Donald Trump’s H-1B dilemma
As President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his second term, the debate over H-1B visas for skilled foreign workers is heating up
As the US President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office on January 20, he faces a unique challenge. The issue of immigration and the H-1B visa has become a contentious point among the two key groups. He is trying to satisfy the conflicting interests of the billionaire tech community, who heavily fund his campaigns, and his ‘America First’ base.
Trump’s recent favourable statements on H-1B visas for foreign skilled workers have sparked renewed discussions on the future of this critical programme. The New York Post quoted Trump, “I’ve always liked the visas, I have always been in favour of the visas.
That’s why we have them.” He added: “I have many H-1B visas on my properties. I’ve been a believer in H-1B visas. I have used it many times. It’s a great program.”
Trump admitted. Trump has backed Elon Musk and his other wealthy funders from Silicon Valley ( South Africa-born Musk had an H1B visa himself). While tech leaders want a liberal H-1B visa regime, ‘America First’ hardliners wish for stricter restrictions on immigration at all levels.
In his first term, Trump prioritised protecting American citizens’ interests, which had significant implications on the H-1B visas. ‘America First’ advocates argue that H-1B visas take jobs away from American workers. The looming question is, will the Trump’s second term may prioritise American workers’ jobs, or it could revert to the traditional Republican belief that immigration primarily benefits employers. Debates arose over H-1B visas following Trump’s appointment of India-born Sriram Krishnan as his advisor on artificial intelligence. It caused divisions within Trump’s team—opponents of the H-1B visa claim that the immigrants take away American jobs. The intriguing question is whether a second Trump term will prioritise jobs for American workers or revert to the traditional Republican stance that immigration is primarily beneficial for employers. Influential supporters like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy argue that H-1B visas are crucial for addressing the US engineers shortage.
Musk, who built his empire, and Vicek Ramasawamy have strongly supported the program. Musk expressed his readiness to go to war over it. They highlight a significant skills gap in the US labour market, particularly in STEM fields.
What is an H-1B visa, and why is there such controversy surrounding it? Would India suffer if H-1B visas were eliminated? The visa system for skilled workers from other countries was introduced in 1990 by President Bush to work legally in the US. The visa is for three years. Applicants must have a job lined up with a US-based sponsoring company or institution. Since 2004, the United States has limited the number of new H-1B visas to 85,000 yearly.
This cap includes 20,000 visas for international students with advanced degrees from US universities. In the fiscal year 2023, the US approved just over 386,000 H-1B applications. For the fiscal year 2024, there were 758,994 eligible registrations, an increase from 474,421 in 2023. Most approved applicants work in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). The issue is more than just an economic concern; new developments in artificial intelligence and advanced computing technology make it vital for US defence and national security. India receives approximately 72 per cent of H-1B visas, while Chinese citizens account for around 12 per cent.
Eliminating country-specific caps could increase job opportunities for Indians in the United States. It is a significant concern for many prospective applicants. Major employers in the tech industry, including Indian companies like Infosys, TCS, HCL, and Wipro, represent 35 per cent of the top 10 beneficiaries of H-1B visas. Beginning with FY 2025, USCIS changed from an employer-based to a beneficiary-centric registration system, following the agency’s “serious concerns” noted after the FY 2024 registration period. Amazon, the largest H-1B sponsor, saw a steep decline in approvals, dropping from over 11,000 in 2023 to just above 9,000 in 2024. Major U.S. companies, including tech giants like Amazon and Google, are significantly scaling back their sponsorship of H-1B visas. Indian IT firms, including Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), also recorded substantial reductions. Not everyone wants to get rid of the visa system.
According to the American Enterprise Institute and the Partnership for a New American Economy, increasing the H-1B visa cap could generate 1.3 million new jobs. It would contribute approximately $158 billion to the US GDP by 2045. H-1B visa holders often add to the workforce instead of taking jobs from US workers. Trump’s recent statement about H-1B visas has given hope to many visa seekers, especially Indians.
He stated that the US needs skilled and intelligent people and promised more job opportunities. It provides a positive outlook for H-1B visas.H-1B visa holders often complement, rather than compete with, US workers.
Now many H-1B visa seekers are hopeful after Trump has sided with Musk. He claimed that there was a need for skilled and intelligent workers. His promise of unprecedented job opportunities offers a positive outlook for those seeking H-1B visas. The Indian government closely monitors any backlash against Indian H-1B visa holders in the US.
(The writer is a popular columnist; views expressed are personal)
