDA alliance will incur a loss of about 7.75 per cent of the votes.
However, NDA has this time has Chirag Paswan, who is contesting from 29 seats and commands over 5.5 per cent votes. In the 2020 election, Chirag differed with Nitish and inflicted considerable damage to the INDIA bloc in 30 seats. Another factor in the last elections was Nitish’s personal image as Sushan Babu, which could garner 15-20 per cent Muslim votes for the JDU. However, this time the community will prefer to vote for the RJD, Congress combine.
Another factor is the migrant population. Unlike during the previous Assembly election, which happened during the COVID-19 pandemic, when migrants were restricted to their villages, this time, migrants have returned to their places of work.
Contesting from 236 seats, Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj Party seems to be a damaging factor more than the BJP and JDU. Youth votes will be a fractured one as PK (Prashant Kishore) has swayed with his eloquence and the lone political party talking about issues concerning the youth employability.
Voting for the remaining 122 seats will be held in the second phase on November 11. Out of the total 243 assembly constituencies, 203 are General seats, 38 are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and two are reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs).
